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Latest Kelleher Auction - Unreal Competition!

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Posted 12/04/2021   11:52 pm  Show Profile Check eyeonwall's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add eyeonwall to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
They paid $10 each plus the 18% (11.80) , do you really think they can average $59 each? I didn't look at everything, but while the 7th & 8th videos looked interesting, te 1st was mostly common or minor and all three had lots of duplication (= will take a long time to sell)
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Posted 12/05/2021   05:24 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rismoney to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
All the lots weren't equal- yes you are correct.

The efo category on eBay is bifurcated into two uneven groups. A very small set of sellers of no reserve auctions (~1000 items in the section) who are trying to unload fast. The second is a few dealers/sellers with high markup items, particulaly on non cat varieties, however cat items are like 75%+ cat. (13000-14000 items in total). These folks are in absolutely no rush and couldn't care less, generally speaking about accepting an offer unless it's within 10% of asking.

The no reserve auctions are almost entirely NYstanps or CK stamps, Even the efo dealers are using these guys to source their material, sure to difficulty sourcing material. Those I'd say yield close to the price these offerings went for.

The other 13000 items are then priced at high multiples creating a very static long term listed market. If you bought these Kelleher offerings, you can price your wares, even slightly less than your next nearest competitor and rip through inventory. Any lots that get listed at lesser multiples get sold in short time

Do I think every stamp can hit 5x or more? No, but I think many can hit 7-8+ and average out 2-3x for sure. The better ones can be 10x or more.

I think if you look at completed items outside of the no reserve auctions, you would be shocked at the prices people are paying for this stuff. Only the worst material needs any sort of bundling in this category, and you can almost always add a decent one with the fodder to increase the appeal at a multiple to force push the lot out.



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Posted 12/05/2021   07:33 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add floortrader to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I have to be in agreement with what others here have said . A lot of areas which are low catalog lots have done well ,it is a surprise to many that at this auction ---THE BUYERS CAME TO BUY .

My interest being the better country lots with higher value stamps and the better complete sets ,just ran away at this auction pricewise .

As mention already the Scott Internationals and Minkus album collections just show strong buying interest .Today I am going to write in the prices realised into my hardcopy of the auction catalog .
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Posted 12/05/2021   08:06 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add revcollector to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
It's always better to estimate a lot a little too low then a little too high.
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Posted 12/05/2021   08:51 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Russia is my thing and there were some shockers there as well. I reviewed the lots carefully through the videos and PDF's and honestly can't say how those bids would be justified if you were bidding based upon value as opposed to emotion. The lot that went for the greatest multiplier was purchased for about 40% of catalog and contained bread and butter material that sells for 40% or less of catalog on eBay every day of the year.

The prices for Russia here now drive me to Europe for material for my collection.
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Posted 12/05/2021   09:31 am  Show Profile Check eyeonwall's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add eyeonwall to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
"Do I think every stamp can hit 5x or more? No, but I think many can hit 7-8+ and average out 2-3x for sure. The better ones can be 10x or more." That is very different (and more realistic) than your earlier "I expect to see the buyers hitting 5-10x returns by breaking them up into individual lots"

"The other 13000 items are then priced at high multiples creating a very static long term listed market. If you bought these Kelleher offerings, you can price your wares, even slightly less than your next nearest competitor and rip through inventory. Any lots that get listed at lesser multiples get sold in short time"

I put up misperfs at price lower than the 99c guys get and lower than what Stu & Mike ask and much of it still doesn't sell very fast because I don't have many followers. I could probably get more follwers if I listed more, but I work full time.
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Posted 12/05/2021   09:41 am  Show Profile Check revenuecollector's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add revenuecollector to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Over the COVID era, I've been doing increasingly less and less purchasing online, simply due to the competition out there. The bargains aren't to be had anywhere near what they were pre-COVID, and for better items the competition is fierce. I don't even bother with the major auction houses, not only because there haven't been any good U.S. revenue auctions in the last 2 years, but being a low-to-moderate budget buyer, it just ends up being a waste of my time.

I've shifted to doing more buying in person at shows, especially smaller club shows and 1-day events here in the midwest. It's a bit of an about-face from my pre-COVID methods. I visit Denny Peoples at his home once a month or so in between shows, and this month while visiting my Mom in PA for the holidays I'm stopping by to visit Eric Jackson. Richard Friedberg is a bit out of my way on this trip, but at some point in the next year I might make a brief road trip to visit his store.

At least with in-person visits I can fully view what I'm buying, and it's nice to socially engage with people I know.
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Edited by revenuecollector - 12/05/2021 09:43 am
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Posted 12/05/2021   10:26 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add sheetguy2 to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
rismoney.....I was the underbidder on the big EFO lot....but did get 1 of the other big EFO lots....some nice and misdescribed items in those lots!
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Posted 12/17/2021   08:58 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rismoney to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
So it's clear Stu won the bicentennial sheet EFO lot with 150 sheets in it for $2000. He's broken up maybe the first 20 sheets or so on eBay, and collectively he's asking over 10k... If he sells even 1 of those higher end errors he'll be above breakeven on everything else. Hardly an effort for practically selling sheets intact. Will they sell right away? who knows, but it was an easy stock builder for sure with plenty of haggle room to accept offers and appear generous.







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