Let's Play A Game: It's Gambling Time!

You see the following 1st issue revenue collection being sold by a known dodgy seller for $550.

There is no verbal description, only the images shown below at the resolution shown below.

What are the potential positive items and why?

What are the potential danger items and why?

Do you bite and why or why not?

I've already made my decision, so it's a moot point with respect to opinions posted here having an effect, but I'm always curious to see other people's perspectives and thought processes in evaluating lots. Everyone is different (buying strictly for collection vs. resale or a combination of both, filling spots vs. specialization, etc.)

Based solely on the images, I would not. There's too many potential problems, including thins, cut cancels which cannot be seen and I've already got all but one or two of the stamps shown.

Now, if I were just starting out on revenues, possibly as there would be enough value to make the $550 seem plausible. I'd definitely be getting certs on a couple of the stamps, though

This listing is easy, a no brainer.


I would just contact my buddy 'Dan the revenue guy' (revenue-collector.com) and ask him for his opinion before buying stuff I don't have expertise in.

Don

First I get a count and divide into the price. $4.50 per stamp. That sounds like a resolvable ball park.I wish I could see the backs of the stamps, but I can see that they look good from the front. Few pulled perfs, cut edges, etc. I see about 25 stamps with 4 full margins. I like the colors, they seem bright. I see one changeling, but not a lot that look faded. I also like that it appears that there are variants on the side of the first page.

On the down side, it's mostly pen cancellations,the image is not good enough for me to to read them, so I can't tell if I am getting duplicates. The person who mounted these was sloppy. The mounts are not sized correctly for many of the stamps.

If I were starting off, I'd give it a try and fill a lot of holes. If I specialized, I might try it, especially if the well centered copies were upgrades for me. I've found I can usually get most of my money out of lots like this, and always find something to put in my album.

do I see an R31c there, might be enough for others to bite on. Not a lot for me.

an r31c should be a lot of its own, as most are faulty to some extent. that said there are too many off center items for my tastes and I have seen better examples of most of these items color wise. the cancels are ms. and do not appear to be other than routine. the money asked would be better spent on a few sound items with printed or hand stamped cancels.

If the R31C was of any reasonable quality at all it would be its own lot, same goes for the R2C.
I would be skeptical that they would list that lot at $500. It would be a Very risky gamble.
Personally with pictures that poor I would pass.

I would also pass. However I may have also figured, $4.50 per stamp is a decent gamble. The seller's previous experience with me as a buyer counts tremendously.

As mentioned before, the neatness/fastidiousness of the collector counts for some as well; as do penciled or otherwise annotated remarks other than the catalogue number. On this lot I didn't see any such notations (first strike against). Mounts and hinging a bit messy (2nd strike against). Poor photos are a major strike against--what is the seller trying to hide???

Plus, my rule for spending more than, say, fifty bucks on a questionable lot: If I don't know a lot about the area, I pass.

Three strikes and it's an "out" for consideration.

--Jim Wentzell
stampguyaps177-681

(emphasis added)

Just to make sure I'm interpreting correctly, if you DON'T see writing/annotations on album pages you consider that a strike against when evaluating a lot/collection?

Personally, I've always avoided writing visibly on my album pages, as I consider that to be sloppy. If I'm using 2-part Safe or Lindner pages, I'll write in light pencil underneath the stamp, but I always avoid writing on visible areas of the page.

I don't know that I would ever hold the lack of page writing against the material in question.

In the case, the numbers are clearly catalog values marked by the seller rather than markings made by the original collector.

Assuming all the stamps are in the correct place (which cannot be done from these scans), there are about a dozen stamps that $4.50 is a good price. All the rest are worth less, in some cases much less. There are no nice cancels and only one stamp that jumps out. And that is a stamp that normally comes damaged, but the actual severity can make a real difference in the value. To me this is a 5% of cat lot if bidding blind. Actual viewing might increase it to 10% or thereabouts.

I love discussions like this, seeing how different people assess the same material.

At the end of the day, there is no "correct" answer, as we all purchase and collect differently and have different tolerances for the unknown. Appraisal will vary greatly depending on any/all of the following:

1. How comfortable are you with the material in question?
2. Are you a general or specialized collector of the material?
3. How much of said material do you already have; how many spots do you still have left to fill?
4. Are you purchasing for your own collection, to break down and flip, or a combination of the two?
5. How comfortable are you with lots that are a gamble vs. a sure thing? Do you enjoy hunting for the diamond in the rough?

My assessment of the material:

[Disclaimer: rather than constantly repeating it, the possibility of unseen faults is everpresent and has to be factored in.]

