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Modern Error Stamps Market

 
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Posted 10/31/2018   12:47 am  Show Profile Bookmark this topic Add rismoney to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
I have recently taken interest in 1940+ error stamps. I have noticed overall that most stamps in this category have been bought up and consolidated by only a few online sellers, some of who I wouldn't wish to deal with.

After analyzing the data around this, I see 10s of thousands of listings say on hip and eBay, but only a microset (literally 10s) that have bids. SAN is a smaller ecosystem with only a few lots of limited material, and rarely decent pricing, though arguably better quality.

Is there literally no liquidity in this? As a perspective buyer of this material would I just be overpaying at this point with no value for future growth as the market is literally showing it can't support these prices now? Is noone paying $200-$500/stamp, because it's just a bad spend?

Looking for opinions for modern rare material. It would appear it's a buyers market but the sellers are not pricing as such. A rarity is only worth what someone is willing to pay, and I don't see so much as a nibble on these.



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Posted 10/31/2018   05:37 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add hy-brasil to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
The online sellers are also largely the total sellers group of modern errors. A seller buys an entire error sheet or the handful available, sell a few a year in a controlled manner and basically control the market and maintain the price. Meanwhile, they have their money tied up in the unsold portion for a long time.

Modern errors are indeed rare. So are the buyers for them. This has been true for many years. Even looking at the more accessible/cheaper EFO market, prices have been pretty much static. And what if a second error sheet or ten turns up years down the road after only one is reported known?

If what you want to do is speculate, which is really what you are proposing, stamps is not the place to be. As with other collectibles, the market for specific items can be cyclical or can just plain die from disinterest. The Hummel figurines market should be examined. Further, the cycle might be longer than your life or may change drastically, faster than you can react to sell off (low liquidity, then). The Ryukyu Islands had a decent collector following, eventually got heavily speculated in and later crashed in a matter of days. It's never really recovered, certainly vs. inflation. You can also own a great stamp rarity, certified, and find the opinion changed or withdrawn years later. Collect to collect and expect something back monetarily when done, but do not necessarily expect a profit.

This might have saved you thousands, perhaps millions, and the answer cost you nothing. A donation to SCF would be a nice gesture if not good karma. No obligation, though. :)
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Edited by hy-brasil - 10/31/2018 05:40 am
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Posted 11/01/2018   12:24 am  Show Profile Check eyeonwall's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add eyeonwall to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
"would I just be overpaying at this point with no value for future growth"

This would be true for almost every segment of the stamp market, with the possible exception of nosebleed classic rarities

As for errors, Billy overprices his (like everything he offers)
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Posted 11/01/2018   07:23 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add michaelschreiber to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
rismoney:

Yes, a bad spend, as you call it, at those high prices.

Most collectors are happy collecting the major catalog numbers and working with a preprinted album with spaces for those numbers, so demand for fun varieties that have no spaces in albums usually is tepid at best.

hy-brasil (a few frames up) said it very well.
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Posted 11/05/2018   4:33 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rismoney to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I appreciate all the replies, and trying to understand the marketplace and economics better for stamps, as a collector with ambition.


`Most collectors are happy collecting the major catalog numbers and working with a preprinted album with spaces for those numbers`

This is interesting, because if you follow the herd of most collectors you are led astray, putting worthless stamps in more expensive mounts. I was this way as a kid collecting stamps, and bought as many stamps as I could with the money at hand, instead of 1 stamp with the same dollar value, or saving up a few weeks for 1 bigger purchase. Quantity trumped catalog prices.

wrt overpaying: `This would be true for almost every segment of the stamp market, with the possible exception of nosebleed classic rarities`

I expect old inventories are going to continuously dump onto the market in the next 20+ years as the boomers have their collections pilfered and stamps, except for great condition classics and rarities, will be everywhere.

Now when you look at the rarities, the internet hasn't increased their market size, but the availability is mostly constant. You can buy a CIA, and a Jenny with low friction any year. The only thing that stops you from getting in on it, is money.

From an investment perspective, it would take under 1M to corner the CIA market. But unfurling it ends up becoming a detriment.
Not because you can't find 50 ppl to pony up 20k to recoup, but because as the supply becomes available, even slow released, once a few pieces are on the market, it saturates, and competition drives it back down. If 4 units hit the market, someone will drop to 18k to "let it go" for liquidity's sake.

I rarely see people paying premiums over catalog on ANY modern auction material and I have done a ton of price research. I attribute this not to condition, or bad pricing by Scott. I believe it is availability that makes even a rarity just a click away. You don't have to know a guy, who knows a guy that deals.

`Collect to collect and expect something back monetarily when done, but do not necessarily expect a profit.`

Because...noone really knows what to buy. Some of my garbage pail kids were way better investments, than my stamps or baseball cards. My scrubs, in all, bring me the joy. Finding the error amidst kilo, priceless.

I am not looking to speculate, just hone my modern craft, and not buy something for $500 that gets sold 6 months later for $200.

For modern, I see quantity error lots to be probably the best approaches to getting south of 30% of SCV. Condition of modern is expected to just be perfect, so it's largely not a factor.








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Posted 11/05/2018   10:03 pm  Show Profile Check eyeonwall's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add eyeonwall to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
"Condition of modern is expected to just be perfect, so it's largely not a factor."

When it comes to EFO's, many of them come to the market via the general public who do not know how to handle stamps, so perfection is not always te case. (not to mention so,me dealers and collectors do not know how to handle stamps either). Also sometimes the cause of an error is a paper jam which results in damaged error stamps.
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