Dynamic Stamps Markets

Chinese stamps market is very dynamic. The values of the stamps are constantly changing and there are a lot of deals with them every days.
Which other countries have also such dynamic markets?
Thank you for your opinions.

From recent discussion on this board, it looks like the German stamp market has collapsed.

Relatively modern China (PRC) stamps have been a focus of speculators for a long time. The market has crashed a couple of times that I can remember. For the international stamp exhibitions held in China in the early 2000s, large quantities of better sets and souvenir sheets came out of the woodwork, still in post office packaging. These included a lot of sets and s/s then selling for hundreds of dollars each. If these items did not sell (my pure guess is that a lot did not) then they just went back in storage.

Now you can say that a nation of 1 billion plus would have a huge potential for stamp collecting demand. But a large proportion of that is still subsistence farmers. That still leaves a big pool of potential collectors, people who have disposable income. But there are still far more speculators than real collectors for China. So many people have stamps, some expensive, to hopefully cash in "someday".

Stamp values for many countries are cyclical just like anything else. The cycle may be longer than your active collecting life or may follow the general economy. That means if the economy crashes and stamp prices fall, your ability to buy stamps at the time may too. For those pointing to ever-increasing prices for any country you can name, you have to look at prices adjusted for inflation and the demand of stamps in highest condition vs. the range of quality possible.

My two cents.

Thanks for your answer.
I would like to have opinions about markets other than China.

Mexico might be an interesting watch going forward, for the 1934 National University sets. Just 1,000 of the regular 10 peso high value were printed, and only 1,500 of the 20 peso high value airmail. Couple months ago, Daniel F. Kelleher here in the US auctioned off a recently discovered, in Mexico, holding of 100 sets of the regulars, 100 sets of the airmails, and 100 copies of the cheap postal tax stamp. They came in, post office pristine, sheets and blocks.

Consider for a moment the regular issue 10 peso. Only 1,000 printed and this holding had 10% of those. What has changed is the total number of each set actually on the market. Be interesting to watch various catalogues that come out next year for any sign of increased market activity.

I have to agree we are seeing some dynamic changes in our hobby . It is not all in the area of speculation and investments of certain hot countries .
We are seeing a lot of great material coming on the market and it is overwhelming the smaller pool of buyers . We need to focus on what is changing .
First there is no change at the low end ,we continue to see a very active "2 cent " market ,what I mean by that is there is still a lot of activity in the cheap stuff ,you can see it on ebay with all the ads for 200 stamps for $5.00 or 100 stamps for 2.99 offers ,strong market but nobody is paying their rent bill selling in this "2 cent" market place .
At the high end the stamp auction houses are having a harder and harder time getting 1/2 of catalog for top shelve material ,prices are falling in general to 1/3 of catalog or less {please understand there is still items that get impressive prices ,but that is a exception}.
I just bought ton's of German Colonies collections at around 1/6 of catalog and that was unheard of a few years ago .I even bought Spanish Colonies collections from California auction house at 1/4 of catalog which a again was impossible to do {I told the story here a few years ago ,about the time I ran up a Spanish Colony collection at Regency Auctions almost up to full catalog and still lost the lot to another bidder and was sick the whole summer because Ilost that lot}. The point I am making is we are in a downward slide in both U.S. material and worldwide collections and the gems of philately are falling too .
Does that means I will cut back --NO !! Because I want to still enjoy my stamps and build a decent worldwide collection .
I seen this slow down before in 1979-1981 and again in 1997-1999 before ebay started . I don't buy hot countries or run with the crowd or listen to the experts .

Hot it's not. Not country specific anyway.

http://www.herrickstamp.com/marketi...mmentary.php

The people who drive the market are the key. Mexico is largely driven by its collectors in the US, with the core being members of the club collecting Mexico, MEPSI. Similarly, there aren't many collectors of Saudi Arabia there, nor was there ever. The collector base and prices largely come from the mostly American oil industry people that work or worked there.

I am a little surprised noone has yet mentioned the Indian market. Of course, India has its idiosyncrasies of which you must be aware, but it has a large and growing market, for its own and Imperial period stamps. The demand has even washed over to the Indian States, with which I'm more familiar.

Take the Barwani 1945 2 Anna Devi Singh (SG 35aB). Ten years ago Gibbons had it at £300 mint; this (catalogue) Year it's at £750:



Just about anything better from the Indian States is very dynamic.

The problem with Indian Native States is the counterfeit stamps made by Raoul Ch.de Thuin who was a excellent counterfeiter . There are two problems when dealing with his work . First he sold worldwide for many years before he was found out ,so many better collections contain his work . Second the original stones made for printing each stamp was different in detail so you would need full sheets plus the fact over time they would wear down ,so a large inventory is needed to understand the stamp and all the varities in the original .

hy-brasil wrote: "Mexico is largely driven by its collectors in the US, with the core being members of the club collecting Mexico, MEPSI......." I've been a member of MEPSI for about 5 years, since Mexico has become one of my several specialties. While most members seem to be from the US and Canada, there is a substantial bloc of Mexican members. The annual meeting is in Mexico about every third or fourth year. I did bring the existence of the big University holding to the attention of both the president and journal editor. Neither had been aware of it.

Floortrader: where did you get the scanned reference to the de Thuin counterfeits?

hy-brazil is right - the German market is terrible, although the German States seem to be holding up well.

STEVE -From my library ,the book is THE YUCATAN AFFAIR published by the APS .

Floortrader evidently doesn't know of the excellent work available online about various of the Indian States - particularly Jammu & Kashmir - or of the published works on some of the States - particularly Poonch:



Of course, if you buy accumulations of stamps, you run the risk of getting stuck with forgeries. The same comment applies to ANY older stamps. The answer is knowledge. That applies to any dynamic stamp market.

Tonymacg ---Is right ,I don't know all the excellent sites for Indian States . That's because I am working on FIUME and after that plan to work on TIBET ,then after that early JAPAN forgeries, In a few years Something like all the early watermarks of Brazil .My guess is I will get to INDIAN when I am in my 80's .
My understanding is that de Thuin made forgeries of Jammu -Kashmir stamps not from originals but off of the "Official Forgeries" or better said fakes made off of fakes .

Floortrader: thanks for your confirmation. I thought the reference might be the "Yucatan Affair." I've been in APS since 1974 and I remember the deThuin book being serialized in the AP. I wish I had thought to buy the book back then.