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Future Value Of Stamps

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Posted 03/06/2019   09:07 am  Show Profile Bookmark this topic Add AravindMichigan to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
What do you guys think will be the future valuation of stamps
? I understand most of the 1950s doesnt have much value now but do you guys think it will be much higher after say - 50 years?Do you guys see scott values of stamps increased compared to 10 yrs before?
I think in future it will be all barcoded stamps and I think most colored stamps will not be used.. this could mean old colored stamps gets an antique value or it could be considered worthless.. let me know your thoughts..
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United Kingdom
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Posted 03/06/2019   09:40 am  Show Profile Check GeoffHa's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add GeoffHa to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Stamps that were common and cheap 100 years ago are still, by and large, common and cheap. Most stamps will continue to be worth pennies - or may not be sellable at all if the collecting market continues to contract.
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Canada
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Posted 03/06/2019   09:56 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add mirman to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
As catalogue value sometimes increase over the years, your stamps will technically be worth more. So if catalogue presently gives a catalogue value of 25 cents, the value in 50 years could be 50 cents catalogue value.

But...

As Geoff mentioned stamps that are worth a penny now will probably be worth 2 cents but just like today more than likely the demand would not exist.

Dan
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Posted 03/06/2019   10:20 am  Show Profile Check 51studebaker's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add 51studebaker to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Historic trending of the US Zeppelin stamps
http://www.stampsmarter.com/learnin...gTrends.html

When accounting for inflation, the catalog value has not really increased over the decades.
Don
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Posted 03/06/2019   10:24 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add AravindMichigan to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
@51studebaker That was interesting..so it looks like values peaked in 80s and now came down..i think as Geoffha mentioned , collecting market contiunues to contract..youth is not interested in taking this up as hobby..
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Posted 03/06/2019   10:26 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rismoney to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
AravindMichigan: here is the issue. Stamps in the last 100 years, were nearly all printed (there are exceptions) in quantities in the 10s and 100s of millions. These stamps will NEVER increase. Anyone who wants them, can get them in bulk from 100s of sellers, that have no shortage of material. Anyone who tells you otherwise is trying to sell you on an idea that isn't real. There are millions of stamps on eBay, priced under face that sit there month after month without a buyer in sight.


The hobbyist trying to complete year sets for the last 100 years will have a fantastic looking album, but no value within it (outside of a maximum of face).
In fact, now that the post office began printing forever stamps, you are downside protected. Instead of a 3c stamp, still being worth 3c, a forever stamp has staying power locked in. So this has been an improvement.


Quote:

So if catalogue presently gives a catalogue value of 25 cents, the value in 50 years could be 50 cents catalogue value.


This may be true, but 50cents will be worth 10c.


As far as the future is concerned, I have put my money where my mouth is, and that is in the modern error markets over the last couple of years. I believe that the last 100 years of stamps include some really interesting rarities/scarcities that are underappreciated in value and viewing desirability. For a few hundred bucks you can get a stamp under 1/50 available. Now whether someone will pay more for it in 5,10,20,50 years, is something noone knows. It will probably pale compared to a similar investment in AAPL, but if you treat it like a hobby the reward is immediate. This much I know.








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Posted 03/06/2019   10:27 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add pennyblackie to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Prices peaked in 1982 and declined again?
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Posted 03/06/2019   10:35 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rismoney to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
If you compare buyign a mint Zepp set in 1982, versus a similar investment in the MSFT ipo in 1986, your opportunity cost would be ~3 million. The finest c3a, only sold for ~1.6M.
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Edited by rismoney - 03/06/2019 10:36 am
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Posted 03/06/2019   4:12 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add AravindMichigan to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I found this interesting paper on future of philately ..a good read.

http://www.abps.org.uk/Philatelic_C...hilately.pdf
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Posted 03/06/2019   4:15 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Like anything it is about supply and demand. Anything.
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Posted 03/06/2019   8:46 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Philazilla to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I would love to get a hold of the historical catalog values for all stamps for all years (probably limited to singles mint hinged and mint used). There would be some very interesting results of an analysis of that data! I think the zeppelin issue is likely not a representative one. Based on the handful of old Scott catalogs I have, they spiked more than any others in the 80s when people were speculating with them. I still don't know why they sell for so much. Every auction has at least a handful and usually more than a dozen, eBay has hundreds, and dealers have tons of them. There seem to be more zeppelin stamps than collectors and they apparently change hands all the time.
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Posted 03/06/2019   9:27 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add codehappy to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
I still don't know why they sell for so much. Every auction has at least a handful and usually more than a dozen, eBay has hundreds, and dealers have tons of them. There seem to be more zeppelin stamps than collectors and they apparently change hands all the time.


Like the dollar value Columbians, German zepps and the Posthorn set, the Penny Black, USA #1, the 5-shilling Sydney Harbour Bridge, etc. they are stamps that are commonly seen, but popular with collectors for one reason or another.

There are lots of stamps that are scarcer, as you note, but not many more popular; hence they tend to trade at a higher value than stamps of similar number with lower demand.
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Posted 03/07/2019   09:15 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Joness to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I am at a project right now but I will let you you know.
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Posted 03/07/2019   10:30 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rismoney to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
There are lots of stamps that are scarcer, as you note, but not many more popular; hence they tend to trade at a higher value than stamps of similar number with lower demand.


What you describe here, is a market inefficiency and one can expect on an unknown timeline for this contradiction of efficient-market hypothesis to correct. The only issue is with time. It might take 50 or 100 years. For me, I rather hold the scarcer issues, than yet another Zepp set when push comes to shove. My belief is the deluge for this will hit, when some big dealers and collections die off and the heirs liquidate en masse. People holding out, will be left...holding the bag so to speak.





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Posted 03/07/2019   10:56 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add AravindMichigan to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
hey rismoney, how did you get that quote in a box in your response..i dont see that option to reply to someone or to a point when I reply ..
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Posted 03/07/2019   10:58 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rismoney to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
(quote)hey rismoney, how did you get that quote in a box in your response..i dont see that option to reply to someone or to a point when I reply .. (/quote)

Easiest way to explain : I copy and paste, like the above line, and then replace the round parenthesis, with squares brackets.
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