What's Happening With German Stamps?

I re listed the Germany 1990-1997 lot starting at $9.99. That is what it went for today, only two watchers. I'd have done better donating it for a tax credit. List prices on the same material as singles and sets from dealers totaled over $150. Horrible.

The German area has been touted as a 'can't miss' collecting area over the years. Well I guess that is an urban legend. I am still keeping my hand in on the stamp game, with my International and a few other collections but I no longer have any illusions about getting anything near my money back when I sell. It's part of why I have been shifting my collecting interests over to coins lately. I can share that hobby with my teenaged son and feel I might be leaving him a collection he will find of some value, cannot say that about stamps any longer.

Very discouraging.

I've only been actively and seriously collecting Germany for a couple years or so, so I'm not qualified to comment on long term trends. However, older German material seems to do better than modern material, with some areas (colonies and foreign offices come to mind) regularly selling for close to full CV. There's just so much of the modern mint material to go around, and I don't think the market is on fire for modern mint material in any country. Most serious collectors already have those issues or never cared about them to begin with.

If the mint stamps in question are still valid for postage, they'll still probably bring close enough to face value in most cases, but the change to the Euro means the stamps in your lot no longer have any intrinsic value as postage, only as collectibles. Similarly, if the US suddenly demonetized all denominated (i.e. non-forever) stamps, for example, the real-world value of a common 20-cent mint stamp would probably plummet from 15-20 cents to maybe a couple cents. It would be a case of a glut of supply meeting a limited demand, putting massive downward pressure on prices. I suspect that's a big part of what's going on with weak prices for modern mint German stamps denominated in Deutsche Marks.

The Scott 670-685 set is another example I've noticed recently. You see asking prices consistently over 1,000 bucks for MNH yet the same sets are seemingly on offer indefinitely and never actually selling. Not to mention, this set is hardly rare. There may be as many as 10 sets on ebay for sale and you see it on many other sites and price lists.

Very over-catalogued.

One hesitates to say the market for this area is rigged, but it does at least seem there is a great disparity between catalog and also advertised price levels and reality. German material is hardly alone in this regard. The market for PRC China has long been like this- even CTO sets listing at stratospheric prices but with little interest if you try to sell some.
I currently have six better early DDR sets listed at Buy It Now prices since Sunday. Not one watcher yet, several lookers but they just apparently move on. Something is terribly wrong when someone collecting in a supposedly popular area with a nearly complete collection has to think about just giving it away for a tax write off to get rid of it and get anything out of it.

My experience with buy-it-now is that you have to be patient. Even though overall worldwide demand for a specific item might be relatively high, the number of people looking specifically for that item on ebay USA on any given day or week is pretty small. My experience with BIN stamps is that they'll usually take weeks to months to sell, even if priced correctly. I wouldn't get too worried about it if you've had them up for a few days with not much interest yet.

My little adventure with German stamps on ebay ended, I had two unsold lots, both hinged sets, DDR 80-1 listed at just $6.50, and 85-88 at 8.50. I got an alert they'd run out and a suggested relisting price of .99 on each! I sold the other four at 'Best Offer' got low-balled on each, took offers of about 40% of my original list price just to get rid of them.
What got to me was after researching the history of sales on these sets during the period I'd listed them I saw other similar- yes, hinged- sets that went for more. Somebody sold a near complete collection of DDR in three separate lots- from 1949 to 1969 all in a ratty looking Schaubek album, the seller got over $300 for them. There seems no pattern to any of this.
I never would have collected this area if I'd had any idea this would happen. Maybe best to put them aside until the market shifts. Right now it's a waste of time and listing fees.

Back in the mid 1990's, Al Jaeger, who was then President of the Germany Philatelic Society, told several of us at a GPS chapter meeting that he had donated several of his specialized Germany collections to charity for a tax write off. At the time, I thought this was a little strange. Al was an astute businessman who kept records of all his stamp purchases. Undoubtedly, his thinking on this was "straight on."

Part of the problem with buying and selling German stamps on ebay is the ebay category itself. "Germany and Colonies" is impossibly broad, encompassing everything from classic German States to Occupation issues, DDR, Danzig, Saar, up to modern issues released yesterday. It usually contains around 130-140,000 listings at any given time. Trying to search for a specific stamp by catalog number pops up so much unrelated material that you have to scroll endlessly through meaningless results and/or exclude a very long string of terms.

