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Corona Flu And The Stamp Market .

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Pillar Of The Community

United States
4627 Posts
Posted 03/29/2020   1:24 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this topic Add floortrader to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
It has been a interesting two weeks so far .

This is about the future ,so no historical information is aviable or used to predict what I am going to say .

What I seen so far in the stamp market is a very active buying for cheaper and low price lots on eBay ,that is the stuff under $15.00.Mostly under $10.00 items , Sales are improving during the past two weeks .

Now the stamp auction market for better and higher prices items is more of a guess at this point because we are just two weeks into it
.
The first questions that needs to be addressed is who are the buyers . Well they are business people , with the stock market taken a nose dive plus add to this a lot of business are closing down or running very limited activity . It is not hard for me to make a bold statement that the buyers are going to be very limited in any stamp activity .

Sure a few people will still want items but with this situation ,it will be a reduce interest to spend money . The question I can't answer is are the auction firms willing to let prices fall or are they going to pull items and wait a few months to let the buyers return .

As for me it is not a time to be a buyer ,I am going to wait and see how we look in two or three months .
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8033 Posts
Posted 03/29/2020   1:47 pm  Show Profile Check 51studebaker's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add 51studebaker to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
The collectible investor market goes up when inflation rises (i.e. back in the 1970s-1980s) but this is not the issue with the current or near current market. At times of world uncertainty the precious metal market rises, not the collectibles market.
I do agree that with people sitting at home sales for eBay stamps should be strong. Not only are folks sitting at home but larger companies/organizations will have a hard time filling orders (apparently Mystic aside). So I think that eBay sellers have a large opportunity for the next 4-8 weeks.
Don
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Pillar Of The Community
United States
1360 Posts
Posted 03/29/2020   2:32 pm  Show Profile Check cfrphoto's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add cfrphoto to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
It remains difficult to predict the course of the stamp marketplace over the next one to two years. It seems likely that the overall size of the stamp market will shrink. On-line sellers will have an advantage that may not be relinquished when it is safe for seniors to be out and about again. The immediate casualties are stamp shows, stamp clubs and exhibiting. Stronger clubs will recover, but stamp shows may not be able to hold on, especially if remaining shows in 2020 and some in 2021 must be cancelled. While the Philatelic Show 2020 and the St. Louis shows have been rescheduled for July, if they take place as scheduled, how many dealers and collectors will attend? Will the APS cancel the Hartford show in late August? If not, how many dealers and collectors will attend? Will dealers be willing to allow collectors to handle their stamps or covers?

On a brighter note, I am is discussions with the Waltham Stamp Club about hosting a US bank note stamp identification session using Zoom at a future virtual meeting.
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Posted 03/29/2020   2:56 pm  Show Profile Check 51studebaker's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add 51studebaker to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Many folks implored clubs, organizations, and shows to develop online resources over the last decade, no one can say that the opportunity was missed because of 'not knowing'. The push back was significant and included justifications like 'too costly', 'no one cares', and 'wrong demographics'. Over in the Delphi forum I was called names and got snarky comments like 'we do not need iEverything' from some of the whales in philately. A bit hard for me to whip up much sympathy for any fall out now. Just like nature, survival is based upon adaptation.
Don
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United Kingdom
246 Posts
Posted 03/29/2020   3:20 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Noocassel to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
My guess is that stamps will in the longer term press on as before. Some people might return to stamp collecting for a while because they have time on their hands. bored people might buy more on eBay. If they have the money. If things get really bad with the virus people might just end up selling to raise cash, and some collections will come to market because there owners have died. overall though in the long view I think stamp collecting will experience a hiccup. Look at the effect The Second world war had on the collecting side (excluding the philatelic material generated) almost no long lasting effect.
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195 Posts
Posted 03/29/2020   3:52 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add canyoneer to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
For the most part, I'm in that $10 and under eBay item category. I haven't slowed that activity ... the recent drop in retirement savings/investments makes my hobby look like a penny tray at the store checkout. For me, its best to do something that makes one happy at this point and look forward to better days. I will say though that I would give that bucket list Cattle in the Storm a pass this year.
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Posted 03/29/2020   4:26 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
There are two auctions within the next 1.5 weeks that will be ones to watch, the Kelleher and the Siegel Edward Morton sales. They should be somewhat indicative of what people in the higher end market are thinking.
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United States
1993 Posts
Posted 03/29/2020   8:06 pm  Show Profile Check TheArtfulHinger's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add TheArtfulHinger to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
My eBay sales are all cheap items. I've seen sales from US buyers pick up somewhat but international sales have dropped precipitously. As 80% of my sales had been to international buyers, my overall net sales are down quite a bit. The international buyers are presumably under quarantine as well, but I assume they're concerned with shipping delays, or possibly (irrationally) concerned that the virus will hitch a ride with the stamps, being that the US looks to be the current global hotspot for new infections.
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Posted 03/29/2020   8:29 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add John Becker to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
eBay listing numbers: People seem to have more time for making listings. One postcard category I follow has had about 29-30,000 steady listings for the past 2-3 years. In the past week it has risen to 36,000 listings. I have found several nice items.
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29336 Posts
Posted 03/29/2020   8:30 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rod222 to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
concerned with shipping delays,


