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The Thing About Moderns?

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Posted 05/23/2021   12:30 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
The issue will always be how many "collectors" are there that will drop $1000 on a 100J $1 stamp. My guess is a few based upon Siegel sales and not many more.

The other problem with modern graded is that unlike the classics there is a tremendous pool of stamps sitting out there. The odds favor your 100J pool being diluted by additions to it. The classics have mostly been seen already and traded numerous times. Nobody has a closet box full of mint sheets of classics to pick cherries from.
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Posted 05/23/2021   1:12 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add STTScott to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
@rismoney: OK, so what? Dealers getting breaks on grading and then flips isn't the thing here. If you have *** Edited by Staff - Please Review the rules that you agreed to when you registered. *** about dealers and their ways of doing business, well, that's your thing, but it's not within the realm of myquestion/issue.
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Posted 05/23/2021   1:24 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add STTScott to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
@rodgcam : I disagree n your "tremendous pool of stamps" statement. Yes, a tremendous pool based on basic issue number, but the number of *collectibles* out of that number are quite low.

The CVs for 98-100s (and in some cases 95s) bear that out, methinks. And they're out there on the E of Bay in 4-6 blocks for like $3-5. because they're "worthless" because they're 1950-60s Moderns that have basically been spurned as not Classics.
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Edited by STTScott - 05/23/2021 1:29 pm
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Posted 05/23/2021   1:37 pm  Show Profile Check GeoffHa's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add GeoffHa to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Unless they're specialists, those who collect classics - basically stamps issued before around 1870 or, at a pinch, 1900 - don't spurn middle-period and modern. However, most of us aren't daft enough to pay much for a spurious "collectable" copy of a common, post-WWII issue.
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Posted 05/23/2021   1:56 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add STTScott to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I've been reading thru this thread, and I'm sorta wondering where the graded-stamp thing came in, since my original post had nothing to do with that, other than looking at a stamp for sale and figuring on your own where it might grade at if you sent it off to PSE or somesuch.
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Posted 05/23/2021   2:00 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add hoosierboy to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
As P.T. Barnum famously said, "there is one born every minute" and dealers backed by so called experts in any type of goods know how to manipulate things to their advantage especialy when marketing to the newbies and uneducated masses. True collectors who know better are at a distinct disavantage trying to prevent victims from falling into this trap. Danger, Will Robinson, Danger is my message to anyone looking at philatelic items as investments especially if they think they can turn them for a quick profit.
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Posted 05/23/2021   2:01 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add STTScott to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
@rismoney said >>
With the amount of sheets of modern out there, the goal is changing narratives to entice buyers into being grading sensitive.<<

Yeah, but are they Gem sheets? Nope. Gem sheets -- even 1950-60 Moderns -- have always been hard to come by. Just because a stamp has 1 billion issues, very few of those will be perfection. And that's been my point.
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Posted 05/23/2021   2:08 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rismoney to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Here's the rub. And the math. Maybe fine as a collector, but don't expect to get your money out of modern gems. So I took a random 1193.

On hipstamp alone there are at least 10 above $80 with a 100 grade.

The 98 grade drops to $45.

If you get the cert cheap enough... Sheets of 50 go for under $10. C'mon. You can hunt them out all day and night if you do the proper measurements.

From an investment approach, someone who buys this will learn shortly 10 more will show up to the market in a jiffy and you will be the bag holder. People do look at watch count, san and historic sales of stamps in many ways.

