So They Tell Me The Stamp Market Is Crashing?

I've mentioned this before, but it's bears repeating with the way the thread is going.

What has happened is a paradigm shift in the way people collect stamps. The number of people, especially in the 30-55 age range, who collect stamps is probably relatively stable, if not growing. There used to be a need for face-to-face encounters at some point with collectors and dealers. That's no longer the case.

For those doom and gloom collectors who see nothing but a dwindling collector base, think back to when you first started collecting. Most of the stamps I purchased as a youngster were done through the mail with companies like H.E. Harris. I didn't belong to any clubs or organizations. I didn't go to stamp shows. But I still collected stamps and still do.

Today, there are thousands, if not tens of thousands of collectors in the U.S. They are solitary individuals who have no current interest in organized philately and are perfectly content to collect on their own. Are they missing out on all the advantages of places like this forum, the APS or their local club? Absolutely, but they don't know that.

There are dealers who have always talked about how the hobby is declining, even when there were lots of collectors at shows and in shops. They still stayed in business. Strange how that worked out, isn't it?

Now, with the buying power being used on line at sites like ebay or Hipstamp or Del Campe, not to mention all the dealers with an ever increasing on line presence, the numbers of active collectors are even harder to see.

There are currently 952,603 U.S. listings on ebay. Of those, 75,688 auction only listings. These are pure auction lots. Think about that. If only a quarter sell, which is probably a very low ball figure, that would be 18,922 stamps sold this week. That would extrapolate to 983,944 lots sold each year.

Of course, some of those U.S. sales will go overseas. By the same token, that doesn't include the worldwide stamps which will be bought by U.S. collectors from the site. There are multiple categories, with another 33,000+ stamps in British area, just in auction only listings, just for an example.

That's just one web site. What of the others? When you add it all together, the number of stamps being sold is staggering for a hobby which is dying.

Unfortunately, what all these doom and gloom dealers and collectors are doing is helping drive these potential collectors back into their dens and armchairs where they don't have to listen to someone telling them what they are doing is a waste of time, that "...when you die there will be no one to replace you in the hobby." type of comment. Imagine if someone who had spent the time and effort to haul stamps to a show, supposedly to make a living from what they were doing, had said that to any of you years ago when you were first venturing out to a show. How would have felt? If the option had existed then to withdraw into your own hobby area and never have to hear that sort of negativity again, how many of us would have done so?

No, the hobby is not dying. It is evolving, shaped by the technologies of the time. Instead of declaring the death knell of philately, I would suggest everyone do their best to find these collectors and welcome them positively to the hobby. Help them discover the joys of organized philately.

I'm the President of our local stamp club. I've heard the same thing and put a firm stop to it in the meetings. When I did, we lost about 10-15 members. That was five years ago. We dropped to around 20 active members. Over the intervening five years, we've lost four members who passed away, but we've now increased the club roster to a solid forty-two members. Does that sound like a dying hobby?

I love this hobby and what it has to offer, and I believe that everyone who is talking about this probably does as well. We, as collectors, have to understand that nothing is static and that the only true constant is change. Once you embrace that, you can look beyond what we know, what we've always done and start looking for other ways to enjoy and expand the circle of people we know as collectors.

Okay, I've pontificated enough. If I've ruffled any feathers or hurt anyone's feelings, I hope you will understand that was not my intent and look beyond to what I've tried to impress on the community here. At the end of the day, it is up to US to do something about the hobby, not someone else.

To paraphrase the famous quote by Mark Twain, the reports of the hobby's death have been grossly exaggerated...

It is funny how in other leisure activities like golf they usually do not talk about how much money they will make.like they sell their golf clubs/balls for a profit...If people viewed stamps like golf, there would expect no financial expectation at the end. The money spent was supposedly for an enjoyable time. The money for green fees, lunch at the club, etc. that you never get back are more tangible in stamps.

