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Collapse In Stamp Prices On Better Worldwide Stamps .

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Posted 09/23/2021   2:19 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rismoney to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
That's quite the cynical perspective revenuecollector. The point of an improved pricing catalog is really focused on the transparency around the datapoints it contains. The point is not to get an exact answer. It's to get a realistic idea. That's the mistake people make. It goes back to, it's only worth what someone will pay on a given day.

You want a catalog to provide pricing guidance. You now know 11274a was sold 14 times in the last 30 years, and had high, low, average prices of X dollars.

You might also get links to where to buy that stamp now, either at online auction dealer site (think payment model around referrals). I think that a free catalog is possible, with the motivation of referred sales to vendor networks that realize the benefit of the transparency. These businesses are difficult to imagine in so called 'old boys clubs' but that's why they are disruptors. Suddenly a community is formed around the information, and perhaps even transaction flows to the provider which is where the real incentives lie.

SAN has indeed quite a bit of work on this topic, under the guise of provenance/results, but they are only using their own data sets.



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Posted 09/23/2021   2:22 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add shermae to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Perhaps JConey's vision for how pricing data would be gathered for stamp catalogs could be funded by a new, truly peelable hinge.
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Posted 09/23/2021   2:34 pm  Show Profile Check revenuecollector's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add revenuecollector to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
That's quite the cynical perspective revenuecollector.


Some say cynical, some say realistic, or at the very least, not pie-in-the-sky.


Quote:
You want a catalog to provide pricing guidance. You now know 11274a was sold 14 times in the last 30 years, and had high, low, average prices of X dollars.


That is different from an online/real-time replacement for traditional catalogues, which is how this thread began. Different target audience as well IMO. You're going to have quite the learning curve... or will this online catalogue only be for the tech-savvy... in other words, excluding the lion's share of collectors.

Most people want to look up a single price, not have to have a math degree to figure out what their items are worth. The more granularity you provide, the more widely it can be interpreted or confusing it becomes.

What about very low-population items that rarely change hands? Do they simply not exist in this catalogue or have suspect data due to miniscule sample sizes?

Just random issues, and some of the questions are rhetorical. I don't expect answers. It's not an easy issue to tackle.
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Posted 09/23/2021   2:38 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
The first step in deciding whether or not "improving" any of the catalogs is economically feasible is understanding how much of a market there has been for them, how much of a market there is now and where it might be going given collector numbers and demographics. I think that I know the answer if you compare apples and apples. If however you provided much more usable practical pricing AND allowed ala carte selection of product tailored to your own interests it may change the entire equation. In fact it likely would. It has always irked me that I am buying so many countries worth of data just to get the one or two or five countries that I really want. Of course pirates and bootleggers have filled the void but I will not deal with them.
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Posted 09/23/2021   3:23 pm  Show Profile Check 51studebaker's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add 51studebaker to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Standardized metadata and a large data set is what is required (technically capable users are not). https://towardsdatascience.com/figu...11450b3b252b
Don

Edit: No need to read through the geeky data science stuff if you are not interested. You can jump to the end and read the 'Overall conclusion' section. I think it correctly identifies the issue here; "perspective". Looking at it from a single end user it is easy to think 'this is too complex to be bothered with'. But looking at it from 'our business is to provide accurate market values' big data and data science is a possible solution. The author has it exactly right, "The possibilities are unlimited if you just have enough data."
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Posted 09/23/2021   3:41 pm  Show Profile Check revenuecollector's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add revenuecollector to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
"The possibilities are unlimited if you just have enough data and money."


