Stamp Community Family of Web Sites
Thousands of stamps, consistently graded, competitively priced and hundreds of in-depth blog posts to read
Stamp Community Forum
 
Username:
Password:
Save Password
Forgot your Password?

Welcome Guest! Need help? Got a question? Inherit some stamps?
Our stamp forum is completely free! Register Now!

The Thing About Moderns?

Next Page    
 
To participate in the forum you must log in or register.
Author Previous TopicReplies: 31 / Views: 1,397Next Topic
Page: of 3
Valued Member

89 Posts
Posted 05/23/2021   12:11 am  Show Profile Bookmark this topic Add STTScott to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
***Original Post Added by Mod for clarity***

Quote:
Personally, my interests mainly have been in the 1900-40s issues. But I've also come across for really cheap incedibly well centered 4-blocks from 1950s-60, which upon first glance have no value or interest, which is probably why these blocks and sheets are selling for so little. Until maybe you get to incredibly well-centered OG/NH specimens that could ring in at 95-100 and come in at serious CV numbers at 95-100.

So -- my question is, given that, why do Moderns thru 1960 get such short shrift right off?


Personally, my interests mainly have been in the 1900-40s issues. But I've also come across for really cheap incedibly well centered 4-blocks from 1950s-60, which upon first glance have no value or interest, which is probably why these blocks and sheets are selling for so little. Until maybe you get to incredibly well-centered OG/NH specimens that could ring in at 98-100 and come in at serious SMQ numbers at 98-100.

So -- my question is, given that, why do Moderns thru 1960 get such short shrift right off?
Send note to Staff
Edited by STTScott - 05/23/2021 09:58 am

Pillar Of The Community
Learn More...
6799 Posts
Posted 05/23/2021   12:13 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
They were printed by the hundreds of millions to billions?
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Valued Member
United States
76 Posts
Posted 05/23/2021   12:30 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Stamp Hunting to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
There are many reasons why classics are desired more then modern. One of the biggest being that inconsistencies in printing techniques, dye coloring, quality of plates to print with. They gave us errors and a myriad number of differences to entice collectors.

With the modern issues, a lot of those inconsistencies were lost. Printing techniques got better and coloring more consistent.

Investment Collectors truly love the one of a kind thing. Where a more general collector loves the collecting itself, and the item. They collect because it has bears on it. That sort of thing.

I got hooked mainly because I couldn't believe someone sat there and scratched a piece of metal and made it to where it made a picture when ink was applied and pressed on a sheet of paper. Who knew. I was 5, don't judge. LOL
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Valued Member
89 Posts
Posted 05/23/2021   12:32 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add STTScott to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Rodcam said >> They were printed by the hundreds of millions to billions?lt;<

Um, rarity isn't it all. OK, let's say a stamp's issue was 13 million. Of those 13 million, how many of those -- from a collector's standpoint -- were perfectly centered on their sheets at the Mint? Quite few, relatively speaking ... let's say a few hundred thousand. And of those few hundred thousand sent to a few thousand post offices and bought by ordinary people who just needed stamps, how many of those perfect specimens do you suppose aurvived.

Exactly. Which is why we have a hobbly these days.
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Valued Member
89 Posts
Posted 05/23/2021   12:47 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add STTScott to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
@StampHunting: I 100% agree that the Claassics deseece their status. But I've read enough posts intimating that Moderns are, well, not worth the time of day. Heck,even seen the debate over today-Moderns, and the CVs of "worthless" 1950s-60s Moderns at 95-100 grade .. well, I dunno.

Personally, I think it's a neglected area.
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Edited by STTScott - 05/23/2021 12:48 am
Pillar Of The Community
United Kingdom
5833 Posts
Posted 05/23/2021   02:16 am  Show Profile Check GeoffHa's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add GeoffHa to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
It sounds as if you're asking not whether people collect post-war stamps, which they obviously do, but whether they underrate the potential financial value of well-centred copies. Centring, and especially the accompanying grading, is of particular concern to US stamp collectors, but doesn't, as a rough generalisation, animate the rest of us in the same way. That someone in California can make a good living out of grading common stamps, putting them in a plastic holder and creating an "SMQ number" doesn't interest me in the slightest, except as an occasional observer of human folly.
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Moderator
Learn More...
9757 Posts
Posted 05/23/2021   03:20 am  Show Profile Check 51studebaker's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add 51studebaker to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
After the advent of the electric eye technology in the late 1930s, the perforating of stamps became much more accurate and well centered stamps became more common. In my opinion collectors simply adjusted their 'centering expectations' for these issues. The 'SMQ' hype (my opinion) loses a lot of of luster after the electric eye introduction because it becomes LESS common to have poorly centered stamps then it does to have well centered stamps (the opposite of pre 1938 stamps).

