So They Tell Me The Stamp Market Is Crashing?

While I have not read some of the proceeding posts, I believe it is necessary to jump in here.

I regularly sell bulk used 2¢ Columbians (Scott 231) on ebay in lots of about 500 by weight. Prices realized vary 5¢ 5o 15¢ per stamp. Allowing for weight variations, the average value comes in at 8¢ to 10¢ per stamp. If Scott 231 is so common, and it is, how is this possible?

As it turns out Scott 231 is a stamp of many varieties. In addition to the "broken hat" and broken (or recut) frame varieties, many double transfers, relief breaks exist, not to mention unusual cancels including early machine cancels or numeric killer cancels. Apparently enough interest exists to attract multiple bidders whenever lots are offered. Bulk lots of the 1¢ Scott 230 sell for less even though the stamps are less common.

Unused 2¢ Columbians are another matter. Unused never hinged examples are much less common than hinged. Unfortunately, a high percentage of hinged examples have hinge remnants or other damage from mishandling by generations of collectors. Finding well centered hinged examples is easier than never hinged because many of the best examples available to collectors were picked from dealer stocks and hinged. Remaining never hinged examples were poorly centered. Well centered examples now found in the marketplace are from sheets that remained intact or broken from plate blocks or other multiples. Many straight edges from the top or bottom of 50 or 100 subject sheets were reperforated and added to the mix.

The significance is that unused never hinged examples with very fine or better centering are scarce. Poorly centered examples are relatively common. Undamaged hinged examples are less common than damaged. While the Scott Valuing Guide has attempted to capture prices of undamaged examples based on centering, the value for a true (not "commercial") very fine stamp may be low. Values are pulled down by reperforated stamps or examples with minor damage unnoticed by dealers or unsuspecting collectors. It is likely that values of average or damaged 2¢ Columbians is overstated while values of fine or better examples with no defects and good color is closer to being accurate.

Values in the stamp market depend on buyers, not sellers. Quality is still in demand.

Revcollector, you are clearly just pulling a number out of thin air and I am done wasting any more time on this.

Everyone here has pulled numbers out of the air. At least I made some attempt at logic for mine. I gave valid reasons why I thought 3% is logical, and how other contemporary stamps might have had an impact. If you don't agree, so be it. Give some logical reasons why not, rather then just saying "it's ludicrous" or something similar.

And my quantity issued numbers come from Brookman; as far as I am aware his accuracy in that area is good.

Do you think the stamp market has totally recovered from 2008-09, I know most everything took a hit, as did stamps. Folks tell me "stamp collecting is a dying hobby because only old farts collect stamps", I beg to differ, have seen many younger people collecting.

I think that in the United States the hobby is still viable for 3 categories:

1. Apex collector spending large sums on unique rarities and top graded stamps
2. Collectors of common, low grade and inexpensive stamps, collected for the enjoyment of collecting and the educational benefits derived from collecting that have nothing to do with grade, money, etc.
3. Those collectors who fall in the middle of the two previous groups who collect more serious stamps ($250 or more) but not the top graded stamps and put more money into the hobby but who regard that money as the cost of admission and do not intend to get much of any monetary return from their monetary investment but regard the return from their investment in non monetary terms like somebody buying a boat and enjoying the use of it even if selling for a significant loss eventually.

Therefore the only losers here are those in #3 who are expecting a significant return monetarily in their investment. In my opinion category 1 is a very small %, the number for category 2 I suspect is probably at least 33%, and I am unable to determine the percentages for #3 and what as I term as the "losers" ( figurative only because I feel they are unlikely to achieve their objective). The percentages of the last 2 categories I feel are important to the ultimate health of the hobby in the US--this may be different for the rest of the world.

The emphasis in this thread on the 2 cent columbian as opposed to the 15 cent or above denomination is telling to me. The higher denominations, even if graded only 80-85 are still going to be offered at a price that will scare away category 2 and of course would not interest category 1.

Funcitypapa - Your statement in category 3 contradicts your closing statement.

When you hear someone say the hobby is in a declining; ask them why they think this. The only justification for believing this is to use 1950-1960 metrics like 'the number of stamp stores has decreased' or 'membership on APS has dropped' or 'there is less attendance at stamp shows'.

If you measure the health of the hobby with these old methods than it does indeed look like a decline. But in my opinion this is ignoring the fact that the hobby (and our lives) underwent a paradigm shift with the internet.

Consider this forum in the context of a stamp club. If you had told someone back in 1969 that we had a stamp club that met 7/24/365 and that at any time you could find 20 - 50 people sitting there discussing stamps; would you think that the hobby was in decline?

It is like thinking there must be a decline in home improvements because Mom and Pop hardware stores are no longer found in every town. When the world changes around you have to change the way you consider things.
Don

Hi 51studebaker, well said sir.

But just a little part of the new internet way of doing things. I find the use of those symbols at the end of posting here, or at the end of the posting is sometimes confusing to exactly what they are supposed to mean. I've seen where it is clear like a smile. Others like a laughing action symbol could be taken two ways, positive or negative. A lot of these similes can be thought of good or bad to the person. Perhaps this should be removed? What do you think?

Just saying, I would not want to use one of these similes to should something funny, but the original poster might take offense to its use!

Stampmaster

I cannot believe you an pigeon hole people who are interested in stamps on 3 simple groups.

stampmaster,
https://www.stampcommunity.org/pop_new_smiles.asp
Don

I'm a member of category 3 and proud of it!

I have a golf club membership... I spend way more on golf than stamps.

I enjoy both hobbies but at least I may get a percent return back on the stamps in the end.

Golf sucks my wallet dry way more than stamps. A boat or a horse.... oh my. My wife and I owned a horse for 2 years.
Horse died. Some good memories but thousands spent on it. Oh my.

I guess I'm trying to say that you can't put a price or investment return on a hobby you enjoy. Life is short

Don

Thank you, but this proves my point, smiles can be taken two or more ways!

But since this is the new way to communication, guess I have to change.

So can I use these smiles in my posting? How do I go about it?

Thanks in advance (smiles "smiling face")

Stampmaster

Leisure activities - reminds me of the definition of a BOAT - But Only Another Thousand. Stamps usually leave with something....