If you equate greens fees with hinges, mounts and albums, no one does. Otherwise, there is no similarity since stamps do have at least some value and some people do make money from their collections. Very few, but as long as some do then many collectors will think that they will be among those who have. Just as people are always ready to believe that their 610 is really a 613. It's human nature.

I completely agree with Stampman's post (very well spoken!). As a younger collector (in my 30s), I love stamps and love the challenges of more complicated philately (see: plating old US stamps, Wash-franks, etc); but I ALSO acutely see/feel the obstacles to stamp collecting. It is easy to collect stamps online (at least the common cheap ones)...it is difficult to dive into philately or feed largely from shows and dealers. It is a non-tech hobby that does not naturally flow with the internet/social media/online existence life that most millennials live. To jump fully into the hobby requires money and time. Lots of time. Most young people have neither.

Most stamp clubs would love (at least in theory) to have young people at their meetings, and most dealers would love (at least in theory) to have young people visiting their booths. But neither usually feel easily accessible or welcoming to young people.

As an example, I have two kids under 4 y/o, we just moved into a new house, I work full time...I haven't been able to attend my local stamp club meeting in about 6 months--and I'm already fully immersed in the hobby.

Stamp shows and dealers can be difficult to enjoy. I've had multiple experiences where (whether it was due to my age or not) I felt brushed aside by a dealer because I didn't show enough up front knowledge on stamps or act interested in their high end stuff. There are few things at shows to make a new or budding philatelist feel comfortable. I would guess that most (as it was for myself) do not fully understand what corners of philately they would enjoy. For example, it was a few years before I even knew what plating was, much less that I could do it or would enjoy it. Yet you walk into a show with several dealers who each have thousands and thousands of stamps and when you walk up to one you are expected to know what you are looking for. It'd be like going to a record store without knowing what kind of music you like or even what is out there--and nothing is labeled clearly and no one is there willing and ready to explain it to you or make suggestions. [this is not bashing dealers--they are a business, and it's unfair to expect them to shoulder the burden for exposing and encouraging newbies to the great nuances of philately...but the old "model" that centered around the show dealer as the way to get more stamps or deeper into the hobby is not very attractive to younger generations--at least not in it's current form]. There is an exclusivity to Philately that is intimidating. It's far easier--for multiple reasons--to collect online. Convenience and ease of access are important.

What I'm trying to say is that I do think there will be future generations of philatelists. The numbers involved might even be more than today. BUT what is "dying" is the style and "shape" of how collectors and philatelists "live" out the hobby. Things like this forum, Stampsmarter.com, ebay and HipStamps and Delcampe, and friendly welcoming philatelists (like many of you on this board--thank you!!) are what will play an increasing role in the future of our hobby.

There's is truth to both revcollector's post and lukusw.

The philatelic media plays up the high end sales at auction and private treaty. I enjoy reading about what I'll never own as much as the next collector.

What is usually missing is the reality of the stamps that ARE collectible. I have to applaud Linn's and Scott's editors for making the daring decision to publicly voice what most collectors had come to realize in that there is, to use the euphemistic term used to report the downturn of the stamp market, a "softening." For years, dealers have been selling stamps printed since the 1930's as discount postage. The catalogues have listed the stamps individually at twenty-five cents and there is, in all fairness, the disclaimer at the beginning of the catalog that prices are what a BUYER could expect to pay from a DEALER.

The reality, which many collectors know, in the back of their minds (and that's where it usually resides) that they are often paying much more than the stamp is worth. We do it because we enjoy filling out albums, the thrill of the hunt, the satisfaction we get from finally finding that last stamp which completes a page. These are the things which drive us to continue, along with the beauty of the designs, the knowledge we gain as we learn more and more.

So when the auctions results roll in and the highest graded inverted Jenny (C3a) sells for a million dollars, we feel that maybe, just maybe that niggling voice in the back of our heads might be wrong...just maybe.

