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American Gardens Pane Of 20 Scott# 5461-5470

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Posted 09/24/2021   10:43 am  Show Profile Bookmark this topic Add gjmmaddog to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
Linn's commented on 9/23/221 about this Pane issued during 2020 (non denominated se-tenant) and their alleged scarity in aftermarket. They cited most dealers/collectors no longer buy in quantity

My question:

How does one decide which factors for issues in last 5 years, determines "re-sell value" potential?

Do you look at at quantity printed, printing co, type of printing, se-tenant,design, subject, how soon USPS discontinues their on line inventory?

I realize all of the above are factors.

However, for the American Gardens (issued in 2020) 50 Mil quantity, it seems the price appreciation came quickly.



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Posted 09/24/2021   1:27 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add gwanghoops to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
American Gardens is a nice looking sheet giving it slight value relative to other similar panes regardless of quantity.

Comparatively, look at 2018 O'Beautiful sheet at 60M produced that sells for $38+ on eBay.
Much nicer looking sheet (one of the best US recently?).
Wish I could have bought a bunch just on looks but in 2018 I didn't care about US modern and likely couldn't pick it out as a winner.

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Posted 09/24/2021   8:20 pm  Show Profile Check eyeonwall's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add eyeonwall to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
"How does one decide which factors for issues in last 5 years, determines "re-sell value" potential?"

first of all it isn't that easy to predict, and second of all if there was a magic formula that did work and it was published it would cease to work because that would then cause those issues to be bought in quantity, thus insuring they would be common.

Collect for fun.
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Posted 09/25/2021   07:16 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add angore to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I had posted part of the article in another thread on discussion of values.



As his article notes, to make this profitable you have to buy a large quantity of stamps. By the time you subtract shipping, Paypal fees, and guessing wrong on some issues (lot of money in stock). etc. it may not be as profitable as it make look.

A better indicator is what dealers pay for modern issues. For example, dealer Stu Katz's buy list is here http://www.stuartkatz.com/postageSA.htm.

Please note Gitner is a full time specialty stamp dealer and is reflected in his sale prices.






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Al
Edited by angore - 09/25/2021 07:26 am
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Posted 09/25/2021   12:13 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add oldboldandbrash to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Hmm. Best looking newer issue? I don't know about that. I would argue the trans continental railroad issue of what was it, 2019? was prettier; the heritage breed sheet was surprisingly to my liking as well. Hey wait a second what about the Native American Raven's Story? Hot Wheels? They've been pushing out some mighty pretty and mighty collectibles stamps lately, no need to hoard these.
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Posted 09/25/2021   6:04 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add chris s to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
oldboldandbrash - I agree. And I would say the USPS showed a vast improvement in design with the Mars Rover stamp of 1997. There were still ups and downs and the USPS still produces duds (the Message Monsters and Backyard Games are quite subpar.

I am a bit new but I have bought some panes from 2017 and here are what I think are some of the strongest designs (although wonder if you were being a little sarcastic about these commemoratives being collectible)

Postal Murals - a great series and one I wish they would revisits. For example one of the best murals I have seen in a public space was recently "The Return of Annie Oakley" in the Nutley, NJ post office. Worth a visit if you are in that part of New Jersey as they are well-stocked --- I was able to get 3 $10 Waves stamps, a product I never usually can get except online. Plus Nutley's Franklin Avenue is a lovely downtown. I would love to see another Postal Mural series focusing say on the Northeast showing murals such as the one in Nutley.

Harlem Renaissance - just great and creative portraits and they make a great 20 stamp sheet.

Thank You stamps - excellent calligraphy with gold embossing on the lettering.

Transcontinental Railroad - an extremely well-done and designed set of stamps.

Raven Story - this is something which you have to get a 20 stamp sheet to appreciate it fully. he stamp is well designed and beautiful.

