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Possible Ebay Bid Rigging?

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Posted 02/11/2022   7:37 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add GMC89 to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Naked shorts?
Robinhood and Cerebus?
Legal?
Cheers mark

Sorry about that, probably too oblique.
A naked short is when you sell shares you do not own. A short is when you borrow shares sell them, hoping to buy back cheaper to replace the borrowed. Naked shorts are illegal. Robinhood funnels all their trades thru Cerebus a high frequency trader, and then is paid by Cerebus for the busines. The SEC is about to rule that illegal which is why Robinhood is in the dump." Flash boys" by Michael Lewis who also wrote"The Big Short" explains a lot of this. My Pop always said "just because it's legal doesn't make it right" , the most honest man who ever lived.
Cheers, mark
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Edited by GMC89 - 02/11/2022 8:19 pm
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Posted 02/12/2022   02:46 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add DrewM to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
It's always fascinating to see moose competing during the rut by slamming their antlered heads into each other. But it doesn't prove much. Meanwhile, back to the subject of shill bidding . . .

"I cannot wrap my head around 6500+ bids on 3200+ items in 30 days. I don't understand how that's possible for an individual. It sounds like a full-time job honestly."

I agree. If I do the simple math on this, this guy is bidding over 200 times a day (more like 215) on at least 100 items a day. It takes me at least a few minutes to make one eBay bid, more if I'm checking my "stamps needed" list and double-checking the catalogue and looking at the listed item carefully to be sure it's what I want, comparing it with the same item on eBay or Hipstamp, and so forth. So, let's say, 5 minutes per bid at the fastest possible pace - give or take -- but more likely 10 minutes if I'm moving at my normal pace. That's 1000 to 2000 (at the slower pace) minutes bidding every day. That means someone is sitting there on his computer for 16 hours a day -- 24+ hours a day at the slower pace -- every day for 30 days. I don't believe that is physically even possible. No food? No sleep? Impossible.

So, no, I don't believe someone is making all these bids. This must either be automated or a group of people. Whatever that proves. Or it's an actual collector who bids, bids again, bids again, bids again, driving the price up -- which is stupid, we all know, but maybe this guy is just a complete idiot. Day after day he's an idiot. But, assuming he's not an idiot, it can't be a single collector making all those bids. And the intention can't be to buy items, but to drive the prices up. If an employee or two employees of a seller were assigned to do this every day, to drive prices up bid by bid by bid, that would explain it. What other reasonable scenario is there to explain what appears to be a single individual bidding 16-24 hours a day for 30 days without stopping except that it's not a single individual bidding one bid at a time without sleep or food?
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Edited by DrewM - 02/12/2022 02:49 am
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Posted 02/12/2022   08:20 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
That example does not bother me because I can guarantee it is another large seller's account trying to score material to flip.

Shill bidders are not that blatant about exposing themselves and almost without fail their numbers stay average in order to not raise red flags.

I am watching some lots right now that were not doing much and so a bidder showed up as usual that is private and started to pump the number up.

The same seller has several lots with very high cv items that were "sold" several months ago and are back again. I remember the lots and that they were never bid into retail price territory. I knew they would be back. Shill bidding only works if a real bidder bites.

Shilling is real and expected, hard to detect and prove and not going away. It exists because of unrealistic hopes and expectations on behalf of buyers of the "big score". Realistic opening bids would make most of it go away instead of silly 99 cent openings for things that will NEVER be purchased for anything less than normal market prices.

If everything was priced normally though it would not be good old eBay. People have expectations now, silly or not.
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Posted 02/12/2022   5:58 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rismoney to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I like the 99c openings, because it lets the market dictate the price... auctions do sneak through, particularly when the seller doesn't realize the end time. Sometimes they rnd midday or at night, and you can score nice material based on traffic for popular time zones like (EST)
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Posted 02/12/2022   6:02 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
because it lets the market dictate the price.


