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When Speculating In Stamps, Timing Is Everything

 
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Posted 01/03/2021   12:58 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this topic Add steevh to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
I just found this old clipping







4d in old money is about 1.5p in current money -- 10/- would be worth 50p.

Not long ago I was at an auction where 10,000 of these world cup stamps were sold for next to nothing -- certainly less than the face value of 1.5p each.

Had the owner sold them in 1966, at the height of the bubble, he could have made 5,000 and bought a house worth much more 20 times that now.
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Posted 01/03/2021   1:40 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add floortrader to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
STEEVH ----Cornering the stamp market has been going on for 150 years . In the past 60 years I have seen many dozens of attempts and some with very successful to the original players to over inflate the prices .

I always enjoy the group who argue and post that things are different this time and it is the real deal and the price will continue to climb and once the "smart people " get in the prices will take off .

About timing ----That is "the BURNING MATCH "theory ,that you can get out and a bigger fool will buy it from you and your smarter to get out . SORRY that is a game for professionals with many many years of experience .
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Posted 01/03/2021   1:43 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add mootermutt987 to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
The BPO said they were 'only' printing 12 million of the overprinted stamp. This type of special commemorative issue, though, was likely to have only been bought by people interested in saving it though. Sure, a few got used and people made up commemorative covers, etc, but the lion's share were bound to be saved as mint stamps. When this happens, there are all kinds of speculators (read: suckers) who think the hype (of the issue, not of the commemorated event) will turn into long-term value. It was destined to be a bubble, and the bubble burst fairly early in the lifecycle of this collectible. The only way to make real money on this was to buy a bunch, and sell immediately, before the hype dies. Unfortunately, many didn't do that.

ETA: 12 million, where 90-ish% end up in the philatelic world does NOT make for a rarity. 10 million of anything dumped on the philatelic market constitutes a glut, if anything.

ETA #2: I am sure I exaggerated the degree to which these ended up in stamp collections. I am sure many were bought by the general public, with the intent to use on their mail and celebrate the event. Still, philately got more than their share of these, and the 'glut' statement still holds, just to a lesser degree. There is no shortage of these stamps available to collectors.
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Edited by mootermutt987 - 01/03/2021 1:49 pm
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Posted 01/03/2021   1:52 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add GeoffHa to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I remember missing it, and being unable to get one the following day. I also remember our headmaster, "Nobby" Hall, smugly telling us he'd bought a whole sheet, and our gasping. Now, they're ten-a-penny, of course.
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Posted 01/04/2021   03:26 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add DrewM to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
As a former history teacher, I can confirm that this same thing has been going on for centuries. The famous tulip bulb mania in the Netherlands centuries ago saw the value of individual bulbs rise spectacularly for a while -- until the prices eventually collapsed. Apparently, people saw the bulbs as "limited editions" and therefore destined for great value. From a distance this sort of thing always seems crazy, but in the middle of the frenzy it does seem like you might make a killing. The stock market sometimes operates this same way even today. One reason I make no effort at making a profit with my collection. When I or my heirs sell it, it will be worth what it will be worth. To me, it's just fun and no more than that.
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Posted 01/04/2021   08:19 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
To give some perspective most regular Soviet stamps pre-1960's had a print quantity of 1 million or less. The marketing ploy of implied rarity and demand is a powerful one though and Mystic still uses it in their advertising campaigns presumably to good affect.
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Posted 01/04/2021   11:12 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add JLLebbert to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Reminds me a bit of U.S. Scott 1623B, the perf 10 booklet pane of seven 13-cent stamps accompanied by one 9-cent stamp. I only became aware of these several months after their issuance in 1977 and could not locate them via the local P.O. So, much to my dismay, I bought 2 of the $1 panes for the exorbitant price of $2 apiece through an add in a stamp magazine. Much to my consternation, a few months later I saw them being offered in the same magazine for as much as $125 per pane. Why, I asked myself, had I not purchased more!
Of course, eventually the smoke cleared and the panes settled into the $10 range. I think the latest Scott catalogue lists it at $15.
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Posted 03/02/2021   2:14 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Pickastory to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Great topic
A forever problem between a 'market maker' and a 'market breaker'
I watched the old timers (im at that age now) buy certain materials in a way to 'corner' a market in the future.
Selling into the future would be two parts;
Offering material at a set rate over a given amount of time?
Offering material at all at once, large lots, several auction venues, etc...?
I do have several items that were complete buyouts of only known source and since the internet, so far has been very surprising as to the 'return'
Both scenario's require patience and effort.
One project to show the numbers; a label with 3 different printings, 3,000 1st, 5,000 2nd, and 12,000 3rd.
Problem; really have only 3,000 sets for sale, if dumped on market the singles, then sets would be useless?
Have seen this occur in other venues.

Buy the way, didnt Bunky Hunt and bro try this approach in some fashion?


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