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Method To Liquidate A 50's Thru Current Plate Block Collection

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Posted 03/06/2021   08:25 am  Show Profile Check eyeonwall's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add eyeonwall to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I am interested in some of your plate blocks for more than the dealer suggested, but you have set your settings to not allow email and the rules do not allow me to post an offer here.
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Posted 03/06/2021   08:43 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add gmot to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
That's an interesting analysis Don, hadn't seen it before.

My grandfather wrote the prices he paid (on the hinge) for many of the stamps/sets in his collection when he put it together in the late 1940s/early 1950s. I haven't done an analysis, but checked many of those against current market value, and it is fascinating how most are comparatively cheaper now - in some cases, much cheaper - in relative terms than 70 years ago.

~Greg
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Posted 03/06/2021   11:19 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add wkusau to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Eyeonwall,


Quote:
I am interested in some of your plate blocks for more than the dealer suggested, but you have set your settings to not allow email and the rules do not allow me to post an offer here.


The OP needs 50 posts before he can use the mail system per forum rules.
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Posted 03/06/2021   11:08 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Pickastory to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Good topic;

Always noticed that events would have a great impact on consumption, or in some cases , rejection of a particular item or series.
Without a doubt the politics at the time would also have a profound effect on the same conditions of acceptance or, rejection.
Summation; seems to indicate that a popular item was heavily 'kept' and in great supply now, and a 'rejected' item is plentiful also due to lack of interest at time of issue?
Conclusion; no indication of value?
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Posted 03/07/2021   1:18 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add mootermutt987 to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Don, that is a very interesting presentation you did with the Zeppelins - SCV vs inflation. I entered the hobby as a kid in the 1970's, and entered the business for a few years in the late 1980's. I saw Zepp prices spike in the $1000's and have watched them 'settle' in the decades since. The set was the 'favorite son' of people touting stamps as investments. They were an integral part of the 'portfolio' dealer. If you were a wealthy businessman, looking for a 'new' place to put your money, and had ZERO interest or knowledge of philately, you definitely heard people touting stamps and Zepps as that new, great, place to put your $$$. Coins, baseball cards, and comic books went through that too --- probably collectibles, in general. As with so many pitches, the 1970's/1980's pitch for buying Zepps as an investment included a statement about how much the values have swollen over the last few decades - which got more people to buy. For those dealers, it was a boom time. Then the bubble (inevitably, frankly) burst and we see the decades-long downward slope in your presentation. This should be a warning to everybody. The hobby needs slow, steady, growth with a slow, steady, infusion of new collectors (and their money, frankly) to be healthy. I have never owned a full set of Zepps in my collection. Although the spike/bust is decades old, I just don't see them as a good investment - my mind has formed its opinion based on the decades of down-values, although it appears to have leveled out, generally, at this point. Although I have never seen the in-depth #'s that you have posted in your presentation, I was certainly aware of the general activity of the graphs. Maybe now is the time...

Back in the 1980's, there WERE several modern PB's that were worth significantly more than face value - 1-1/4c Gallatin (1279) and many of the early se-tenant issues of the 1960's (1331-32, 1365-68, 1376-79, etc). These, to a lesser extent, followed the 'spike' in Don's presentation. They currently have little premium value. I don't think it is any longer worth it to cull these from a PB collection and sell them separately as a 'premium' lot. It is, frankly, too bad. It was always nice to have some PB's sprinkled around from the 1940's to the current day that had premium value. It gave me, as a collector, a feeling that I could go to the PO, buy PB's, and reasonably hope to have a few that make the whole venture 'worth it'. I now believe my post WWII PB collection is a huge money-loser. I do it now for the enjoyment of the process - it costs money to have fun.
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Posted 03/07/2021   1:45 pm  Show Profile Check 51studebaker's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add 51studebaker to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Note the uptick in inflation in the 1980s


If you recall, many folks started moving money into 'collectibles' at that time. I think that this also helped push stamp values higher for that period.
Don
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Posted 03/07/2021   2:19 pm  Show Profile Check eyeonwall's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add eyeonwall to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Wsn't there a time (a few years?) in the late 70's or early where you were allowed to have stamps in your 401k? That sucked a lot of money into the hobby that caused the prices to spike.

