Expect Stamp Prices To Weaken Over The Next Few Months .

Great ---We are seeing a nose dive in the stock market this week. Not a big deal to collectors . But add this nose dive to the falling interest rates start to look serious for Stamp Auction stamp buyers .

Then we are seeing a lack of sales on Ebay's stamp section .

So with three things all together , stock market ,plus lower interest rates for older collectors plus a dropping off of EBAY stamp sales we are looking at three negative effects for the stamp auction houses .Older collectors are going to pull back on their buying .
You can add pissed-off overseas buyers holding back any new purchases because of all the jerking around in Government trade policy .

This is not political ,it is all a econimic statement .The stamp market is going to take a punch in the face .

Yes, I have actually had the same thought for a few weeks now.

I will say that yahoo finance's latest article on interest rates and the fed says that they may want to keep rates alone for now, as they digest how this plays out. Obviously, that could change in a moment's notice.

As I read the executive order on tariffs the tariffs will apply to philatelic purchases, unless under the $800 de minimis exemption for countries other than China, and even that exception is supposed to be eliminated once they figure out how to deal with tax collection.

Outside the USA very few people use income from short-term speculation to buy stamps. Also, the rich Arabs and East-Asians laugh at stock-market fluctuations. The big downturn in stock markets, furthermore, is mostly an American phenomenon.

That's not necessarily the point here. The point is the drop in the market, if substantial enough, will likely push the federal reserve into lowering interest rates substantially. This will impact retirees income. Think: stamp collectors. My mother, until she passed away recently, was benefiting greatly from higher interest rates, as she was retired and on fixed income.

Of course falling markets also have the psychological effect on people, where they often feel "less well off", which also is a disincentive for large purchases.

Many of the world's collectors have very little to do with the FED. I doubt the Fed will save the speculators again. Its problem will be inflation and pressure to increase rates.

And if interest rates go up, in much of the world, people receive more interest on their savings accounts.

That is only part of its problem now... which is one of the big problems.

Fighting inflation in an environment where the market is already down over 10%, potentially heading much lower (maybe), creates a major conundrum for the Fed.

I don't care about speculators for this discussion, that was never the point.

Also, I fully realize that my take is from a US-centric market point of view, and this is a global forum, so your mileage may and will vary based upon your geographic location.

We'll see what happens, but floortrader's points, I think are well made, for the US at least.

A great time to buy but for how long nobody knows. These tariffs could be very short lived if the intent is to bring Countries to the negotiating table. IMO the tariffs are not going to be around long because of the political ramifications of inflation and a rising CPI. The current POTUS needs a Congress that supports his agenda and to keep those seats the economy has to be in a place that voters like. Stay tuned.

Agreed. Initially I was thinking a 10% drop would be a good equities buy-in time, but now I'm adjusting that downwards a bit. Still, there are/will-be good opportunities.

There are other factors here as well, including the uncertainty of the future direction of the tech sector and AI. Significant innovation drives the stock market up faster than anything. It got driven up with the hope of AI, now, that is a compounding issue here, as people wait and see if it delivers as promised, and more importantly, who delivers it.

We need to clear a major point here ..

Short term speculation in the stamp market in the U.S. Market has been non-existing for 10 years or more . I was talking as a collector and I believe most selling at stamp auctions in the U.S. is purchased by older collectors who have financial experience in higher interest rates and a interest in the stock market and base their extra buying on both .

What I am saying is this uncertainty in the stock market and interest rates , plus the lower sales numbers on Ebay are causing experience sellers to slow down on their buying , all this hurts aggressive buying at stamp auctions . Look for many buyers to hold off at bidding or adding new material .

That's exactly how I read it. I agree.

Or not.

This is all seat-of-your-pants guessing at chicken entrails.

Dow, 3.98% drop today closing at 10+% (did not bother with right of the decimal point) down from 12-4-2024.

1979 and 1980, now those were some rates.

The ultra-rich can still afford stamps, but for mere mortals, a drop in one's 401k will impact one's discretionary spending, no guesssing.

And all of these predictions one day into the tariffs. Yowza.