Stamp Community Family of Web Sites
Thousands of stamps, consistently graded, competitively priced and hundreds of in-depth blog posts to read
Stamp Community Forum
 
Username:
Password:
Save Password
Forgot your Password?

Welcome Guest! Need help? Got a question? Inherit some stamps?
Our stamp forum is completely free! Register Now!

What Is Happening With The Price Of Modern (After 2016) US Stamps?

 
To participate in the forum you must log in or register.
Author Previous TopicReplies: 14 / Views: 695Next Topic  
Valued Member

United States
35 Posts
Posted 04/27/2021   7:10 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this topic Add gwanghoops to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
Just decided to start collecting US modern again because I found some good lots and now I'm wondering what is going on with recent pricing online for very recent US modern after, say, 2016. I don't remember ever seeing this before.

For example, the 5348 2019 $25.50 Express Mail "Bethesda Fountain" MNH single went from $50 3 months ago to >$125 sold now.

There's many example of booklets and sheets going for 2-3X FV. Nothing sells for less than FV except for those Chinese-made stamps at 80%.

Maybe it's not a good time to be doing very recent US stuff.
If it's not near FV, I'm not buying.

Thoughts on why, is this typical, and what US modern 2016+ collectors should be doing now?
Send note to Staff

Pillar Of The Community
Learn More...
6254 Posts
Posted 04/27/2021   7:18 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Thoughts on why, is this typical, and what US modern 2016+ collectors should be doing now?


Selling
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Valued Member
324 Posts
Posted 04/27/2021   7:31 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Torin to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Ever since the pandemic emerged in March 2020, prices for modern stamps, are selling for close to FV or even higher than FV. I think it's due to in person stamp shows being cancelled, a re-surgence of interest in the hobby during "shelter in place" rules, and more recently, government stimulus money.
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Valued Member
United States
35 Posts
Posted 04/27/2021   8:08 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add gwanghoops to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Maybe it's the 2021 stimulus money not used for essentials.
Been seeing jumps in pricing the last 2-3 months versus the pandemic duration.

I guess it's time to sell if you have them and to collect wisely.

My brother is selling off packs of booklets purchased from Costco for 3x FV.
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Valued Member
324 Posts
Posted 04/27/2021   8:30 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Torin to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
gwanghoops: The first sentence of your last post, in my opinion, explains much of the high prices lately.
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Valued Member
148 Posts
Posted 04/29/2021   10:47 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Perf10 to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Agree covid's stay-at-home caused people to reopen their stamp collections. In the recent Someone's Stamp Investment thread, we discussed the oversupply of material. Self-adhesives might be like what was said about clad coins a few years after they replaced silver coinage, "Nobody is saving this junk."

Will the sudden demand for relatively recent stamps endure after the stay-at-home thing fades? Maybe a little. Nicely preserved self-adhesives might end up being where demand outstrips supply in the decades ahead.
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Valued Member
United States
187 Posts
Posted 04/29/2021   2:26 pm  Show Profile Check stampCat7's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add stampCat7 to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I remember the high inflation of the late '70s and how it pushed all kinds of collectables higher. With the amount of money the fed is printing and politicians willing to spend - get ready for a comparable period of inflation. I love watching movies from the '70s and viewing the supermarket items for 5-10 times less than now. Back in the 50's as kids we never passed a phone booth without checking the coin return. returning bottles for 5c and going to the Saturday matinee movies for .35 cents. In 1960 the cost of a Nathan's hot dog, and fries was 35 cents.
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Edited by stampCat7 - 04/29/2021 5:43 pm
Pillar Of The Community
993 Posts
Posted 04/29/2021   10:04 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add DrewM to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I don't buy it. Are we going to blame all rising prices on "stimulus money" from now on? How is the relatively small amount of money people rec'd from the government the main cause of the price of stamps going up? Economic changes don't work that way. One change out of all the other changes is rarely the cause of anything. Many factors, some major, others minor, play a role, and they all have to be considered. MIght as well blame rising home prices on "stimulus money". Gas prices have gone up. Stimulus money? College tuition keeps going up. Must be caused by stimulus money. Car prices keep going up. Stimulus money. I've gained some weight. What do you think -- caused by stimulus money?