The upshot of this is that I find it's just easier to bookmark certain sellers who frequently sell the kind of material I'm looking for. I tend to keep an eye on those sellers' new listings frequently and only occasionally do I use search results. Unfortunately if you're not one of the sellers I keep an eye on, the chances of me seeing your auction is minimal. I doubt I'm the only one like that, and it's a big reason why newer sellers can have an uphill climb in getting good prices on their ebay auctions. If I see an auction for a better item being run by a low-feedback (number, not percentage) seller, I take notice because I know there's a good chance I'll get the item for a much better price than auctions from my usual sellers. There have even been a few times where I felt sorry for the seller, the price was so low.

ebay Germany subdivides Germany into scores of sub-categories, and finding what you want there is a piece of cake. I buy from German sellers sometimes and the stamps are always top-notch. Just don't have them shipped registered mail (that's another topic).

I never expected to make money on stamp collecting, I guess I thought there'd be some salvageable value in the end, the difference would cover the fun I'd had. The reality I find now is just ridiculous.

I see all the ads in Linn's weekly from dealers in this area- selling this material at inflated values. That's their right, I guess. But the whole thing just feels like a gigantic scam. You live and you learn, and right now what I've learned would lead me to advise newbies to steer clear from this area. Just my opinion.

I have a somewhat similar experience. I acquired a BDR collection, including a mint sc 685. I had estimated the collections total value and were sure I did a bargain.. The thing is I purchased this when I were at work offshore, and out here I only have a 20 year old AFA catalog for reference. When I arrived home, the BRD collection had already arrived and I started to add them into my album - but now I was referring to a much more recent catalog. And guess what - the catalog value for no 685 had not increased as I had expected for the last 20 years, it had dropped. In that respect at least the AFA catalog seems to have been reflecting the market trend you are pointing at, much so to my displeasure as the supposedly 'bargain' ended up at 'normal' price.

This is an important lesson that needs to be highlighted - deciding on a price based off an old catalogue is bad for the wallet - for all collectables! One cannot take for granted the effect ebay, et al, has had on market prices over the past 20 years, and I fear the drop may not be over.

Buyer beware!

Brian

Brian - I think you are right. I believe we will within the next 10-20 years see the interest for stamps - and the market - decline. It's already started on German stamps, more will follow. Guess it's good for the one of us that don't care too much about the value, but are rather generally interested in the collection-obsession part of it! Which I normally am So a part of me is hoping the market will drop, making more of the now un-affordable stamps within reach - and yet at the same time it's obviously not a good thing for the hobby.

I have to say that as far as my DDR or Bund material I've been getting quite a lot of it in kiloware mixtures. I have a VERY big amount from a giant box of kilo I bought back in college so....12 or so years ago now. Perhaps there's a market glut from people a few years ago offloading at around the same time?

Germany has a large network of charities that save used stamps on mail and German commemoratives seem to see a good amount of use even by the non-collecting public. As a result, German kilware is as cheap and plentiful as any there is. I have little doubt that if one wanted to buy an entire ton (2000 lb) of German stamps on paper, they could do so without all that much difficulty or even disrupting supplies of it all that much.

At prices of $10-$15 per pound, I've bought enough of it in the past couple years that I've literally been giving away modern used German stamps. There are some issues that are a little scarcer in postally used condition (certain semi-postals, and higher-values) but most of them are so common that catalog values are entirely meaningless. There are some issues that Scott values at over $2 that I literally have hundreds of. Of course, these aren't worth $2. They're worth the 2 or 3 cents that I get for them when I put them in a packet and sell them that way.

Long story short, whether we're talking used or mint stamps, there is a glut of supply of modern German material. Stamp collecting has always been hugely popular there (much more so than in the US) which has resulted in huge amounts of material being saved over the years. Any reduction in demand will make the abundance of supply more glaring.

I routinely purchase 1 lb. off-paper Bundespost mixtures for approx. $15 from German sellers. The catalog value of the stamps is hundreds of Euros, but of course real world value is $15. I've been able to complete my used Germany collection from 1955 to 1995 for around $50 (I've purchased the earlier stamps individually).