Is This A Good Time To Buy Stamps (Assuming Inflation Continues) Or Sell Stamps?

Blclr,

I think the question you want to ask is "Are stamps as good a hedge as anything else?" Gold and Silver are traditionally hedges against inflation, but I personally do not know anyone whose made money having a small percentage of their portfolio in precious medals. If you view the idea of a "hedge, as a way to perserve principle, I would say stamps (i.e. quality stamps) are a good way to protect principle, but you ain't gonna get rich.

I try to preserve my principles, but rarely preserve my principal.

Paris,

For the past two decades (2002-21) stocks, gold, and silver had the following cumulative growth rates, respectively: 542%, 561%, and 459%. Cumulative inflation over these two decades: 52%. So stocks, gold, and silver have all not just maintained principal, but have shown significant real growth. But if you look at Don's chart, the Zepps have been on a slight downward trajectory in real value over the past two decades.

So once again, stamps (again excepting true rarities) have not been good hedges against inflation, or sufficient to maintain principle. A few years ago I purchased a cover for approximately $500. I went back and checked the auction history for the item, and in the prior two decades it had sold twice, each time for approximately $500. The previous owners did not see that cover hold its value in real terms. And I don't expect it to do so for me, either. If my heirs can get $500 for it, when the time comes, they should count themselves lucky.

Outside the world of pieces worth 10's or 100's of thousands of dollars, stamps are not a good investment however you look at it.

Basil

GeoffHa

When I was learning to spell, my teacher told me the Principal was my pal.

I knew he wasn't when he whacked me around the back of the legs for scoring insufficiently highly in our weekly maths tests at junior school.

Bljr,

If you go back to when I started collecting stamps(1948) I believe gold was $24 per ounce, so you are correct, if I had starte collecting gold bars then and spent as much money as I did on stamps over the years, I would be quite wealthy now. But over the last 10 years, the difference between the two is close, and stamps (high values) would have been the better bet:

Gold Price in USD per Troy Ounce for Last 10 Years
Current Price $1,838.64
10 Year High $2,067.16
10 Year Low $1,049.41
10 Year Change $+111.64 (6.46%)

Today's price of gold is higher than it was 10 years ago by 6.46% And during the past 10 years, gold has come down from its high of $2,067 to $1,839, loosing rouhly $230 from its high. Of course you could also say it gained $800 from its low. The problem is of course, timing when to buy.

Of course, if I had a crystal ball, I would have sold my stamp collection the 90's and bought APPLE, Amazon, GOOGLE and maybe a few other stocks and I would be a billionaire today.

Paris,

No quarrel here, but if you go back just 10 years, you are zeroed in on a period of significant decline during that period that did not exist in the 10 years prior to that:

The longer term view, going back to when we went off the gold standard:

I wish I had invested in some of those stocks you mention too!

Bljr,

Yup, how good] gold is depends upon when you start looking. Unfortunately, and this has nothing to do with our discussion, but looking at the present U.S. government, and policies and the direction in which my country is headed, I do not see a bright economic future, and economic doldrums is about the best I hope for.

I held some gold during that long 20-year flat period, and it did nothing except hold its value. Sold before it started climbing of course. Hindsight is 20-20.

Gold is also tied to 'world stress', buy up now and when War Inc. gets a nasty conflict going in Ukraine you should enjoy a decent upswing.
Don

No doubt. I worked in Iraq and Afghanistan for one of the largest DoD contractors and my contacts that are still with the company are rooting for a big conflict/war. Destruction = $$$ Actually makes me nauseous. The human suffering that is part and parcel of these things is horrible from a distance let alone up close and personal. And of course, even though the US is in debt up to the top of its head we will throw many, many billions into this.

To wrap things up, the stamp that was purchased for $240 plus tip from Cherrystone just sold for $565 on eBay. An airmail set that retails for $125 at Loral sold for $200. Everything went like that.

Wow.

I think most people who read this page don't understand the difference between investing and speculating in stamps .

My guess is that 1/4 of 1% of stamps sold are for investing and maybe 5% of the sale dollars spend . Speculating is many times those figures .

Then you can break down the percentage of stamps that are sold to collectors ,those sold for resale and the huge amount sold to hoarders .

Then you can break down the collector market to something like 80% to beginner collectors and 20% to serious collectors .

Thru all this are the speculators ,some are collectors and some are dealers,even the hoarders are hoping to speculate .

Floortrader,

Very good point on investing, speculating and hoarding. But you left out, collecting because you enjoy it. Yes, I love to get stamps at a bargain. And I love it when stamps I own go up in value. But for me, that really isn't the point. I have been stamp collecting, or holding a stamp collection for 73 years. During the last 15 years, I didn't even look at my stamp collection. Now, because of my daughter's interest, I am looking at the collection and it is like everything is new. Going back to my French collection which I've talked about a lot, I have 5 Schaubek volumes of France. Book One is, as I have said almost complete, and it goes from France #1 to 1960. It does NOT include special cancellations or "Balloons Montes" or inverts. Just regular post, semi-postal, and Airmail. Until yesterday the only volume I looked at was Volume one. Yestrday, I looked at the other volumes

I hope to get 59 of the missing 60 stamps in the first volume. I should probably start with the more common ones, which are inexpensive but about half of the 60 stamps. About 5 to 10 of the stamps are Scott valued at around $1,000, or between $1,000 to $2000, but I am 100% positive I can get them for a fraction of those costs if I bide my time, and wait 'til I see the right price. The right price for me is about 40% of Scott value. And if that doesn't happen, I can always settle for the cancelled version, or the hinged version. My 19th Century stamps are largely cancelled. All of my semi postals are MNH starting from the war orphan sets after WWI. I will soon have all but 2 of the Airmails (Both of which are out of my price range.)And I will also complete regular poatage MNH from the beginning of the 20th century to 1960

Yesterday, I looked at volume two, France. That covers about 15 years from 1960 on. I was surprised to find that that volume is compolete MNH, most booklets. Pretty much the same for volume III which goes to about 1990. Complete, MNH. Volume 4 is 1990 to early 2000s. That is about 2/3 complete, and Volume 5, early 2000, mostly incomplete, The stamps in the last 4 albums are MNH perfedtly centered.

If I were to cover France completely, I would have to buy another Schaubek volume and at least 100 more pages, not to mention most of the stamps. So I may stop the collection at the year 2000.

That is the most complete collection I have save for Greenland, which I am only missing about 5 stamps to the year 2000.

These are nice collections, as are some of my others, but you have to remember this is the work of a lifetime. I am 78 years old. I've been collecting since I was 5. I have never sold a stamp in that time period (although I have traded and given away stamps. I do not and never have collected to make money. Which is lucky, since I would likely would not make any money. I do it because it is an engaging hobby.

You did well picking the Schaubek album. One of the irritations of my Yvert albums is the decision to include spaces for unissued stamps because they have a main catalogue number - who's likely to pick up the overprinted Ceres stamps from the 1850s? These have higher CVs than the Ceres 1Fr vermilion and the Sage Prussian blue.

If I were you, I shouldn't go beyond 2000. I have some later material, and much of it is very disappointing compared with earlier designs. And there's far too much of it.