As Perf10 noted, people staying home far more than usual turned them back toward collecting stamps, so they bought more stamps. Seems perfectly reasonable to me. Stamp shows stopped, so online buying of stamps seems to have grown. Seems logical. These high-priced new issues for Express Mail have always commanded a premium from sellers after they stopped being sold by the USPS. Now that premium is higher. More likely the cause of this one small thing is a combination of things including including some we haven't thought of.

But blaming it solely -- or mainly -- on stimulus money? Seems pretty shaky to me. In fact, it sounds like a thinly-veiled political claim to me along the lines of government spending is bad. Might as well claim that stimulus money makes people lazy and tears down the moral fabric of society. Those checks were pretty small compared to people's normal income, so why not blame people's normal income for inflation? Stimulus money was designed to see people through the economic crisis caused by the pandemic, to help pay the rent, the phone bill, the electricity and gas, and buy groceries which I imagine is what they were often used for -- unless someone can prove otherwise. How does paying the rent and buying groceries drive up the prices of aftermarket stamps already selling at high prices? Sorry, but this claims seems like a real stretch, especially with no economic evidence to back it up.

Here's what likely happened. With the pandemic keeping people at home and away from stamp shows, existing active collectors turned to other sources to buy stamps, buying far more online than before. Some dormant collectors who were also stuck at home, renewed their interest in stamps and also begin to buy online since no stamp shows or other sources of stamps existed. And perhaps some non-collectors also stuck at home also took up hobbies like stamp collecting. In a computer age, where do people look first to buy things? Online. These collectors, especially the new and returning collectors, realized they were missing many recently-issued stamps, especially higher denomination stamps collectors often neglect to buy at the post office, thinking they'll buy them later when they have more money. This happens repeatedly going all the way back to the Columbians in the 1890s. In most stamp collections it's mostly high-value stamps that are the empty spaces. This recent spike in online stamp buying caused prices to increase, especially prices of the highest-denominated stamps because, after those stamps were taken off sale, many collectors with their newly-found free time wanted to fill empty spaces they'd neglected to fill earlier -- which were often the higher denomination stamps. That drove those prices up.
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Edited by DrewM - 04/29/2021 10:38 pm
Pillar Of The Community
Learn More...
522 Posts
Posted 04/29/2021   10:26 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rismoney to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
The rule is simple: Buy when others are all selling, and sell when others are buying.

AKA buy low, sell high.

On a side note - I think from a collectors perspective if you know stamps aren't getting widespread "reach" even if massively printed, they may move towards scarcer levels in even a few short years.
I can't get over The aloha shirts booklet of 10 32c stamps being super pricy and it's less than 10 years old. Like from $3 to $100! Circulation in recent times will factor in a lot as people stopped buying stamps. I feel as though it's a great time to collect particularly if you understand why some stamps will never go up.





Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Pillar Of The Community
993 Posts
Posted 04/29/2021   10:46 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add DrewM to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Especially colorful stamps on certain topics tend to increase in value. Often, a mailer looks to buy huge numbers of a special commemorative stamp issued some time earlier because that particular stamp (or set of stamps) compliments their mailing. I'm not sure if that was the case with the Hawaiian shirts. So they go into the market to buy a few millon copies of a stamp that's currently selling commonly for very little -- which drives its price up enormously pretty quickly. The problem is guessing which stamps those are going to be. Hawaiian shirts? I wouldn't have guessed that. In fact, I think it's virtually impossible to guess which ones will go up since these sudden spikes in sales of older stamps are driven by decision no one can know will be made -- by some advertising company or some other entity that decides to buy up a lot of a particular stamp. Stamps are worth more if they exist in limited numbers which we can know about, or if they are in great demand which we can't predict very well, if at all.
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Pillar Of The Community
United States
7440 Posts
Posted 04/29/2021   10:52 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add revcollector to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
It might be wise to remember that 35 cents in 1960 was real money.
If you want to compare the value of a $0.35 Commodity in 1960 there are four choices. In 2019 the relative:
real price of that commodity is $3.02
real value in consumption of that commodity is $3.94
labor value of that commodity is $3.96 (using the unskilled wage) or $4.46 (using production worker compensation)
income value of that commodity is $7.61
economic share of that commodity is $13.80
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Pillar Of The Community
United States
2601 Posts
Posted 04/29/2021   11:00 pm  Show Profile Check eyeonwall's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add eyeonwall to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
First of all, who is blaming stamp prices rising solely on stimulus money? Of course there are other factors. Secondly, collectors tend to be old, and many of them are retired, thus had no job to lose, thus did not need the govt money to pay the rent and did have it available to spend on stamps. Yes a few thousand dollars is a small part of an annual total budget, but it would add significantly to most collectors stamp budget even if it is chump change to you.
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Pillar Of The Community
Learn More...
6254 Posts
Posted 04/30/2021   12:18 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
The trillions of dollars of fiat money printed will cause inflation. Yes, it is a complex topic however. Lumber prices have now put home ownership out of the reach of 5.5 million people. COVID can be thanked for that in large part. The new policies on fossil fuels are having an impact on fuel prices. Expect them to keep rising. Fuel prices impact EVERYTHING. Electricity costs more. Politics wants to drive people to EV's. Government over regulation is back on again, drilling is being restricted, areas are again off limits. Consumer demand has shifted from some areas to other areas. Chip shortages are severely impacting the auto industry. There is a lot going on. Costs are not all about stimulus cash but stimulus cash is going to spike inflationary pressures.

Six trillion dollars in one year and no end in site. Another 6 trillion of printing proposed. Unsustainable if you understand basic economics. The individual stimulus checks are a diversion. The real number is the cumulative trillions of dollars now on the balance sheet with no way of paying for it. None.

And let us not lose site of the fact that stimulus checks went to tens of millions of people that never had their situation change because of COVID. Why?

You cannot live that way financially in your lives and the government is not much different with the exception that they make you and I responsible for their drunken binges. That is a bipartisan statement.
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Edited by rogdcam - 04/30/2021 12:22 am
Valued Member
75 Posts
Posted 05/01/2021   7:13 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add STTScott to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
@stampCat7 said >> inflation. I love watching movies from the '70s and viewing the supermarket items for 5-10 times less than now. Back in the 50's as kids we never passed a phone booth without checking the coin return. returning bottles for 5c and going to the Saturday matinee movies for .35 cents. In 1960 the cost of a Nathan's hot dog, and fries was 35 cents. <<

But when you consider what people were being paid in those "old" days, those prices weren't all that low. When you were making a pittance an hour in 1960, that $.35 at Nathan's wasn't all that cheap. Same with the cost of gasoline and the cost of a basic house.

Still, I grew up in the pay phone-pop bottle era, which is why I never pass a Coinstar machine these days without checking the reject hole :)

Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Valued Member
75 Posts
Posted 05/01/2021   7:23 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add STTScott to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
@DrewM said >> As Perf10 noted, people staying home far more than usual turned them back toward collecting stamps, so they bought more stamps. Seems perfectly reasonable to me. <<

That shelter in place business is how I ended up taking up this hobby. It originally started with my coin collection, and since I've basically collected all the coins I've really ever wanted to, indulging my childhood admiration for stamps became my new-found rabbit hole. The stimulus had zero to do with it -- having a job that pays enough to have a disposable income to fund the rabbit hole did. Y'know, just like the olden days :)
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Edited by STTScott - 05/01/2021 7:28 pm
  Previous TopicReplies: 14 / Views: 695Next Topic  
 
To participate in the forum you must log in or register.


Go to Top of Page
Disclaimer: While a tremendous amount of effort goes into ensuring the accuracy of the information contained in this site, Stamp Community assumes no liability for errors. Copyright 2005 - 2021 Stamp Community Family - All rights reserved worldwide. Use of any images or content on this website without prior written permission of Stamp Community or the original lender is strictly prohibited.
Privacy Policy / Terms of Use    Advertise Here
Stamp Community Forum © 2007 - 2021 Stamp Community Forums
It took 0.2 seconds to lick this stamp. Powered By: Snitz Forums 2000 Version 3.4.05