When dealing with low resolution images, enlarging them either in-browser, or upsampling in Photoshop, while not a perfect solution, can frequently help with identification at least at a general level. I did that considerably in order to assess this lot.

I would be purchasing the material as a combination of hold and resale. There are 2-3 items in the lot I would want to keep, which could increase depending on whether there are any plate varieties in the lot (cannot assume).

Contrary to Bart's opinion, I actually think there are a few nice cancels in the lot, especially on 2 of the higher catalog value items in the lot: $1 Mortgage (R73c, SCV $300) and $1 Passage Ticket (R74c, SCV $350). Also, the $1 Inland Exchange in the top row appears to have a nice large-format cancel.

Now, to the R31c. Upsampling the image confirms that it is in fact an R31c. At first glance it appears to have some short perfs, possibly a repaired lower left corner, some sulphurization, and possibly a thinned area at center. Were it another stamp, it would be a 5-10% stamp at retail at best... in fact, many would consider throwing it in the trash.

However, R31c is a completely different animal. The wording in Scott:




So where does that leave us? I've bought and sold several R31c in the past 10 years and I watch what they bring on ebay and at major auctions. It's one of the key stamps in the 1st issue perforated set, and like it or not is always in demand, regardless of condition. Even complete dog examples sell for $400-600. I sold an example with numerous faults, but admittedly stronger cancel and a bit better eye appeal for $875 about 3 years ago.

Conservatively estimating a $300-400 return on the R31c, that takes a huge bite out of the downside risk of the lot. The 2 stamps I referenced above are likely $50-100 items each. Depending on actual condition, they could be considerably higher.

So we're almost at the break-even point without even considering the R2c, R17c, R51c, R77c, R79c, R80c or any of the other stamps in the lot.

Minimizing the downside risk makes it worthwhile (to me) for the opportunity to search for plate varieties and silk papers, two areas that you can never assume, but pay dividends enough times on average to make gambles like this worthwhile.

IMO, you have to risk the occasional strike-out in order to get those home runs.

To me, this lot has hardly any risk at all... but all the factors I list above may be utterly meaningless to anyone else.

I'll report back as to the actual composition of the material once I receive the lot.

P.S. Before making the decision to purchase, I requested and obtained a cellphone picture of just the R31c, which reveals that there is a heavy thin at center which erodes to a hole.

P.P.S. There is a return provision in the event I completely screwed the pooch in my assessment.

One of my jobs is estimating the value of auction lots for future resale. One of the rules is always be conservative when bidding blind. ESPECIALLY since the seller is currently hidden, so the trust level is blind as well. Obviously a collector looking to add items and sell off the rest always has more wiggle room.

Following up on this... the lot was as expected, with the usual number of unseen faults. Happily the R73c and R74c are both actually quite nice and will find a home in my collection.

Sadly, no plate varieties or silk papers in the group, which would have been a bonus.

I listed the R31c on ebay at $575 or best offer and sold it for $435 within 2 days. After shipping and all fees, the net was $390. Subtracting that from the initial $550 cost of the lot means the rest of the lot cost me $160, including the 2 stamps I mentioned. There are several other $10-75 net items in the lot, so when all is said and done I likely will have gotten the keepers at no cost... which is the point of the exercise.

As Bart correctly mentions, a collector has different thresholds and calculations from a dealer who would have to make a living on lots like this. I still think a dealer would come out ahead since conceivably they could sell the R73c and R74c for a decent return, but the resulting per-hour revenue probably wouldn't be great. Then again, a dealer would likely cherry pick the lot of 5-6 stamps and flip the rest intact as a show lot rather than spending the time and effort to break it down into singles.

Nicely done!

Dan, in response to:


YES!!! When I am considering an offer and am flipping through pages of a collection (in person or online) if there ARE notations penciled (little X marks near faults /short perfs, for instance) or some other notation such as NG (no gum) HH (heavily hinged) to me that is a time-saver.

A collector who mounts faulty or otherwise less desirable stamps and doesn't make note of it makes for a lot more work evaluating the value of a collection. And a lot more suspect as to everything else!

If the album is very well maintained otherwise, I usually erase the penciled notations and put a small Post-It™ note next to the offending stamp, so I can either replace it when possible, or point out in more detail the faults to a future prospective buyer of the collection.

An example is shown below:



(I have erased the penciled notations questioning the genuineness of the widely-faked imperf Washington/Franklin issues).

I like to leave open the possibility that I may have misidentified a more valuable stamp--in this case any possibly genuine imperforate issues--as a more likely altered cheaper stamp.

--Jim Wentzell
stampguyaps177-681