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Does Grading Matter???

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Posted 07/01/2017   5:11 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add cjpalermo1964 to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I am aware of at least one dealer whom--as best I can tell--regularly buys good-quality collections with XF stamps, obtains PSE grading, then offers the stamps with PSE graded certs at a massive premium. The practice is making non-graded, moderate-premium-over-cat XF stamps harder to find. I am guessing that eventually it will force me out of the market for XF stamps, as fewer non-graded become available. I look forward to the burst of the bubble.
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Posted 07/01/2017   8:25 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add angore to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
If the market is working correctly, the prices do not need to go up unless there is a market for graded stamps.

Example, most graded stamps are usually the higher grades yet they have prices for every and every stamp until the modern period. Where is that sales data.

Scott has a similar matrix in their specialized catalog. I wonder where their data comes from....it is all approximations off a base.
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Al
Edited by angore - 07/02/2017 06:16 am
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Posted 07/02/2017   09:34 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add srailkb to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
cjpalermo1964, I thought the "graded XF" bubble already burst. Real world prices & demand are way down vs. 5-10 years ago... Whether prices will continue downward, who knows? But XF-90's are probably already 50-70% below their peak, and in certain areas, they're down more than 70%.
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Posted 07/02/2017   09:47 am  Show Profile Check revenuecollector's eBay Listings Bookmark this reply Add revenuecollector to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I think the bubble on graded modern stamps has long burst (it was a fad to begin with IMO), but on classics demand (and prices) are still strong.
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Edited by revenuecollector - 07/02/2017 09:47 am
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Posted 07/02/2017   09:54 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add srailkb to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
For top of the census classics, the market is still pretty good. For XF-90 stuff, not so much. Review selling prices for graded 90 or 90J used Scott 7's and 9's if you're looking for some examples. Prices for those are certainly down 50%-75% vs. 10 years ago... I know, as I've probably handled >100 of them.
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Posted 07/02/2017   11:27 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add cjpalermo1964 to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Ken, thank you. My buying range these days is various items between Scott 13 to 315, XF, non graded. I don't want to pay the graded cert "tax". If people think pricing in this segment has not been negatively affected by stamps getting graded certs, that is good to know.
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Posted 07/02/2017   12:31 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add srailkb to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
cjpalermo1964, regarding paying the "graded tax", my only caution is that because of the pricing differential between graded XF+ and ungraded XF+ stamps over the last decade or more, I'd be skeptical of any ungraded item that should grade 90+ (and "very" sketpical of anything that should grade 95+). Those ungraded gems are still out there, but in general, those that "could" have been graded were graded (because they were immediately worth 2x-10x more). I have no way of knowing how good you are at detecting hidden faults and excellent repairs, but I'd suggest you send a couple of your ungraded gems off for a cert (graded or not) just to make sure you're not getting duped.

Unless there's a good story as to why an XF or better stamp has not been graded (or only has an "old" cert), my advice would be to assume that it has some sort of problem. If only I had a dollar for every collector who told me about the steals they got buying ungraded/uncertified gems at bourses, at auction, or on eBay, but actually had an album full of faulty, altered and misidentified material that was only worth a small fraction of what they spent... Caveat emptor!
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