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Do You Think Stamps Form The 1980s Till 2013 Will Increase In Price?

 
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Valued Member
United States
192 Posts
Posted 01/01/2019   6:09 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add hoosierboy to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Just saw a news feed called, "Collectables that are now worthless" [https://www.msn.com/en-us/money/per...ndhp#image=3 ]

Yep, stamps are the second thing listed.

But, don't panic, yet. Eliminating the beanie babies and cabbage patch dolls and other fad items you are left with a group of items including stamps that were main stream collectables for more than a generation.

Now, you can panic. It looks to me like we have a disturbance in the force. Yes, yoda, Star Wars did not make the list?

Collecting anything physical especially large groups of anything is declining. Such is life in this "experience era". It is more appealing to say, "I did this" rather than say "I own this"?
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Pillar Of The Community
United States
639 Posts
Posted 01/01/2019   6:16 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add erilaz to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
But digital photographic evidence of same seems to be a necessary component. "Pictures or it didn't happen."


Quote:
Here's a Xmas Miracle: a half-way legible shpritzy pictorial slogan cancel on a GPU (Genuinely Postally Used) cover.

All the Christmas cards that I got in the mail this season had that same shpritzy slogan cancel. So did a couple of recent eBay purchases.
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Edited by erilaz - 01/01/2019 6:23 pm
Valued Member
United States
192 Posts
Posted 01/02/2019   07:24 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add hoosierboy to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Morning all,

How about using vanity stamps on your Christmas mail? Great way to show off a selfie from your best adventure for the year. Go all out. Get a postal mailer permit and avoid the spray cancel, too?

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Pillar Of The Community
United States
3607 Posts
Posted 01/02/2019   12:11 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add ikeyPikey to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
.
Vanity stamps are the perfect offset to the Xmas spirit, what with all that humility & grace.

I have not seen a local post office with a slot for metered mail; those seem to be gone with the wind.

That leaves getting a window clerk to place my MPP mail in with the metered mail (the suggested way to avoid the shpritzy cancel) which, frankly, I can't see happening at any of my local branches, where there is always a wait, the clerks turn-over too quickly to be-friend, and it would be tough to explain what I'm doing, let alone again & again.

I've resolved that, if I ever get a round tuit, I'll be placing my MPP cancels a full inch from the top of the cover/card so that the shpritzy cancel will at least leave them neatly visible.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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Valued Member
United States
64 Posts
Posted 01/02/2019   1:50 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add CL_Arctos to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
A wise man once told me never to collect stamps expecting them to become valuable and make you a profit. Collect stamps for the history, artwork, and just the fun of the hobby. I'd say most modern stamps are a perfect reason for following this mantra. On the same note, I happen to like a lot of modern stamp designs because they're fun or have interesting printing methods. I like to display them so friends and family who come to visit might ask about them and I can tell them the story behind them.
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Valued Member
United States
253 Posts
Posted 01/02/2019   3:52 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add craigk to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Changing times and changing tastes with deeper pockets. Stamps, to baseball cards, to comic books to sports memorabilia, then on vintage autos. At the Pebble Beach auction this past summer, 25 cars sold for over $1 million each, with 11 going at $3 mill plus. A small catalog of 123 lots tallied $117 mill.
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Edited by craigk - 01/02/2019 3:53 pm
Valued Member
United States
155 Posts
Posted 01/09/2019   10:10 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Louise411 to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

What does - philatelically contrived; Mean?
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Valued Member
United States
392 Posts
Posted 01/09/2019   11:04 pm  Show Profile Check docgfd's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add docgfd to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
'Philatelically contrived' would be any instance where a stamp collector creates a collectible that would never have existed had he or she not contrived it. For example, a cover mailed to the electric company to pay a bill would be considered a normal, or commercial, usage vs an un-addressed cover where a stamp collector used two bisected stamps to make up the correct rate and then talked the clerk at the PO into cancelling them would be considered philatelically contrived.
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Pillar Of The Community
United States
1015 Posts
Posted 01/09/2019   11:19 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Hal to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I doubt that the current MNH "new issues" price increases will not even keep up with inflation. However, I do see those same new issues, used correctly on cover and in period at the correct rate will command high prices in 100 years, or less and here's why.

Today, less people and businesses are using the conventional mail systems, in all countries, to correspond. Today, due to the high cost of basic postal rates, the preferred form of communication is e-mail, Facebook, Twitter, etc. It is faster, cheaper, reliable and far more cost effective than conventional mail.

