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Linn's Reports Declining US Market Values

 
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Posted 08/12/2017   07:31 am  Show Profile Bookmark this topic Add angore to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
In the Graded Stock Market report in the August 21st issue of Linn's, Linn's reports declining values.

Linn's tracks 63 stamps/sets in 8 grades (504 data point) and reported 261 have new values with most declines. For example C13-C15 Zeps in VF Unused (not NH) are valued at $1105. I would think NH would be a better data point.

My question gets to how many graded VG 50 stamps change hangs to gather any real data.

Another indicator of trends is the page count of Linn's. It is now at 36 pages per issue except for the monthly version.

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Al

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Posted 08/12/2017   08:24 am  Show Profile Check revenuecollector's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add revenuecollector to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Not shocking. However, many specialty areas are still vibrant.
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Posted 08/12/2017   09:03 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rustyc to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Over the years, I too have noted, sadly, Linn's declining page count. It doesn't seem like that long ago when it was regularly 50+ pages.
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Posted 08/12/2017   12:27 pm  Show Profile Check ddaann's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add ddaann to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I'm not so sure. My experience is that the market for both US and foreign stamps is quite healthy in the US, Canada, Australia, GB, and continental Europe.
Dan (ddaannv on eBay)
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Posted 08/12/2017   3:05 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add shermae to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I agree with Dan in general, though per my post in another thread (quoted verbatim from Kelleher Auction's magazine), certain previously popular areas are flat to down. For example France, Germany, Switzerland, Austria, Liechtenstein, Benelux, etc. I find in particular that lots of "rare" German material is widely available on eBay with no buyers. Sellers are stuck to the notion that Scott's values are a reasonable guidepost for market pricing and won't budge despite a glut of material and poor sales. Scott's is probably ok for these areas as long as sellers (and buyers) realize that the discount from Scott's suggested value is much greater than for more popular areas.

I find the most competition on eBay for Commonwealth definitives (KGVI - QE2 in particular the recess printed material), China, Korea, French, Belgian, Italian, and Dutch Colonies (though not so much for Spanish Colonies), Indian States, Malaya, Hong Kong, and certain Middle East eg 1920s-50s Syria & Lebanon, Oman, Iran, and Qatar.

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Posted 08/12/2017   6:22 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add angore to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Seller prices drop much slower than they rise. The health of the hobby is really about velocity so if the price drops increase sales then that is good sign.
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Al
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Posted 08/13/2017   12:47 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add hy-brasil to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
My question gets to how many graded VG 50 stamps change hands to gather any real data.

I was never really impressed by those reports. Here, it's limited to 63 stamps which does not reflect the whole of the US market.

The coin world's weekly dealer Greysheet and its monthly supplement is what a price report should really be. All grades are covered, most every US coin is between the two reports. It's something that's more essential in that world, but inquiring minds still want to know in the stamp world.
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Posted 08/25/2017   5:13 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add USClassicsStore to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Having recently returned after a 15 year absence, to me the decline in the market is palpable. Clearly there have been significant market shifts in how and where stamps are sold. It appears that eBay has had a large apparent effect on the market. In a larger sense, the internet has actually created a more efficient market in the sense that much greater information about pricing and great availability of access of buyers to sellers exists. Similar to stock market theory, this insures that sale pricing more closely matches value as defined by a balance of supply and demand. This in additional to the significant demographic shifts that have been affecting the market since the 1970's.
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Edited by USClassicsStore - 08/25/2017 5:18 pm
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Posted 08/25/2017   6:16 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add angore to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
The problem is Scott is behind on values. They value the Legends of the West around $220 and can easily be had for 40% of that. The normal "dealer price list" concept is history.
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Al
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