Speaking of investment portfolios, I am still seeing massively overpriced (even by the price spike period) "investment portfolios" put together from really shady firms that include a lot of poor quality stamps and a lot of marketing hype. Truly sad how these people were taken, but you are at risk of that when you invest in something you are clueless about.
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Posted 03/07/2021   3:30 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add mootermutt987 to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
You get the stock/bond crowd getting bored with making 10% ROI, and start quoting the values of stamps from 1960's to 1980's (just look at Don's graphs between those decades and you cannot deny that the values were going up, up, up. You could see this 'marketing' 'tactic' into the 1990's, but only quoting performance up to the top of the spike. There were still enough uninformed idiots that it worked --- people investing in stamps in the 1990's based on #'s up to the 1980's. There are certain people that like 'flash' and presentation, and a faulty USA #1, 122, 834, C13-15 all dressed up in a nice folio, mounted in a sealed frame, got a lot of attention from people bored with the same old, same old (stocks/bonds). Many treated stamps as commodities, without understanding the reality of condition. If you sell a (nicely sealed up and presented in a folio/frame) faulty #1 or C13-15, etc, with a cheap but interesting write-up of the subject (Read: copy and paste from Wikipedia), you are going to make a butt-load of $$$, and there are going to be many investors that are only going to find out years later that they were taken for a ride. So many of these 'investor lots' that we see for sale at auction have many of the same issues, but many with faults. If they invested in the 1980's, and are just now trying to cash-in on their investment, they are LITERALLY going to make pennies on their dollar. The problem? Stocks and bonds don't get thinned or tears that reduce their value. Buy a share of XYZ Co., and it is worth exactly the same as every other of the same type of share of XYZ Co. People that think they can invest in the same way with stamps/collectibles are simply ignorant. The high ROI for this type of material is realized by the dealer, not the investor.

Moral of the story? Stick with what you know.
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Posted 03/07/2021   3:42 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
And sometimes luck just smiles upon you like finding a wallet full of bitcoin from nine years ago that was purchased for $5 per.
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Posted 03/07/2021   4:03 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add GMC89 to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Hey Mooter, no offense but in my opinion;
I guarantee you that the bond/stock crowd do not confuse investing with playing. Bond investors / conservative look to retain capital. Stock investors look to grow capital. All beyond inflation.
Stamps are fun money. BillGross(The Bond King) knows the difference, so do I.
This is a fun time. Not AN INVESTMENT. Having said all that there are idiots out there who think I can do better. That's who you are speaking to.
I want to thank Don and Bobby and all the others. In thetime of Covid this is also fun!
Cheers
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Posted 03/07/2021   6:42 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add mootermutt987 to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
GMC89 - no offense taken. Absolutely, most people with money to invest are not idiots. Especially the big rollers. I was talking about the guy who has a little extra $$$, already has $$$ in stocks/bonds, and wants something else to invest in. The guy that wanted a different investment. The guy that read Money Magazine and heard about stamps as an investment. I was talking about the guy that wanted a place to sink his money without learning the pitfalls (or get the skills to spot them) of that venture before entering it. I was not talking about the smart/wise investor - most likely because he enters a new field in a different way, altogether. I was NOT talking about the guy that wants to enter philately and learn about the hobby. I was definitely not talking about William Gross - he was in it for the love of the hobby. He was a stamp scholar. I am not sure, but I suspect he made money, overall, with his collections. I doubt that was his intent from the start, anyway.

Nowadays, I think most people in the hobby are in it for the love of the hobby. The spike in stamp values happened so long ago that it is no longer a compelling tool to suck people into the hobby as investors. During the upslope of that spike, though, some people entered the hobby purely to make money. People with more dollars than sense. And they got burned. As an ex-dealer, I have spoken to those people, and their heirs, and evaluated their portfolios. Many got pennies on their dollar, for something that they truly considered their special investment. If only they had entered the hobby as most of us - learned how to tell a faulty stamp, knew the history of values, spent little $$$ until there was an adequate knowledge base.

I agree with what you said GMC89 - savvy people act with savvy. People in the stock/bond/investment BUSINESS are not going to get into investing in stamps without plenty of scrutiny. Dare I say, that means they will most likely not get into stamps as investments. Plenty will get into the hobby, though. This is a great hobby, and is a great outlet for the 'collector' type of person.
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Edited by mootermutt987 - 03/07/2021 6:52 pm
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Posted 03/07/2021   7:40 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add GMC89 to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Mooter I respect your posts. I have read them with great respect.
No offense intended nor taken.
As an investor and hobbyist I know the difference and respect for those differences.
"Never turn a trade into a investment" rule one. And the corollary.
Regards Mark
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Posted 03/07/2021   8:01 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Andyrich74 to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I'm going to start buying up used US 300s. They are pushing 120 years old, so must be worth something. Hopefully I can corner the market in a month or two. Sound investment strategy if I've ever heard one.

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