There are/were 290Million of these. Don't kid yourself. It's like collectors of 1980s baseball cards.
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Posted 05/23/2021   3:08 pm  Show Profile Check 51studebaker's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add 51studebaker to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Following on to rismoney's post above...
There are currently 34 graded 100 and 26 graded 98 #1193s in the PSE database. In my opinion there are many more lurking out there if anyone was considering spending money on a high grade #1193. For me and if I were considering buying a graded #1193, a concern would be about the distribution of these existing high grades. For example, 5 of the 100 were submitted together on 2/2/2011, 10 were submitted together on 4/30/2014, and 5 were submitted together on 2/5/2018. Are these from the same owner of a sheet and 80 more will be submitted in the future? Or are these from three separate owners who all are sitting on remaining sheets that might be submitted in the future?
Don
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Posted 05/23/2021   3:42 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Another thing is that unlike classic graded issues semi-modern and modern issues get their grade solely based on centering. I have piles of those mid-twentieth century commemoratives. I have run them through centering software and found numerous 100's. I know that they exist and I know that the market can easily be flooded. Problem is the same no matter how you look at it. The buyers are not there. You can throw all of the SMQ value and POP numbers that you want at the equation. There is really no market. That is precisely why you do not see Rupp and Century stocking scads of 100 Jumbo Poultry Industry stamps. Ed would if they made him money. Nobody wants them. It is the milk and the cow thing. Why do I need to spend $80 and have a grade when I have a pile of them.

STTScott - With all due respect you need to get a bunch of modern stamps graded (pay the fee my friend) and sell them. Report back on your findings.

Me thinks that you will have been better off taking all of that cert cash and buying a really nice $1 Trans-Mississippi.
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Posted 05/23/2021   4:24 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rismoney to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
rogdcam and Don well stated.

I stand by my assessment that unless these certs were obtained on the super cheap or a well heeled buyer was known at the time, they would just not exist. The economics of it are horrific.

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Posted 05/23/2021   9:24 pm  Show Profile Check eyeonwall's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add eyeonwall to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
STTScott - no one would be selling blocks of 4 or 6 for $3-5 if they were worth the kind of money you think they are worth.
You just don't seem to understand that a much higher % of modern stamps are very well centered and a much higher % of the entire printing is still floating around. The supply of very well centered modern stamps exceeds demand.
And in another 30 years, 1950s stamps still will not be considered classics.
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Posted 05/23/2021   9:51 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add revcollector to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
At the beginning of grading there was an attempt to sell those modern issues for high prices, but it did not last very long. They are not uncommon, and frankly no one really cares. Such huge quantities were issued that there are still really large quantities of gradable examples out there.
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Posted 05/24/2021   12:00 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Parcelpostguy to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
At the beginning of grading there was an attempt to sell those modern issues for high prices, but it did not last very long



Scott lists by grade only to 1932 (#715) except for the 1956 #1053, $5 Hamilton. Now I have no interest in a chicken or the egg discussion but the fact stamps of the the period following do not warrant graded pricing is still a function of supply and demand. Well centered (pick your grading number) is common compared to the demand. Are better centered ones worth more? Perhaps; but the spread does not justify the cost of a graded certificate.
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Posted 05/24/2021   12:44 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add STTScott to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
@rismoney said >> With the amount of sheets of modern out there, the goal is changing narratives to entice buyers into being grading sensitive. <<

IMO, there's a lot misguided about that statement.

First, yes, time and technology did allow many more "better" 1950-60 Modern sheets to be produced, as opposed to flat plate printings. BUT -- look at those sheets or even plate blocks on E of Bay. The centering is off anywhere from way-off to still noticeable. So jodern technology didn't automatically make 1950-60 Moderns anything way-above flat plate days.

2. A well-centered stamp is a well-centered stamp, no matter when it was pressed. The 1950-60 Modern era did not -- via technology and whatnot -- herald in a whole boatload of 100-grade stamps like it was nothing. The specimens out there online bear this out. They're basically and largely "worthless" badly-centered averages around 80-85.

But the neat thing is, because 1950-60 Moderns have largely been considered coommon and worthless, there are a lot of 4- and some 6-blocks out there impeccibly centered with CVs in the $50-75 range at 95 and in the hundreds at 98-100 availabe for like $3-5 per block. Not a bad return if that's why you're doing this.

Which brings us to grading, which for some reason is a topic that's been injected here, almost as if grading is the only thing that will save this niche, or make it more acceptable or worthy. Granted, PSE only charges $10 to grade a Modern stamp. But I don't see a ton of individuals shelling out $10 a crack to eBay a Modern stamp that won't be graded 100/gem 98 tops.
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Edited by STTScott - 05/24/2021 12:49 pm
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