For the younger collector, it is much harder today than it was in the past. There are virtually no brick-and-mortar stamp shops left. Those which are NEED to sell stamps as the cost of doing business with a storefront continues to increase. They really don't have the time to mentor younger collectors with a small budget, but that was what kept many of us older collectors going when we might have given it up. Someone, at a show, in a shop, at a club, took us under their wing and helped us out. The took the time to explain how to use tongs and hinges, or to show us the difference between mint lightly hinged and mint never hinged. Maybe they gave you a better album than you had. Sure, it was used - and probably well used at that, but they still gave you something you didn't have. Maybe it was a pile of stamps to pick a few from to add to your collection. The point is they helped fuel our interest and kept us involved long before we realized this hobby was becoming something more, a passion.

The APS has started to work on this somewhat. I'm not sure they're going about it quite right, though. They have a beginning collectors' area at their shows, but the name alone may be a turnoff to some collectors. They may be new to organized philately, but that doesn't mean they are new to collecting. How many collectors who have finally gone to a show would just go right past that named area? I usually try to have something to suggest, but I'm not sure what to recommend on this one. Should the be a beginner's area? Absolutely. There needs to be some sort of area where internet collectors can gather to be welcomed as well. I'm just not sure what to call it, and that is part of the problem today. How do the established collectors in organized philately relate what we can offer to people who don't know about us?

To answer one of the issues brought up by lukusw, there are ways to increase your knowledge with very little cash outlay. This forum is one way. Membership in the APS brings others, including the APS journal. As a member, you have access to the American Philatelic Research Library and can borrow books from them. The only cost is the mailing of the material. As a member of the APS, you also have access to their journals and some materials online for free. I have a membership in the United States Stamp Society. Members have access to their journals going all the way back to when it started in the 1930's; the whole run has been digitized.

Just an example of how organized philately can benefit internet collectors, but something which has to be passed on to the collectors who don't know about these benefits.

I look forward to everyone's comments.

Stampman - instead of guessing (like someone else here likes to do), in this case you can look up how many US auction lots have sold on ebay in the last month - it was 172,347. Dividing by 4.25 weeks in a month gives about 40,500 in a week or a bit over double your guess. Problem is, while it does tell you that ebay is significant, it doesn't tell you how many collectors bought those stamps, nor does it tell you anything about the total size of the market. Neither the doom and gloomers nor the don't worry be happy crowd have any solid numbers to back what they feel is the case.

eyeonthewall, I'm not in either camp. While the numbers I extrapolated may be lower than the actual numbers sold, even those are significant indicators.

You hit upon the real problem when you said neither extreme of the discussion had hard information to support their positions. I suppose this is why I'm looking for ways to increase visibility of what organized collectors (members of the forum, APS, etc.) need to be trying to do to reach all the people who are not part of these groups.

I'm always more than interested in anything anyone can suggest to help improve visibility and inter-group communication. Any thoughts?

It will be interesting to look at the 2018 Scott Specialized to see what prices have done. If things are crashing, SELL prices should be falling! If there is any decline, sellers are trying to sell at current prices rather than pass the savings to buyers.

Stampman2002, APS has adult beginners' information at http://stamps.org. It also has had adult beginners courses in the past. At StampShow 2015 it had a meeting on "Reaching Out to Internet Collectors". All you have to do is be a member, propose holding such a meeting or giving a seminar, plan it and present it. There is nothing preventing anyone from doing that. An APS member here on SCF, for example, could propose such a meeting or seminar for Birmingham 2018. These ideas are well understood. They just require execution - by a volunteer.

I'm curious to know, as well, how you define "internet collector."

The current Sep 2017 issue of American Stamp Dealer & Collector is devoted to "Collecting & the Internet".

cjpalermo, thanks for the info. I know they've had beginners' courses and and beginners' areas. I mentioned the areas at the shows. Could I ask that such a meeting be organized? Sure. There's a couple of problems for me, though. I'm a disabled vet and traveling for me is hard. I was able this past summer to get to Richmond for a day and paid for it when I came home. Just a fact of life for me and one I deal with daily. I may not be the best suited physically for this. Please don't think I'm complaining, because I'm not; it is just the way it is, and I accept my limitations (and probably push them more than I should.)