IF there is no hanky-panky. Otherwise, the market is not dictating anything.
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Posted 02/13/2022   09:46 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add hungrypirana to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Thanks for all comments. They were, in a couple cases, educational.

I've reported to eBay approximately 10 specific auctions of what appears to be shill bidding. Most were lots I've linked to in an earlier post. Although eBay prohibits shill bidding (see "Shill Bidding Policy), it has a couple conflicts of interest when it comes to enforcement.

Therefore, altho I'm not confident eBay will deeply investigate u***7, I'll report more cases in future as they come to my attention.

Two conclusions I've drawn from this exercise....

1. There's enough evidence to assert u***7 likely is part of a sophisticated activity to elevate prices on thousands of lots.

2. I'll not bid on CK lots in the near future, although I may make a few rare exceptions.
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Posted 02/13/2022   12:09 pm  Show Profile Check KRelyea's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add KRelyea to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
When it comes to eBay you can't be certain about anything, it's too big and too diverse but one thing I'm sure of, if you don't bid with CKstamps they won't care (or even know).
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Posted 02/13/2022   12:21 pm  Show Profile Check 51studebaker's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add 51studebaker to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
eBay cannot possibly vet the user accounts; they cannot go to every physical address and verify. And just as obviously, they cannot prevent shrill bidding. Anyone can have a friend or a paid person run bids up on their listings if they desire. eBay can only, at very best, detect certain trends but even then they are limited in making sweeping assumptions on the relationships between people who own the accounts.

Is eBay motivated to detect shill bidding? No, having auctioned item values pushed higher price puts more money in their pocket if it sells. It is true that some percentage of shill bidder listings just get relisted but I doubt this is on eBay's cost radar screens. Complaining is just burning time. Anything that results in more cost to eBay simply gets turned around and charged back to anyone who uses eBay.

For me, the bottom line is eBay's inability to vet accounts. It is the root of all " eBay evil" and something that all eBay users ultimately accept and live with.
Don
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Posted 02/13/2022   1:05 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add archerg to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Once you are wise to a seller who manipulates price, you either stop bidding altogether or you bid in a way that neutralizes the shill.

Your advantage always lies in elevating your expertise in your field of collecting interest.

Getting shilled does not necessarily mean you overpaid for the item!

Usually the shill bidder will cheat you the first time or two but loses in the long run. I have purchased bargains many times from sellers who have a bad reputation for price manipulation.
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Posted 02/13/2022   2:10 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply

Quote:
Getting shilled does not necessarily mean you overpaid for the item!


Probably the most perceptive comment in this thread.

As I stated earlier what I observe has nothing to do with jacking a price beyond market value because that is nonsensical and counterintuitive. Few people are going to pay more than market value for something unless they have been searching for it for a long time, building an exhibit or are woefully uneducated about what they are buying. Shilling to gluttonous levels will only net the seller a lot of unsold material (shills are not really buying anything).

Shilling is about obtaining market value for material. When you play the "$1000 cv opening at 99 cent game" you are apt to protect your interest. If you open at a realistic level, you are losing bidders that need the psychological bait of maybe getting the big score.

And the wheel goes round and round.

I have watched a seller open an item at actual retail value and it does not sell. It gets listed next time around with a 99-cent start and sells for MORE than the first listing. Happens repeatedly and consistently.
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Posted 02/13/2022   7:23 pm  Show Profile Check eyeonwall's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add eyeonwall to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
ckstamps has a huge number of followers. There is little chance od a significant % of lots selling for a significantly low price.
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Posted 02/13/2022   10:18 pm  Show Profile Check KRelyea's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add KRelyea to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
In the last 90 days they've sold 5600 items for $10 or less. You have to give them credit it is an awful lot of work to list and ship 5600 items for an average price around $5, but that's partly why they have so many followers.
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Posted 02/13/2022   10:39 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add rogdcam to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Yes sir, that is a lot of work. Wow.
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