I say 'hype' because of what I see in the marketplace and analyzing the grading data. There are numerous examples of people who are looking through dealer stacks of cheap full sheets of stamps seeking the best centered sheets. They send in single stamp examples for grading and if the sample comes back with a high grade they then send in the rest of the sheet as single stamps. They then list the stamps one at a time on eBay as uncommonly high grade even when they are sitting on 99 more to follow. Currently there are not that many people doing this but as practice becomes more common (and it probably will since it currently is an easy way to make money) then the price of 'highly graded' post electric eye stamps stamps will plummet. Even as isolated examples you can see the prices drop; the first few listings go off at high prices until the marketplace realizes that the seller keeps listing the balance of the sheet.

How do the first 10-20 buyers feel when they see the prices realized plummet over a year or two? (Probably the same way folks who purchased FDC covers from mass producers back in the 1960s and 1970s.)

In my opinion this is not good for the hobby in the long term, hobbyists need to understand that well centered stamps became the norm after 1940 and paying a premium for them can be risky. If the value for them rises, more and more will be graded and the lower the prices will drop. There is no shortage of well centered post 1940 stamps, there is only a shortage of graded post 1940 stamps.
Don
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Pillar Of The Community
Learn More...
United States
3150 Posts
Posted 05/23/2021   06:42 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add angore to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
The mindset is different for modern material. I do not think the majority of collectors of worry about centering since most are well centered and most dealers do not sell modern material by grade except those trying to milk a few with grading services.










Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Al
Edited by angore - 05/23/2021 06:43 am
Pillar Of The Community
Learn More...
6799 Posts
Posted 05/23/2021   08:50 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
My point about quantities is that I have purchased huge volumes of large lots in my lifetime and oftentimes in a US grouping I would end up with much "face" (modern) postage. I have right now boxes full of the stuff that I could never use in a lifetime. As Don points out, because of advances in manufacturing and technology it is all centered well. Maybe not all perfectly but let's not forget that it is a utilitarian piece of paper to signal service payment, not a Space X rocket component. Not a one of these face stamps was printed in a quantity of 13 million either. Try 130 million or much more. Supply and demand, lack of scarcity and crappy uninspired designs all contribute to a lack of interest.
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Pillar Of The Community
Learn More...
560 Posts
Posted 05/23/2021   09:06 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rismoney to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I have delved into modern collecting exclusively, with a focus on EFOs. My perspective isn't so much the printing process, the historical content of the stamps or the valuation, but rather the sheer level the stamp deviated from the norm. Those attributes matter but come after the "absurdity" factor for me. I also like the idea few to nil people have the stamps I do. So it's modern but not the 1 billion printed as intended stamps.

I do think demand for this has been increasing more dramatically under the radar. It shows up in strange places and not across the board.

I look at lot 1489 at the Siegel sale as proof, that the good ones get their day. I looked at the Bill Lang's sales as a bit of a letdown in that much of what the estate put out there wasn't his best. While some were diamonds, the estate apparently thinks the valuations of this will go up and the greater market doesn't yet agree on pricing. Proof of this is the subset of holdings maintained online.

It's a murky space, because dealer shenanigans remain present with auction price manipulation. I have seen prices go up 4x-5x in less years on some material. Others I have seen crash like the Magic imperf sheet that started at $1000-1500+ when Linn's reported it, and now it can't fetch 500. Maybe too many were discovered. So you have to watch it, to get a feel for modern. But it's a fun area to collect with a spin.
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Valued Member
89 Posts
Posted 05/23/2021   10:57 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add STTScott to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
This has been a great conversation this far, and I appreciate that. However, I might take some disagreement to the statements of centering being quite good on the whole once flat plate was left behind and technology got better, etc. Take a look at the 1950-1960 plate blocks on the E of Bay, and it's not like every sheet came off pristine perf'd.

I collect for the joy of it, but I also collect with an eye to leaving my kids a nice collection they might turn a few bucks on if life goes awry and the rent is due. For instance,I do have a whole 50-sheet of impeccably-centered MNH #983 that I could bust up after getting a great (possibly) Gem grade and eBay in the way @51studebaker described. But I won't, because I'm not in it for the money *for me* (now, if something catastrophic happens, that might change, but still, it's not my prime motivation).

As others have pointed out, Moderns were printed in the billions, so rarity gets taken out of the collectability equation, and maybe that's why postwar Moderns get taken so lightly -- and perhaps rightfully so as opposed to Classics. BUT -- and I guess this is my whole point -- it's like Morgan dollars. There were millions minted in, say, 1904 and there are a crapload of them MS64 condition,which make having one no big whup. But having that same in gem condition is a different story. That's where *population* enters into the picture more than it does when discussing Classics, and why IMO this is a great (and perhaps a defining) subject when it comes to 1950-60 Moderns, Billions printed, yes, but how many of those billions were finely-centered specimens -- especially given that stamps were largely disposable commodities and, unlike Morgan dollars, weren't just set aside by the Everyday Joe even in worn condition? Jillions of gems were just stuck on envelopes every day. How many of them survived? There ya go. (And IMO is why stamp collecting is far more difficult and nerdy and character-building as a hobby than coin collecting :)

Yet, there they are on the E of Bay, for painfully inexpensive and IMO a great start for budding collectors interested in starting off with high-grade specimens with nice 98-100 CV values (or moderate CV at 95) and then branching off into the Classics. And even there, 98+% of those on E of Bay are common, badly centered specimens not worth the time of day if you're collecting on quality as your foundation.

