Scott #80 Sold For $340,000 + 18% Yesterday

Yes Rev, they would have been mine.

I think some people are operating under a misapprehension here. Which is that because there are a number of "big ticket" items that dealers ignore or forger the "small ticket" items. I assure you they do not. Dealers look at EVERYTHING that is in any way a part of their usual inventory. 99% of the time when a dealer does not bid it's because he can't use the item. He has no customers, or it's too hard to sell, or it is cost prohibitive to a decent profit. A lack of funds is unlikely to be an issue to any dealer bidding in a sale such as this one. Everyone of importance looked at these blocks and either came up with a number or decided not to bid. They did not sell at those prices because two dozen dealers fell asleep.

revc, I completely agree with this. Would you also agree that the buyers have already pretty much figured out which lots they will bid on ahead of time? Also, as you pointed out, some lower level items, like my 98, might not be of much appeal to a large dealer. So it's not on a lot of their priority lists. Same for the blocks. The dealers know how difficult a market that is, so they don't bid on them. This gives us collectors, sometimes, rarely, an opportunity to get in on a nice stamp. At an auction like this you also clearly get specialists and large dealers. I really enjoy these auctions in general, even though I'm small potatoes.

It seems as if there is some over analyzing going on here. Those particular blocks that went for ten percent or less were a good deal for someone. Someone, not everyone. Ten percent of cv for a block of of which there are only two recorded Siegel sales or less than ten known etc. is a steal. At some point there is a good chance that the one of two or one of ten will become the only one and that will make the current cv and sale price look like the bargain of a lifetime. History does repeat itself and these types of items are scarce and will only become scarcer. Over and out. Carry on.

If only it actually worked like that. There is a much better chance that they will all be broken up at some point and sold as singles. As four singles they will certainly bring a profit, assuming a dealer bought them. And don't bother to accuse me of giving anyone any ideas, people had that idea long before I ever did. These will never be considered "the bargain of a lifetime" to anyone as a block. A nice buy, yes. Unless you think all the dealers were either stupid or drunk when they were offered.

Think about it this way. The average APS show has 120 dealers. At least 20% of them must have paid close attention to this sale. Perhaps one of them won, but none of them outbid the winner. Do you really think that is a coincidence? Or that they all "fell asleep"? Or that they all were so overawed by other lots that they had a momentary amnesia?

Rev - You make my point. It is probable that the blocks will eventually all be broken up. Except for the savvy owner that bough the ones that are not broken up, that has the discipline to wait and to leave them be. Because at some point there is a good chance that person will own the only remaining blocks and that my friend is gold. As far as what dealers might or might not do or think or not think it is irrelevant. The prices were excellent for those last remaining blocks and my humble opinion is that it will turn out to have been an amazing buying opportunity for the right person. At the end though we are both hypothesizing. As to who is right only time will tell.

I am not hypothesizing. I see the market every day, and discuss it with major buyers all the time. Although many will continue to collect, the number of people with both the money and interest in important and rare blocks has shrunk, is still shrinking, and will continue to do so. These blocks will not be significantly more "gold" in the future then they are now. Even rare singles do not bring the big money unless the condition is there.

Good to know with certainty what the future holds.

In certain cases the future has been happening for several years already. Alas, mint and used blocks is one of them. I have seen a number of very nice collections not bring anywhere near a % of what they might have 15 or 20 years ago, let alone earlier. The collectors simply aren't there. So unless there is a major sudden shift in that direction it will not change.

Too late now but I would have taken a chance on the blocks. At the price they went for there is no way I could lose anywhere near what I have lost betting on the market. That is unless the cv dropped drastically or people were only willing to pay 3-5 % of cv. Not bloody likely.

One brought 10% and one brought 8.5%. That really is the market at this point for what they are in the condition they are in. If they are worth more to you that's fine. You should have bid. But you having a higher personal interest does not mean that the market in general does. Or that someone got a steal. All of us have items we will pay over market for, that does not mean the market is incorrect.

Revcollector, You clearly have a lot of relevant experience. What percentage of bidders in this auction would you think were dealers vs collectors?

Impossible to know nowadays. In the pre PC days, everyone would show up so it was easy to know. Today with agents, the phone, and the net, there is no real way to know how many people bid or who they were. Only the auction house knows, and they certainly aren't telling.

I don't collect this sort of material, but what I will weigh in on, is that I tend to agree with rogdcam. There is often a herd mentality that steers folks towards what's hot, versus what will be hot. I'm not shocked 20 dealers in a room all think the same. Its the lifetime of behavioral conditioning that causes them to all come to the same conclusions. I too believe at these prices there are some good long plays toward big rarity rewards and deals are definitely to be had.

Patience is a long play.