A piece of correspondence that might take a week, going coast-to-coast, or even 100 miles, now takes mere seconds. Businesses use Facebook, Tweeter, E-mail, Telemarketing ... all types of social media today versus the old fashioned lick'n'stick a stamp on a piece of direct mail piece, again, for the same reasons. Fifteen years ago, mailboxes were flooded with direct mail envelopes (with stamps) but postal rates were cheaper then.

Fifteen years ago, you could walk up to any post office window and request current commemoratives and the mail clerk had them, but not now. Walk up to most post offices windows and request a specific new issue and you probably get a "deer-in-the-headlights" look -- especially in smaller offices. You'll get a responses like, "We aren't going to carry that stamp", or "I've never seen that stamp!" You rarely see commemoratives being used on mail and when you do, it comes from a philatelic source -- Dealer, Club, or eBay Seller, Philatelic Friend, etc. Get the picture?

So, while there will always be "tons" of "mint never hinged" material peddled by stamp dealers and collectors the real philatelic gems will be in period used covers and postal stationary -- even today -- even if they do have a dreaded stamp dealer corner card. they should be world a whole lot more than a mint stamp or plate block. The covers are few and far between...even today.


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Edited by Hal - 01/09/2019 11:21 pm
Valued Member
United States
273 Posts
Posted 01/10/2019   05:33 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rismoney to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Hal, I agree with you. Other writings on the wall: I've been hearing from folks "I stopped collecting modern... I can't handle self adhesive... Rates are too high...too many issues".

What you said here about on cover bolsters this. Buy what noone cares about, but be sure there is low supply.

I also think the current discount pricing against Scott cannot continue. Those prices will be readjusting, either in catalog down, or stamps up. The descrepancy even on higher quality issues has led me to believe accumulation should be happening amid the sellers flood.

History is going to look very favorably on the post stamp craze era. When noone is interested, is when you should be. Demand isn't here today, which is why prices are so low amid the glut, but alas the sky isn't falling.

For me, as a modern US EFO guy, I can't get over my ability to pay a few hundred for a 1/50 or lower rarity. My kids/grandkids are going to look at my collection with awe, that I have the rarest stamps of the last 100 years.

At auction this week,I saw a perfect stamp, datz 1/10 modern rarity go for less than 50% ($800) with Scott over $1700. I would have bought it, but I am overcommitted to other other buys this month. Less than 10 collections can hold it... Some percentage will be lost to philately. There is so much upside. If it drops to 500 or 250? This is not 40000 dropping to 20000. It's chump change when 1 or 2 Costco outings are equivlant to the downside risk.




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Edited by rismoney - 01/10/2019 05:34 am
Valued Member
United States
192 Posts
Posted 01/10/2019   09:11 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add hoosierboy to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Hal and all,

Yep, on cover will be a winner of sorts. The problem is trying to get it cancelled locally. Most will get bagged and sent to be processed and cancelled at the big area wide processing center. At one time there were over 90 small post offices in the area of southeastern Indiana I collect. Today there are twelve. All mail, except for hand backs if you can get one, is postmarked in Cincinnati, Ohio. UGH!
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Pillar Of The Community
United States
3607 Posts
Posted 01/11/2019   3:44 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add ikeyPikey to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
When no one is interested, is when you should be.


Contrarian thinking can be fun; just ask any oppositional toddler.

But on Wall Street they teach newbie traders that "the trend is your friend".

Sometimes, things just go out of style, and stay there.

Q/ When was the last time you used an electric coffee percolator?


Quote:
My kids/grandkids are going to look at my collection with awe, that I have the rarest stamps of the last 100 years.


Grandkids? Some of us are reluctant to predict that generations' SOGI (Sexual Orientation Gender Identity), religion, politics, occupation ... hobbies?

Invest U$D 10,000 at 5% and, in 42 years, your grandchildren will have U$D 80,000 ... and a rare grandparent.


Quote:
Less than 10 collections can hold it ...


I once mentioned something about EKUs to an older, wiser collector, and he scoffed: EKUs are a sucker's bet, he explained, because it is only the EKU until an earlier EKU comes along, and then the premium that you paid evaporates.

I love the hobby, I support the hobby, I promote the hobby ... but I am reluctant to make promises based on the hobby.

A mis-print of something that almost nobody cares about is still going to be something that almost nobody cares about.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey (who wonders if the monetary value in ephemera is the one thing that might live up to its name)
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