What I was voicing a concern over was not just APS but for organized philately as a whole. Collectors, like lukusw, are NOT beginners as we traditionally think of them. They've been involved in collecting for some time, often years, but have never seen an advantage to joining clubs or organizations. As a collector, and an officer in my local club, I'm always looking for ways to entice people to visit the meetings, and see what we can do to help them want to become part of the group.

Please don't think I'm not appreciative of what has been done so far as I most certainly am. What I'm trying to wrap my mind around is how to entice, gather into the fold, bring together - whatever you want to call it - those collectors who have been at it for years, but not with others. Would you consider an area or invitation to a "beginners' meeting" or whatever it can be called, if you had been at it for a long time already? Sure, I can see where collectors who have been part of organized philately might consider these collectors "beginners" and that is not meant by those of us who have been around organized groups as any kind of disparagement to them. The question is "Would they consider themselves beginners, or even entertain the concept?" If not, how do we reach out to them?

How do I define an "internet collector?" To me, that would be someone who is purchasing stamps for their collection from sites like ebay, Delcampe, Hipstamp or others, but who are doing it all alone, without having ever contacted or belonged to a club or other organization having to do with stamp collecting. I suppose those who were turned off at one point and abandoned it might be included as well. For the latter group, what was it that turned them off and how can this be overcome?

Think of all of this as me thinking out loud, if you prefer.

I'm a bit behind on my journal reading, so I'll dig out the latest AP and find the article you mentioned. Thanks for the heads up on that, btw.

Sheesh....I've got to quit writing word walls....thanks for listening, all.

I'm an "internet collector". I'm a 45 year old guy, never belonged to any stamp organization, never went to a stamp show, never talked to a dealer, never attended a stamp club or saw a stamp presentation/exhibit in person.

I get all my stamps through online auctions. I research stamps via online resources, except for occasional auction catalogs that show up in my mailbox from some of big auction houses. I have never attended an auction and have no idea what it is like to bid on something in-person.

I have only talked to 2 people seriously about stamps... my dad who got me interested in the hobby, and a 91 year old client who showed up to my office with a stock book of Scott #1s (I posted pictures of his collection on SCF last year)

Otherwise the only other stamp collectors I know are on this forum, "virtual" fellow philatelists, many with great knowledge.

I think you are asking the question "why don't I join a local stamp club, go to a show, join APS, etc??"

Well to answer it honestly.... I don't need to anymore because the internet has everything I need!!

Interesting. Traditionally the stereotype of a stamp collector was an eccentric behind closed doors with a magnifying glass. But it really was a tight bond social circle. People met each other, discussed a common fascination and scheduled times to do this. So is the hobby really dying or is it just less visible? Stamp stores have been replaced by ebay? This is after all a sign of the times. Our largest retailer doesn't have a store ( Amazon), our largest transportation business doesn't own a vehicle (Uber), our largest travel agent doesn't have a phone (Airbnb) so times they are a changing.

Has ecommerce and stamp forums replaced stamp clubs? If I need help on a stamp from Great Britain I can post a great image here and more often than not have the correct answer within the hour. Before I had to wait until the 3rd Tuesday every month and hope that 1 of the 2 people in the club that knew Great Britain stamps would be in attendance. Now I can post a high definition scan of the front and back of the stamp and people from 30 different countries can view every detail of the stamp.

Now, are there less collectors than in 1968? Yes. Therefore the common material sales will die and prices will drop simply due to less demand. I still think good and high end material will still fetch a good price and if played right can be profitable.

rgstamp-I disagree, because the one thing a show has is people. Often very knowledgeable people, who can possibly open your eyes to items and ideas you do not know exist. And are just fun to talk the hobby with. And shows often have exhibits worth seeing. Collectors who do not go to shows when possible are definitely missing something interesting and important in the hobby.

rgstamp, your post sums up what my worries are quite nicely.

As an "internet collector," and I use that term with all respect to you, what could my local stamp club offer that might appeal to someone like yourself?