What Is Happening With The Price Of Modern (After 2016) US Stamps?

Higher prices are common for a full service dealer. For example, I went to a show a while back and there was a dealer selling modern mint sheets at face if you were willing look to through stacks of sheets. If you went to any dealer and asked for the same sheet, you would likely pay 2x face for it. This just happens to match Scott pricing (not sure if coincidence or not).

I have finished my modern US collection and I owe it all to Mr. Bardo.
He is one of the easiest people to work with.

I get what people are saying about the pandemic leading to more people getting into or getting back to stamp collecting, and of course that would cause price increases from the demand. Is that demand focused on the most modern stamps because it's mostly from people like me returning to collecting, so we already have older stamps?

I've been looking at US yearbooks as my collection ends at 2000. I purchased '96 through '99 within the last year, and got all of them on e-bay for less than their original price back in the '90s, and that was after paying for shipping. The mid 20th century mint sets are still really cheap too. But if you look at the 2000s sets, that soon changes and by somewhere around 2008-2010, it's changed a lot. The prices jump, and there's far less availability. When I checked yesterday, a couple years in the 2010s weren't currently being sold at all on e-bay unless my searching missed them.

Also, maybe it's partly because the USPS is printing far fewer stamps? I haven't dug through the circulation numbers to check on that yet, but it would make sense given how much less stamped mail is sent now. Then some demand pressure hitting fewer copies available would cause the price spike.

On a related note, has the USPS ever released the number of yearbooks printed each year? I mean, other than the very limited 2020 book...
I've not found that anywhere yet.

In an unsigned review of the 2023 US Scott Specialized Catalog in the current Nov-Dec 2022 issue of the (New York) Collectors Club Philatelist, the author contends that fewer buyers have been acquiring and holding sheets and panes of recent issues, decreasing supply. The catalog has some eye-opening valuations for selected panes.

Fewer buyers holding sheets and panes decreases supply? Supply in the marketplace?

My cut-off point was 2005. But I still save panes of stamps that are of topical interest. This year it was the Charles M. Schulz / Peanuts stamps.

Odd. Seems to me that if there was an attractive profit margin on reselling full sheets, we'd be seeing more folks going to the local PO when sheets come out and holding onto them for months to years before selling. Has that practice tapered off somehow? Or is there a softening on the demand side, i.e. fewer collectors looking for them?

You can just buy them from the USPS website. People are overthinking it. Its not lucrative because anyone who wants it gets it that way online. The local PO doesn't have squat in terms of sheet variety. If you missed out, there isn't a great incentive to fill modern holes since you can just move on, instead of paying a dealer 2X for Forevers. Or you can buy a modern collection lot and eliminate singleton deals.

One thing I haven't seen is Star Wars Droid press sheets. Not sure how these disappeared.

I have actually been surprised at the market. I just went looking for the Transcontinental Railroad stamps to use for postage and am not going to pay more than face. The USPS website has none, and a search online shows plenty of sheets available at about twice face. Bardo is asking $22.50/pane of 18. 50.4 million were printed which while a small quantity compared to the old days of commemoratives is still a lot of stamps. So where did they go?

" If you missed out, there isn't a great incentive to fill modern holes since you can just move on"

And how is this different than 50 years ago?

I don't think there was an availability concern for post 1940 stamps 50 years ago. So you didnt have to move on. At Gimbels, Macys or a local dealer they were everywhere. People just bought them. Thats why every album you see has these pages conplete. I even remember buying 1950-1980 sets for not much over face. Even paying 6 or 10 cents vs 3 cents per stamp was really neglible and just done as a kid.

But today paying $200 for $100 in face for a single year is a bit different albeit not percentage wise.

I dont understand the production quantity numbers. Either there are hoards out there that made it into peoples hands or they got burned.
Thats the question. Outside of a bunch of dealer stocks, its anyones guess what the community at large has. Clearly anyone with a supply to sell is pricing them based on demand.

You have to wonder if there are low thousands of things remaining despite millions issued. Maybe there is a modern rarity situation brewing due to only a handful of people accumulating due to acquisition and storage cost.

"I dont understand the production quantity numbers. Either there are hoards out there that made it into peoples hands or they got burned."

Are you talking about recent issues or older ones? I'm not quite sure what you are trying to say. By burned, do you mean destroyed or used?

The real value of anything is the price at which a willing seller will part with it to a willing buyer. This is directly related to the available supply of an item on the market compared to the number of folks wanting to buy it. Catalog value may or may not, and probably does not, reflect the current market value.

[quote][I have actually been surprised at the market. I just went looking for the Transcontinental Railroad stamps to use for postage and am not going to pay more than face. The USPS website has none, and a search online shows plenty of sheets available at about twice face. Bardo is asking $22.50/pane of 18. 50.4 million were printed which while a small quantity compared to the old days of commemoratives is still a lot of stamps. So where did they go?quote]

I don't know where they went, but if they are double their issue price right now, only three years later, I think that's pretty good for those who put a bunch of these sheets away, wouldn't you say? I just got into collecting U.S. stamps two weeks ago, and I never knew these particular stamps existed. I think it is a very attractive pane of stamps, especially with the center stamps on the pane being much smaller. I guess I'll have to pick up a couple panes when I can find them on the low end of the range. Who knows, these things could continue to rise. I figure there's nothing to lose, with the way first class rates are rising, it will only be a few years and you'll be paying $20 for 18 stamps anyway.

Excellent point!