Expect Stamp Prices To Weaken Over The Next Few Months .

In the economy perception is very important as it often becomes reality. Powell at his last news conference stated"the hard data is holding up, the soft data is troubling". Soft data is consumer sentiment, the AAII investor survey, the Michigan University survey of consumer expectation etc.. I see the same sentiment here in the various posts.
Public perception is very important and as an investor you ignore it at your peril.

The high end in stamps think Siegel, Harmer will be ok I would think. The low end would be impacted by sentiment, or recession. Almost every economist has raised the risk of recession occurring in the last 3 weeks or so.

cheers mark

edit: removed an opinion on buying oppurtunity

I have noticed a weakness in stamp prices realized on ebay for two months. If these predictions have a ring of truth to them. I see an buying opportunity a head. I will be looking for better United States stamps to buy for my collection and to put back as an investment. I have been buying better stamps at much better prices on ebay than they were a year ago. So I fir one will continue to buy as prices decrease to offset the ones I bought ar higher prices. In this I say it may be a buying opportunity.

As was the case for most of the past four years.

The US Fed's dual mission of fighting inflation and unemployment means that until there is a significant increase in unemployment, the chances of a rate cut are low. Rising inflation Will argue for a rate increase, not a cut.

"This is all seat-of-your--pants guessing " really !! Thanks for your comment
. Since this is a stamp chat board ,lets stay on that subject. You will see more no bid lots at stamp public auctions and a lot more opening bid sales.

This period of 2024/2025 is going to be turning or pivot time where the old guard fades away and new styles start to show up . This event in the financial markets is just going to speed things up for change .

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There has always been a constant slow turnover from the old to the new (its just that there is less of the new coming in than the old leaving). There is not going to be some magic one year pivot.

These events are going to speed this up .....not magic in one year .......but the lost of the "old guard " ,lack of sales on the internet , financial crisis both equities and falling interest rates, plus overseas customers reducing buying in our market are all factors ---- In speeding up this lowering of bidding at stamp auction houses ,that is what I posted .

Too early to say exactly how the stamp market will fare in the face of the stock markets incredible volatility. So let's look at this with a much broader view:

A) The high end of the stamp market will suffer during economic downturns as people curtail their purchases of non-essential items, especially expensive ones. Of course some famed rarities will not suffer too much but now people will be far more targeted in their collecting and be forced to do much more research.

B) The area of stamp purchases that will not suffer is the inexpensive stamps from the heyday of hoarding and overproduction - mid 1930's through the late 1980's. And yes many modern stamps after the late 1980's due to persistent overproduction of the issues rather than quantity of each issue (which I had written elsewhere is much lower than decades ago but then at that time the number of annual issues was MUCH less). We are in a period where there are tons of bargains to be had from this area - who knows how long it will last.

C) Certain areas I think that have been undervalued for a long time will improve - postal covers are inexpensive and new collectors are discovering some of the scarcities with historic import coming from the Cold War era -- for example certain postal covers from the period between the end of WW2 and the establishment of the Iron Curtain, postal covers from the Levant (in particular Palestine/Israel/TransJordan) and the countries that make up the former ancient civilizations of Persia (Iran from 1979 to early 1980's, early postal covers from the 40's and 50's for example), postal covers and FDCs from Communist China in the mid 1960's to early 70's under Mao, and more.

From my own modest experience selling on Ebay I find that for modern stamps since 1940, it is best to list items as Buy It Now, too often auctions lowball items severely. I also find that I get sales primarily from plate number coils and complete sets of coils of new issues (for example the recent flowers low denomination flower coils), and offering grab bags of stamps since 2000 that include commemorative, definitive, and some back-of-book stamps. You can earn a little profit from selling these grab bags.

Those who benefit most will always be those collectors who purchase stamps without seeking primarily investment return and do their research.

If a downturn persists for a year or more, the main loser would be USPS which will likely protect itself by cutting production. Watch for a drop in the production of each issue and even the number of issues annually. Recall they cut the amount of 2020 yearbooks to 13,000 due to reduce use and demand of some stamp products due to the Covid-19 epidemic (although by 2021 many found on the online community a renewed or new interest in philately as channels cropped up educating people about philately with the extra time on everyone's hands due to quarantines).

"These events are going to speed this up .....not magic in one year .......but the lost of the "old guard " ,lack of sales on the internet , financial crisis both equities and falling interest rates, plus overseas customers reducing buying in our market are all factors ---- In speeding up this lowering of bidding at stamp auction houses ,that is what I posted ."

Yes, the tariffs and the stock market decline will have a negative effect on stamp auctions, But we may not see further falling of interest rates as there will be inflation from the tariffs.

What you posted included "This period of 2024/2025 is going to be turning or pivot time where the old guard fades away and new styles start to show up ", which is what was refuting.

What rodgcam said. We are in uncharted waters. Falling interest rates drive up bond prices, and lower costs of capital eventually drive up the stock market. The market sell-off is due to the uncertainty of Trump's tariff policies. The magnitude of the sell-off is exaggerated by the market being overvalued. Floortrader knows the philatelic market as well as anyone; his view may hold short-term. Trump's love for tariffs is risky, but bold. If it pays off, it would fundamentally alter the monetary/fiscal world order long-term.

Jerome Powell spoke yesterday and signaled an interest rate decrease based upon hard not soft economic data. The "sky is falling" narrative is at least right now not backed up by hard data.

The problem is the chaos. On again, off again. The possibility of my old agency's data releases ( I was at BLS for 15 years, 10 of which as a Senior Supervisory Economist ) soon to be originating from the White House rather than BLS is very concerning.

Most immediately worrying to me is the sentiment the new Canadian Prime Minister related this week. His remarks that the post war period of American international and economic leadership is over horribly rings true. America intent to pull back in such a drastic way world wide, just allows China to gladly fill the vacuum.

Currently if you want to see the effect on the ground concerning the stamp market, forget eBay, and watch Whatnot. I had been buying heavily, especially post cards, because nobody cares about the Philatelic aspect, and most of the sellers have not a clue. I have been surprised to see many sellers offering stamps and covers, as well as the post cards. There currently is a college kid selling a huge lot of US Stampless covers by the piece with no knowledge of the Philatelic aspect at all, a few Canadian dealers moving off eBay to Whatnot, and a lot of discount postage. If you have the patience to wade through a number of the sellers near zero knowledge of philately, opportunities abound.

I am waiting for the next Vin Fiz card to surface there...

To be fair, it's been over significantly longer than since January 20, 2025...

It has been different, but it was hardly "over ". But it sure is now. As far as prices go, I hope that no one thinks that quality material is suddenly going to be cheaper. Average material might drop off some, but the good stuff will still be expensive. Anyone who thinks differently should think about the Arthur Hind sale. In 1934, during the worst depression, his material brought record prices. The good stuff always sells well.

Logically, if inflation rises and economies suffer downturns, purchases of fripperies by most of us will contract - this isn't the Covid scenario where people stuck at home indulged their leisure interests. As to how long the US will maintain its tariff stance, that could well be for the medium-term at least. It will likely be politically and economically impossible for the EU to accept a unilateral reneging on international trade commitments and the imposition of unjustified tariffs.