So I guess this has been my point and question all along. 1950-60 Moderns in extremely high grade seem to be worth it (take a look at auctions where high/gem grade "common" stamps with $12 CVs go for a $few hundred), and are worth the effort even tho they generally get short shrift. Plus, in another 30-40 years, those 1950-60 Moderns will naturally be Classics, sonthere's that :)
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Edited by STTScott - 05/23/2021 11:10 am
Moderator
Learn More...
9757 Posts
Posted 05/23/2021   11:10 am  Show Profile Check 51studebaker's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add 51studebaker to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
If you are asking folks who collect these and/or sell these then I think that many will agree with you; and of those who do not collect or sell graded moderns will tend to disagree with you.

So I think it boils down to... out of the total stamp collecting population, what percentage of people collect graded modern stamps?
Don
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Valued Member
89 Posts
Posted 05/23/2021   11:30 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add STTScott to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
@51studebaker said >> So I think it boils down to... out of the total stamp collecting population, what percentage of people collect graded modern stamps? <<

I guess the answer would depend on how many collectors of that era are more interested in selling their stamps, which really, is pretty much the only reason anyone would have a stamp or coin graded. To give buyers a sense of comfort that they're not getting took.

Personally, I collect the best specimens that I can afford (the majority would ring in at 80-90) when it comes to the Classics. If they're already graded, it's a plus, because there's the element of comfort. But I don't think 1950-60 Moderns are any different, given their CVs especially for expertized specimens in 98-100, or in some instances 95.

And personally, I don't like most of those issues. They went to more "photographic" looks, rather than the engraver artistry. A lot of artistry was lost, IMO. But still, the switch afforded us opportunties as collectors.

I dunno. It just seems to me that if you have a graded/expertized 1950-60 stamp at 98-100 with a CV of $200+ that is basically worthless at under 95 that you can pick up in a nice 4- or 6-block for like $3 on the E of Bay in exceptipnal centering, it's worth it even if you don't go the grading route.
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Edited by STTScott - 05/23/2021 11:50 am
Pillar Of The Community
United States
7656 Posts
Posted 05/23/2021   11:34 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Petert4522 to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I collect Transportation Coils almost exclusively. One of my favorite sellers has quite a few coillstrips that are graded, and he has had them listed for ages. They do not seem to sell, I would certainly not buy them.


Peter
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Valued Member
89 Posts
Posted 05/23/2021   11:44 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add STTScott to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
@Peter4522 aaid >> I collect Transportation Coils almost exclusively. One of my favorite sellers has quite a few coillstrips that are graded, and he has had them listed for ages. They do not seem to sell, I would certainly not buy them. <<

And that's the thing, IMO -- the "what you want" thing. Given the choice between an expertized and graded coil strip and one that hasn't been, especially on the E of Bay, I'd feel more comfortable buying the graded one.

But I hear ya about his coil strip being listed forever amd not bought. I think that's a matter of coil strips being somewhat off the norm rather than his graded item being suckage or something.
Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Edited by STTScott - 05/23/2021 11:51 am
Pillar Of The Community
Learn More...
560 Posts
Posted 05/23/2021   12:11 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rismoney to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Dealers probably get certificates discounted based on volume for how much they work with the expertizers. For moderns this probably makes a great arrangement, where they can send large amounts of material to get grading opinions on, and they can create a seemingly endless inventory of graded modern for little cost. Then they can flip these at their leisure over the next decade with pure profit on turning 10c stamps in $100 flips. If they don't sell them, they don't care.

With the amount of sheets of modern out there, the goal is changing narratives to entice buyers into being grading sensitive.

Send note to Staff  Go to Top of Page
Page: of 3 Previous TopicReplies: 31 / Views: 1,397Next Topic  
Next Page
 
To participate in the forum you must log in or register.


Go to Top of Page
Disclaimer: While a tremendous amount of effort goes into ensuring the accuracy of the information contained in this site, Stamp Community assumes no liability for errors. Copyright 2005 - 2021 Stamp Community Family - All rights reserved worldwide. Use of any images or content on this website without prior written permission of Stamp Community or the original lender is strictly prohibited.
Privacy Policy / Terms of Use    Advertise Here
Stamp Community Forum © 2007 - 2021 Stamp Community Forums
It took 0.25 seconds to lick this stamp. Powered By: Snitz Forums 2000 Version 3.4.05