Question For Big Blue Experts

The "filling spaces" blog definitely reports on the selling prices of larger collections of Big Blue.

As far as "tips", looks like you have come up with a good one for estimating the number of stamps in a BB album. That, of course, assumes the collector accumulates the stamps in a common way, and does not have particular interests in countries that are different from the usual bell shaped curve of WW collecting.

"bell shaped curve of WW collecting " ??????

O.k., I was typing at a rest stop in central Oregon, and I wasn't very clear.

My point is, if one examines enough Previous owners BB's, there is a distribution of stamps for each country that is common.

In other words common stamps occur commonly in them. And, one sees the evidence of the packet trade also- the "Calib Archer" stamps from French Guiana that are overprinted "territoire de L'inni", for instance.

From statistics, one would say the collection falls in the middle of the bell shaped curve.

Finding a shortcut to estimating the number of stamps in a Scott International Volume One is something that intrigues me, too. There seem to me to be two basic approaches: 1) as KRelyea suggests, count the stamps in a range of the alphabet that constitutes an easy to work with percentage and estimate the total from that; or 2) count the number of stamps on randomly sampled pages and use that to estimate the total.

I first tried the "A-B" method with my own album and counted 3160 stamps in that range. The A-B (plus Cochin China) countries constitute 155 pages or 11.8% of the 1312 pages in my album. Based on these numbers, this estimates that the total number of stamps in my album should be around 26,780 stamps. But alas, I only have about 21,300 stamps so the estimate is off by 20%.

I then tried a random sample approach. Assuming I understand the process, for a 1312 page Blue Volume One, one needs to count the stamps on 89 random pages to get a number that can be used to estimate the total accurate to plus or minus 10 percent (95% confidence level). Incredibly, when I tried this on my Blue, the sample gave an estimated total count of 21,574, within a couple hundred of the actual album count.

The problem with the sampling method is that ideally you need to have an album with the pages numbered, something that most collectors won't have bothered with. And, in spite of my luck with my initial sample, to get a more acceptable plus or minus five percent estimate would require counting stamps on 297 pages. Better I suppose than counting all 1312 pages, but still, a lot of work.

It might be possible to improve the accuracy of the "A-B" method by finding a range that better represents the Blue. That is (following up on Jkjblue's comment), in the A-B range you have several countries that typically are well represented in even small collections (e.g., Austria, Baden, Belgium) and not many countries that are more elusive (e.g., the Italian colonies). So most collectors' A-B count might typically be high and thus unrepresentative of the album as a whole.

And, I think often BB collectors work on "filling" the earlier part of the album more than the later part. For myself, I have paid more attention to Aden and Allenstein than Upper Senegal and Niger, or Zululand.

I agree. I bought perhaps a half-a-dozen BB albums to add to my own. I believe three were A-Z, but two were A-J, and one (with 8000 stamps!) was A-D. That was my best purchase. But all of this means that I probably have a couple of thousand more A-J stamps than J-Z. I'm slowly redressing the imbalance. Can't play favorites with our children. Well, come to think of it, we're stamp collectors. Everyone knows we are a little crazy so we might as well do what we want.

Jim

Not entirely sure about that. I collect to the Ideal, rather than Scott, but a purchase, say, of French Colonies will make inroads into each of the three volumes. I have just completed the Ideal Algeria pages though!

Your blog is endlessly informative, and generous spirited, by the way. Thank you.

Geoff

I checked my BB A-B countries count, and then my total count.

Total count (includes U.S. in BB) was 7.5X the A-B countries count.

Assuming I'm accumulating stamps for countries in a random unbiased manner (a huge assumption ), multiplying by 7.5X might give a better estimate.

Bob, using your 3160 count for A-B countries yields an estimate of 23,700 stamps for your album, off by (only) 10%.

Thanks Geoff

As said, for myself, I have focused more on the earlier alphabet countries than the later ones. But, true, it may not apply as a universal rule.

JkBlue and 1840-1940 great breakdowns!

Here's the breakdown I have

Part 1A A-Hungary 8,535
Part IB Iceland-Z 8,123 Surprisingly close to A-H

Part IIA A-Hungary 5,033
Part IIB Iceland-Z 3,490 (not as close)

I think in albums in general there will be more A-H than I-Z just because A-H has the popular countries in there.

Thanks for the input and ideas. When I need to count an collection fast and an approximate number is OK I do a page by page estimate. I write down numbers as shown below;

5
10
15
20
25

Usually I go to 60 with my list and then go thru page by page and guessimate the number of stamps on each page and make a mark on my list for each page;

5 IIII
10 IIII IIII IIII
15 II
20 IIII IIII II

etc.

I convert to numbers;

5 * 4 =20
10 * 14 =140
15 * 2= 30
20 * 12 = 240

Add them up and I'm done. I can do this pretty fast.

Did anyone notice Siegel Auction 1098 Lot 925? It was a Big Blue in four volumes estimated at $2000-$3000 and sold for $17,000! I wish I could have seen that one!

Yes, and lot 923 with a similar estimate brought $14K, although we are left to wonder what the "eleven large Scott albums" were. Vintage Reproductions' version of the Browns, perhaps?

I'm becoming intrigued with your method. I wonder if there would be any gain in accuracy to increase the number of pages counted from every 5 to every 10-15. I "worry" that too small an increment might overemphasize countries like Germany.

I think you misunderstood my post. I look at every page, but I scan it and put a tick mark next to the number of stamps I think are on that page. If I estimate low on a page I'll probably estimate high on another and it will balance out.

PS. I like counting albums because I get to look at a lot of stamps.

Ken

KRelyea, I did misunderstand. Thanks for clarifying.




Absolutely. The downside is that I get easily distracted during the counting (look, a squirrel).