XF Classics - How Many Are Left Ungraded?

Yes exactly. I'm brand new to this board; are these sorts of comments typical in threads? I'm perplexed.

Just embrace the spirit of Tristram Shandy.

Kevin504: it was a riff on outsourcing, right?

ikey: you won't be riffing when my outsourced disturbed gum arrives in Noo Yawk.

Geoff

Grading saturation hasn't come close with stamps yet (unlike many US coins) so there's still plenty of ungraded stuff out there.

There's a few caveats that I can think of...

Whether or not you agree with grading, always buy the stamp and not the graded cert. I have seen plenty of highly graded stamps that I didn't like; not that they were overgraded per se but I personally didn't want to buy them.

Valuable US Classics are scarce in fault free XF condition. Graded or not I wouldn't buy without a cert or an extension to get a cert. You've also got a fair number of misidentified stamps out there, and it's a LOT rarer to see a 24c 1861 Steel Blue sold as a Lilac than a Lilac sold as a Pale Grey Violet.

I've also found that dealers who have the biggest and loudest complaints against grading tend to overgrade their ungraded stamps (VF sold as XF, F sold as VF, etc).

Nick777vvv, welcome to the US forum! There is a lot of discussion here about stamp values and prices and such. In my humble opinion, catalog values and even records of auction or dealer sales for a given stamp# are secondary to my gut attraction to a stamp. Some of my favorite stamps in my collection would get no better than fair reviews if expertized. For myself, appreciation of a stamp's beauty is not tied to the market value (although, obviously if it is a rare stamp that makes it more exciting).

It sounds like you want high quality (emphasis on centering) unused stamps. I think you can find plenty of US Classics, especially on sites like ebay, that would meet your criteria and have not been graded or otherwise snatched up by professional dealers/auction houses. If you want to limit yourself to those with original gum and no gum faults, the selection will be much more sparse. But, if you are willing to accept "minor faults" like small gum issues, etc, then you will have plenty to search for.

I'd recommend knowing the types that get faked (http://www.stampsmarter.com/1847usa/index.htm is a great resource), especially Washington Franklins. If you avoid stamps with certificates, I think the major issues you will run into will be:
1. Gum faults not clearly shown or described
2. Incorrect color identification (e.g. calling a #65 Rose stamp a #64 Pink stamp)
3. Incorrect grade identification (e.g. calling it mint when it is just unused, or Fine centering when it is just AVG centering)
4. Reperforated stamps

Hope that helps. Please keep asking your questions!

Thank you billw2 and lukusw; both very useful posts. Lots for me to get stuck into.

One last question I have (for now!). Do you think this whole grading thing is becoming more popular with the graded stock rising more quickly in price than ungraded? Or is it more of a trend that has plateaued (or even declined)?

I know that grading gets a lot of scorn on Stampboards but that's probably because most of the contributors aren't collecting US stamps. Be good to get an informed view from those closer to the market.

nick777vvv,
I think graded stamps will continue to appreciate for a while but this trend is probably due to the number of folks who are willing to buy into the idea of graded stamps. Keep in mind that the general marketplace may go downward in the same time period, how this impacts graded stamps is open for debate. A few other considerations…

Grading can be tricky, as others have mentioned. I see a lot of subjectivity in graded stamps on ebay, many listings don't mention which grading standard they are using (and some sellers come up with their own grading definitions). Standardization of a grading standard might help the marketplace in the long run, it remains to be seen if this will happen.

Grading, like condition, can change over the years depending on the storage and handling of the stamp (especially mint stamps). One attempt at a solution for this was to encase the stamp. But it appears that many in the marketplace shun graded, encased stamps. For stamps that are not encased, how long does a grading opinion last? 10 years? 25 years? 50 years? 100 years? Obviously the storage environment and handling can greatly impact this. So grading firms had an incentive to minimize the effects of storage and handling, they want the value-added service they are charging for to 'last' longer than a few years.

When strictly speaking of investing, investing in graded stamps means that you are not simply investing in the actual stamp, you are also taking on the risk/return of the value-added grading service and its longevity.
Don

Nick,

If history is any predictor of the future.......

I think that you're going to see an increasing gap between lower grade and faulty material and truly high grade items. The higher the grade the better the appreciation.

Grading gets a lot of scorn on that board but bear in mind that the extreme vast majority of those ripping into grading don't collect USA and also have a huge beef with what's at best 1-2% of the graded stamp market.

On the subject of how long a grading opinion lasts, I purchased a stamp that was advertised as MNH with a certificate. The certificate was about 20 years old and indeed showed the stamp as MNH. However, assuming the original cert was accurate, apparently at some point during the 20 year period, someone got the bright idea of mounting it with a hinge, which of course rendered the opinion of the cert that it was MNH useless. No harm done, as I settled the issue with the seller, who had also misrepresented the condition (although maybe he did not bother to check the back, given what the cert stated.) That type of event can happen at any time after a cert has been issued, but the older the cert the more opportunity has been available for the stamp condition to diverge from the state at the time the cert was issued.

I have also seen stamps advertised as having certificates accompanying them, giving the impression that one could buy the stamps with confidence, but the sellers failed to advertise that the certs themselves noted faults with the stamp. Insist on seeing a scan of the certificate as well as the stamp.