And thanks for pointing out Heritage Breeds. Excellent photography and again well-done. I may get two sheets one for my collection another for postage. Just not sure. I have gotten several for 2021 already so I may want to hold off.
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Posted 09/26/2021   11:06 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add philatomic to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
The Heritage Breeds stamps are no longer available on the USPS web site or in their eBay store. You may be able to find them at post offices.
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Posted 09/30/2021   12:57 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Torin to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
The OP raises excellent questions. Some recent no longer sold by USPS Forever issues are selling for 2x to 3x their face value. Mister Rogers and Cactus Flowers are examples. Perhaps beloved people and plants/flowers stamps retain their popularity and value.
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Posted 10/04/2021   9:10 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add chris s to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I would add a few more points to why panes of 20 for recent issues sell so well:
1) Those issues with multiple designs are often not presented in an entire column or row. If so, usually only one.
2) Because of 1) you end up with a larger design from the alteration and repetition of the of the different designs which can be quite pleasing, especially as the USPS varies it and does this also for the postcard stamps.
3) Production of these stamps is well under 100 million for most and is less than they heyday of stamp collecting - from the late 30's to mid 80's.

Below I provide production amounts for some commemoratives ranging from 2017 to present (as of October 2021):


Father Theodore Hesburgh - 2 million
Voices of Harlem Renaissance - 16 million
Raven Story; Message Monsters; Missouri Statehood; Emilio Sanchez; Chien-Shiung Wu: Tap Dance - 18 million
Go For Broke & Hip Hop stamps & Little Mo & Drug Free USA; Backyard Games; Yogi Berra & Alabama stamps & Arnold Palmer; Lunar Year of the OX; - 20 million; 26.5 million; 25 million; 24 million
Sun Science; Day of the Dead - 30 million; 35 million
Lighthouse & George H W Bush stamps &Spooky Silhouettes; August Wilson - 40 million; 45 million
T Rex stamps - 50 million
Star Wars Droid - 60 million
Hot Wheels - 100 million
Scooby Doo - 252 million




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Edited by chris s - 10/04/2021 9:28 pm
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Posted 10/05/2021   07:34 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add angore to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
The Heritage Breeds stamps are no longer available on the USPS web site or in their eBay store. You may be able to find them at post offices.


Most post offices I have been at stock very few stamps. I do not think some designs sell well plus a bookkeeping hassle for the post office so they just mostly stock the flowers, etc.
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Al
Edited by angore - 10/05/2021 07:36 am
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Posted 10/05/2021   08:31 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
When they say "50 million issued" are they talking about panes of 20 which would actually mean 2.5 million per design?
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Posted 10/05/2021   6:00 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add chris s to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
rogdcam -- actually that is a good question. When you go to the USPS site and click on the stamps look at product specs. If it says 50 million that means total amount of stamps from all of its products. Linn's when it lists the current or upcoming USPS seems to interpret that way. So, yes that would mean from a total of 50 million of a particular issue, there is 10 million of each stamp design if there are 5 designs. This would further support the popularity of commemorative issues with multiple designs - each stamp ends up having a lower number produced than those with a single design such as the Yogi Berra with a production amount of 25 million.


For example the Yogi Berra stamp has 25 million stamps produced for sale. The Sun Science has total production of 30 million but with its 10 multiple designs there is available 3 million of each design. There are 1.5 million panes of 20 available. You can get the ten designs in top and bottom two rows of the pane - so there are actually more complete rows of the stamp design available than panes of 20 (6 million). Comparing the Yogi Berra pane and then what is available in the Sun Science pane, the lowest amount of product for sale are the 20 stamp panes.

Commemorative and postcard stamps sold in panes of 20 occasionally have only one row or column with all the designs. The Coral Reef pane is an excellent example of this and shows the pleasing mosaic designs created by the alteration and skipped repetition of stamp designs. Note the 3rd row is the only place you can get a strip of the 4 designs - not the easiest spot to remove a row without risking some tearing or partial removal of backing. But it makes for an interesting mathematical fact - the amount of a complete strip of Coral Reef postcard designs equals the amount of 20 stamp panes available = 5 million from a total of all stamps of 100 million.

This characteristic of it being difficult to get all designs of a commemorative stamp and postcard issue once in awhile is found with coil stamps. The reasons are different: post office now simply print a receipt strip for postage due and rarely use small denomination stamps. The only coils I see post offices selling are Flag first class mail coils because they never seem to sell low denomination coil stamps. The USPS eventually ends up selling low denomination stamps in panes - but only some of the denominations of a series. One example are the Meyer fruit coil 1 ,2 and 3 cent stamps which no post office I have been sells so the only option is pay a premium on the secondary market or get the minimum amount (1,000 I think) online. So to get a complete set of the Meyer fruit coil stamps online would cost you well over $200 and have you stick with thousands of stamps.