Australia focus, consider this
Greenback is worth 55c, + shipping
A $50 lot, is going to cost c$150 landed
Hence I have not bought from North America for 8 months.
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Pillar Of The Community
United States
1897 Posts
Posted 03/29/2020   8:42 pm  Show Profile Check Stamps1962's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add Stamps1962 to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I can't speak for everyone but as a seller I can say I'm not planning to put anything out there just now. I have lots of stuff I'd planned to sell this Spring, the complication for me is, I'd have to leave the house to mail things and I cannot do that now; more correctly I could, but fear doing so.

As a buyer I'm passing on offers from outside the US, no idea when I'd get them.

I've no idea when stamp shows are coming back. A bunch of folks sitting a couple feet apart at tables, pawing through boxes of 102 cards isn't something I expect to see again anytime soon.
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Edited by Stamps1962 - 03/29/2020 8:47 pm
Pillar Of The Community
United States
599 Posts
Posted 03/29/2020   8:48 pm  Show Profile Check paperhistory's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add paperhistory to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
It's difficult to control for different material month to month, but I'm having a good March. People are buying postal history, and not just cheap covers.

eBay extended 100,000 (yes, one hundred thousand) free buy-it-now listings to store subscribers for March/April, which may have something to do with increased numbers in some categories.
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United States
895 Posts
Posted 03/29/2020   9:48 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add erilaz to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
During the last two weeks, I've been avoiding more expensive and less "essential" items, as well as eBay sellers outside of the U.S. In spite of that, I've bought some nice additions to my collections, but on average I've been spending less than $20 per week.

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Pillar Of The Community
United States
2186 Posts
Posted 03/29/2020   10:50 pm  Show Profile Check eyeonwall's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add eyeonwall to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
"At times of world uncertainty the precious metal market rises, not the collectibles market."
The stock and oil market drop was so far and so fast that panic selling set in and people with margin calls were forced to sell anything thta was easy to sell and they sold off precious metals, so they are down, not up.

Other than to say they haven't fallen off a cliff or exploded, it is too soon to say what the impact will be as eBay sales are always erratic from week to week.

Sales from the US to the rest of the world is going to be more difficult both due to shipping uncertainty and due to the strong US dollar.
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United States
1229 Posts
Posted 03/29/2020   11:41 pm  Show Profile Check KRelyea's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add KRelyea to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I'm selling the same number of auctions a week as usual. Two weeks ago my average selling price fell from $68/item to $45 and I was worried and thought I might have to cut back in sales for a while. Last week my average popped back up to $72 so I guess it was just an aberration. I have quite a few good customers from Australia and I did notice they have not been bidding much recently, other than that I haven't noticed any changes.
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Valued Member
United States
18 Posts
Posted 03/30/2020   12:02 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Inkmanno1 to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I waited the first real week of SIP to see what things were like on eBay then figured on a couple things that made sense TO ME at least.

Most are home all day. That's going to lead to stamp collectors browsing eBay, hipstamp, auction firms and SAN. Hate for it to sound this way but the bottom feeders will always be there looking for the steal they almost never find.

Many of my buyers are on the older side and no matter what the market did and will do % wise up or down, I don't believe that will stop the people with paid off homes, retired, pensioners who have decent retirement portfolios from spending a few hundred here and there or more on their hobby since at this moment, they can't do much of anything else.

So I listed a bunch last week that ended today and the following days. So far, so good. Sales were good and prices were up there. US material fwiw sold to US only.

2 cents.
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