How Are Stamp "Catalog" Values Established?

If I was concern with supply and demand of stamps ,I would keep spread sheets or have a computer program that kept the following .
What is selling thru the APS Sales Department ,what sales books sell at a high percentage of their content,also what books are requested and unable to get .
I would track 5 or 6 major firms stamp auction catalogs over a year or more and see what sells and what goes over estimates , that will give you a picture of major buyers ,it will cost a few hundred to get those catalogs if you don't have a account with them.
I would follow buyers in the philatelic press like Dr. BOB and see his sales price list because he knows wholesale prices better than most .
ebay is fine to see how complete auctions are going for low end material and the demands of the nickel and dime buyers .



There, that is what I mean of knowing SUPPLY and DEMAND for a comprehensive review

I am amused by so many people insisting upon framing valuation as absolutes.

[Clarification: the following are paraphrasing sentiments, not necessarily quotes.]

" ebay is the real value, not Scott"

"anyone who pays more than X% of Scott is... "

"daring to list above 60% of Scott..."

etc.

ANY catalog, no matter where the data is based upon, will be wrong 90% of the time, even one based on completed ebay results.

Why?

Pick a stamp. Any stamp. No matter what stamp it is, there will be results ranging from 5% to 500% of any "catalog value", depending on condition and usage. Trying to pigeonhole values and declare them as absolute maximums or "truths" is an exercise in futility.

It. Won't. Work.

Even if you could scrape completed ebay results, the value of the data is useless without context. Using the ebay API to get that data only gives you the title of the listing. Someone would have to MANUALLY go through and determine what the grade of the actual stamps were, their faults, their usages, multiples, on-cover, etc. Add to that the fact that ebay now obfuscates the actual selling price of completed best offer sales and there is no way to get accurate data.

The fact of the matter is that depending on what you collect, and/or the level of your collecting, at some point the catalog value goes by the wayside. Anyone who insists upon maxims such as "won't pay more than 25% of Scott" will never have a truly superb collection. Period. If you never stretch, you will never obtain truly exemplary items.

How do you think catalog values go up? Because someone (or many someones) are paying MORE than the current catalog values.

Lest anyone think I'm making judgments regarding people's abilities to purchase/spend, I am not. Being unable to afford better items is a different animal. I'm talking about those who make arbitrary across-the-board generalizations about value... which are almost always WRONG.

Regarding the notion of popularity vs. scarcity, given that both affect valuation, Bart is absolutely correct. From a previous post of mine:

That my friends is the scariest statement I have ever heard..You think letting people on ebay dictate the rarity/value of stamps is gospel..That is letting people (guys selling stamps to make a buck), not to help stamp collectors or the hobby dictate stamp values..???
Well, not to sound ignorant, BUT that is so ridiculous...sorry, my personal opinion...

Robert

Who said " ebay is the real value, not Scott?"

I've searched every page of this thread, and cannot find anybody who said that? Are we attacking straw men now?

I edited my previous post to reflect that those lines were intended to paraphrase sentiments expressed here, not be direct quotes.

Ok...My mistake..I take it back, must have been reading it the wrong way..I apologize.

Robert

No need to apologize. I was unclear in my initial presentation.

Hi Geoff,
Which came first: The chicken or the egg? Stamps or catalogs? That's easy. But, you're missing the big picture.

So, take a catalog for a given stamp area -- no names given -- no country implied; the GRAKK(™)©2015 catalog is a vertical operation of BIG$$$-STAMP(™)©; a stamp dealer/publisher of a COUNTRY & POSSESSIONS CATALOG for GRAKK(™)©2015, her 9 SISTER PLANETS, MOONS and related ASTEROIDS – GRAKK© catalog known as a 'market leader. The creed of all stamp dealers is "Buy low-Sell High." The GRAKK(™)© STAMP catalog is designed entice sellers and lure buyers to BIG$$$-STAMP(™)©. Buyers are motivated to buy by "PAIN, FEAR, ENVY, GREED, LUST and SLOTH."

THE CYCLE GOES: I'm a collector (LUST) and I have a space in my album (LUST)… I need to fill that space (LUST), complete that issue (LUST), and my collection (ENVY of others) will be worth more money (GREED). If I don't do it now (FEAR), the stamp will be gone (PAIN) and my collection (ENVY) will not be as valuable (GREED). It stamp (LUST) is overpriced (PAIN) but I've been looking for a long time (LUST). I'll buy (PAIN) it now because it's in front of me (SLOTH).

Within the pages of the GRAKK STAMP(™)© catalog I have listed (for this argument), 100,000+ listings. As an entrepreneur, I (BIG$$$-STAMP(™)©) look at the 100,000 listings and say what should these items be priced at, setting the highest price possible, to make the most money. (Remember, the catalog is a benchmark for buying (LOW) and the asking price for selling (HIGH). I can always negotiate back; I can never negotiate forward. I don't care if customers complain about the price in the GRAKK(™)©2015 catalog. I peg the most recognizable items "at market price ++", stating it's for "premium quality" merchandise. I know collectors will complain, however, they will be the first to bring me their best stamps when they want to sell! Collectors' are willing to pay a premium price to buy the premium stamps.