In sum, sometimes market value is partially determined by a false scarcity caused by the product being difficult to get in small amounts (coil stamps) or the trouble to get it is not worth it as it is contained in a far more accessible and available format (commemorative and postcard panes.)

As for what will be collectible in the future --- not sure. If the USPS continues to have certain commemoratives like Heritage Breed sell out within months or simply pulled early from sale, these may have a chance. But again the main question is how many of these stamps are actually being used or simply saved --- if the latter, we end up with a situation that now plagues those who hoarded rolls of 1940's and 1950's Wheat cents making many of the circulated ones worth close to face value.

Well at least the USPS with some of its panes create some beautiful mosaics that will attract collectors as myself - see the Coral Reef below.



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Edited by chris s - 10/05/2021 7:25 pm
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Posted 10/05/2021   6:35 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Chris - Thank you so much for that excellent and detailed explanation. Good stuff!
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Posted 10/05/2021   7:31 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add chris s to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
No problem. But one proviso, the numbers are based on how I interpret and Linn has in past of USPS production numbers. The only way to confidently check the veracity of my assumption is to email USPS. Which I will do.

However everything else I wrote is true that 1) some panes of stamps with multiple designs are designed to make it difficult to get a row or column with all the designs; 2) the panes create sometimes lovely mosaic patterns from the placement of the various stamp designs that make them attractive to collectors, 3) the amount of non-definitive stamps has been falling for years and continues to do so making them seem a little scarce compared to the stamps production of the 1940's through 1980's.

In the meantime I will get back to the forum once I hear back from USPS.

PS rogdcam, you are not alone in asking for clarity of USPS stamp production numbers given on their site. Stampworld seems to either think if the stamps produced is 20 million then each design will have 20 million but then for other stamps they assume if there are 20 million then the production numbers of multiple designs will equal 20 million See this selection from Stampworld for the inconsistency of production numbers due to the two possible interpretations - 2020 American Gardens production numbers versus 2020 Voice OF Harlem Renaissance.

ww.stampworld.com/stamps/United-States/Postage%20stamps/2020-2021?user=476767&page=4
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Edited by chris s - 10/06/2021 12:51 pm
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Posted 10/05/2021   7:37 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Torin to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Chris s: Excellent explanation! I think the Coral Reef stamps are visually stunning too and they remind me of #2863-66 Wonders of the Sea. I just wish they were larger size, like the Wonders of the Sea stamps, which would be more suitable for framing and displaying. I know space is of prime importance on a postcard, hence the small size of the Coral Reef stamps, but I think they should have been non-postcard stamps.
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Posted 10/06/2021   10:38 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add philatomic to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Chris s,

I don't understand your comments about the Coral Reefs pane of 20. You can get a strip of 4 different designs from any row or column in the pane. What you can't get is a block of 4 (2 x 2) that includes all 4 designs. For collectors that want their strip in Scott number order, those can only be obtained from the first two horizontal rows, beginning with the stamp with the black fish.

The Coral Reefs were also issued in a coil of 100. Indeed you must buy an entire roll to get these from the USPS. The Scott number order is different for the coils, the first stamp in the sequence being the one with the red fish.

With regard to the Fruits series, all five designs (1c Apples, 2c Meyer Lemons, 3c Strawberries, 5c Grapes, 10c Red Pear) were issued in coils of 3000 and 10000. These large coils are intended for use by bulk mailers who typically apply them to mail pieces mechanically. Most post offices wont stock them. The USPS made available strips of 500 of all of the coils which you could obtain if you ordered by phone. Although the order numbers for the strips of 500 last appeared in USA Philatelic in the 3rd quarter, 2020 issue, they may still be available. I last ordered a strip of 500 in February of this year. The order number for the strips of 500 consists of the base 4 digit item number plus '04' for the last 2 digits. The base item numbers for the coils of 3000 and 10000 are different.

Only the 5c Grapes and 10c Red Pears were issued in panes of 20. These can be ordered from the USPS web site and there is no minimum quantity, but there will be a modest shipping charge. For customers who need other low value stamps for postage, the 1c Tiffany Lamp, 2c Navajo Necklace, and 3c Silver Coffeepot from the previous series are also still available in panes of 20 on the USPS web site. Your local post office may have some or all of these low value panes.
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