Fixed that for ya!
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Posted 09/23/2021   3:46 pm  Show Profile Check 51studebaker's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add 51studebaker to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Agreed. I would add that hardcopy catalog publishers who are facing extinction might also be motivated.
Don
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Posted 09/23/2021   7:56 pm  Show Profile Check eyeonwall's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add eyeonwall to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Revenuecollector - I totally agree with your 2 posts that start off with "This issue is rehashed ad nauseam every 6 months or so" and with "In this wonderful utopia of scraped data that will automagically be more accurate than any printed catalogue"
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Posted 09/23/2021   7:58 pm  Show Profile Check eyeonwall's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add eyeonwall to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
To you data mining people - do you seriously think it is possible to scrape data from eBay and not have it be completely polluted by misidentified stamps and stamps with undescribed faults and overly optimistic grading? Garbage, garbage out.
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Posted 09/23/2021   8:17 pm  Show Profile Check 51studebaker's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add 51studebaker to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Do you think that there is no bad data in used car data, health research data, etc and that bad data is unique to eBay? Or that overly optimistic grading does not occur with used cars?

Folks can throw all the rocks they want at big data while it is all around us and impacting everything we do on a daily basis. FYI, I am no fan boy of big data nor tech, even after spending my career in it. In fact, as I have gotten older I now believe that tech and data are now out-of-control and doing real damage to our society. But this only supports the fact that it 'works'.
Don
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Posted 09/23/2021   9:20 pm  Show Profile Check eyeonwall's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add eyeonwall to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Just because used car data is problematic die not make data scraped from eBay less problematic.
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Posted 09/23/2021   9:35 pm  Show Profile Check 51studebaker's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add 51studebaker to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Any really large data set contains bad data. The author of the article linked above covers bad data pretty well.

In my opinion the issue is not about dealing with bad data, bad data has always existed and will always exist. Statistical you can overcome bad data and there are other ways to account for bad data (see article). As a person who has spend the last 9 years working for an NIH funded medical research team, I can say for sure that bad data even enters into our healthcare.

For me the real issue is not about bad data but rather about using data in bad ways. Data is like nuclear fusion, it can be used in good ways and it can be used in bad ways. And just like nuclear fusion, there will always be folks on both sides of the debate.
Don


Edit: There is an entire industry dedicated to 'bad data' and fixing it; note that there many types of bad data. Personally, I have been building designing databases since the early 1990s. Users enter all kinds of bad data especially in free-form text fields like 'descriptions'. This is one of the reasons that eBay moved away from relying upon the listing description fields and more towards defined Item Specifics.
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Posted 09/24/2021   06:27 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add angore to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
For sites like psestamps, I always wondered how much data supports each price by grade.

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Posted 09/24/2021   07:17 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
From PSE:


Quote:
"The SMQ is an attempt to collect and report the prices seen in the market place for graded stamps, through online sales, auctions and what private sales we receive information on."


That's it. How deep the effort goes is anyone's guess. Elsewhere in the publication it says:


Quote:
The estimated values in the SMQ and SMV are meant to be a buying guide for you. They represent the average dealer asking prices known to us, i.e. what a knowledgeable dealer would probably charge you for a stamp.


That seems to conflict, at least to a point, with the first statement.

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Posted 09/24/2021   11:45 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add cjpalermo1964 to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Some of the posts here appear to assume that automated retrieval of market transaction data is essential, followed by Herculean efforts to clean and prepare the data. But alternatives exist. In JK Courtis, "Macro Analyses of Large Databases of Postal Stationery Wrappers," 130-252 London Philatelist (September 2021), Dr. John K. Courtis FRPSL describes how he hand collected data, primarily from eBay, over a 17-year period and created both a better catalogue (he terms it a "personal identifier" or "supply database") of 61,000 different images of used worldwide postal stationery wrappers, and a separate "demand database" of 26,500 sales transactions. By daily hand collection—perfectly appropriate for the specialist collector of a stamp, issue, or country—he created immensely useful data that enable him both to verify the extant population of various issues compared to open-market catalogue reports, and to understand market pricing for items of interest. Interesting, his market data showed a downward decline of 50% in average market price for these items over 16 years. The 8-page article has numerous tables and charts and readily demonstrated that the dedicated hobbyist has the capability to understand the market deeply if they want to take the time. This is his eighth article since 2007 relating to this project or its data.
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