Let's say my BIG$$$-STAMP(™)© retail operation sells 1,000,000 average, non-premium stamps per year worldwide. Lets say my average stamp-sale-per-item is $1 or 1 EURO per year. I want to make more money. What's the easiest way to do it? I raise my GRAKK©catalog prices 10% across each stamp, I automatically increase my $$ or EURO SALE by 100,000+/yr. without doing a thing. And when new issue comes out; I can set any price I want to. WHY? I have a card up my sleeve.

Before I tell you what the card is…as a "publisher" and "sales company", I am also going to print a "GRAKK(™)©2015 Stamp Album" for collectors to place their stamp purchases into, with New Issue release pages yearly. I will control what I print on the pages, based on what I want to stock and sell and what is available to me from various New Stamp Distribution sources. I know stamp collectors are going to buy from me, no matter, what, because I rely on a collectors' motivation to buy … their base psychological desires of: PAIN, FEAR, ENVY, GREED, LUST AND SLOTH. Now here's my card…

I have a third company--a distribution company. This third company holds solo stamp distribution rights for new issues for every island nation and sand drenched-land, locked principality within my GRAKK©-catalog's specialty domain. I set opening "new list prices" for everyone out there -- to all dealers. So a stamp that costs $0.0125 each to produce, I sell at, let's say, $0.25 for a low value and $5.00 for a hi-value. Stamp Dealers are going to sell at my established "Suggested List Price." WHY? Because Dealers are also motivated by "PAIN, FEAR, ENVY, GREED, LUST and SLOTH."

Do I really care what individual line-list prices are in my catalog? Do catalog prices really reflect actual market price? One word: No.

Do catalogues "trade" or "lift" information? One word: No. These people are rivals vying for the collectors' catalog-$$$. Have you ever found a bad line listing (not price, Individual stamp issue information) in an obscure section of county or principality listing? Have you ever tried to get it corrected in a catalog? The answer is it will never be corrected. WHY? It's decoy information placed there to prevent copyright infringement.

As to your other questions:

Each catalog does its own thing; that's why you have each catalog assigning a Catalog # and copyrighting the information. Each leads their own area. And today, it would be almost impossible to launch a new catalog with a different #-set; collectors would never accept it. So existing Catalogs feel pretty secure in their space.However, there isn't a single publisher that wouldn't want to eliminate their paper catalogue for a digital one. The cost of a printed page to a digital page is mind-blowing. The cost to manage to update the database yearly, with new information and new images, is another headache.

Like London's Harrods(™), Dunhills(™), et al, SG(™) has always had a "high-end material" selection and trade – that's how they built their excellent reputation.

I hope that helps.

Hal



GRAKK STAMP(™)© and BIG$$$-STAMP(™)© ; ©2015Hal Klein, P.O. Box 750, Lebanon, Pa.17042-0750

REVENUECOLLECTOR --

Excellent observations! Great job.

Hal

BTW revenuecollector...I really like your web site..Great job.

Robert

Goodness knows about Scott, but yes: I have got Gibbons to alter their listings of Barwani (obscure enough for you?) Not just once, but twice indeed.

And I'd take issue with the general tenor of your remarks, too. If any catalogue publisher is foolish enough to release a list of prices, what is the first reaction of the rest of the dealing community? Undercut those prices, and undercut the prices sufficiently to sell stamps. After all, if the dealers don't sell, they go to the wall.

Catalogue prices are all very fine and large. They give a general indication of scarcity. But what sane and sensible collector (which excludes any collector who works on a fixed percentage of catalogue) regards catalogue prices as more than an indication?

A "paraphrase" is not an invention - it is a summary, or a statement articulated in a different way but with the same meaning. So the " ebay defining value" thing is an invention - and as near as I can tell without going back through all of this - was the idea that "one should never pay more than 24% Scott."

What was said - by me and perhaps others - was that sellers expecting 90% - 100% Scott on a sale are nuts.

... which unfortunately is as bogus as the day is long.

Items (not just stamps) sell for multiples of industry catalog values every day, for any number of reasons. That does not make purveyors of those goods "nuts".

There is a MAJOR difference in stamp collectors.
On one end of the board.....
Some just fill spaces in a album....
On the other end.....
Some look for the BEST example out there....

MAJOR DIFFERENCE!!

The only thing that catalog value tells me is whether a stamp is low dollar, medium dollar, high dollar or stratospheric. Beyond that, I look to auction listing prices, auction realizations, and dealer prices from multiple different dealer models (those who go to shows, those who have brick and mortar retail, those who have price lists with no photos, or with, etc.). That's the true market to me.

Who appointed the catalog editors as deans of the market? No one. They express an opinion, period. What fools we would be if we let catalog value dictate what we pay.