Mystic Suspending Shipments

Because alcohol is not a communicable disease. This is. And we can do nothing to stop anyone from getting it except shut everything down. And they will stay that way for as long as necessary. "Pressure" will not open them. That's why congress is working on a stimulus package.

Yup. Keep everything shut down for something with a 1% mortality rate for those infected, print tons of funny money and give people false hope that Uncle Sam can support them for as long as it takes ($3000 for a family of four goes a long way. Right?) and just turn the switch back on in a few months. Should work out just fine. Never mind that the societal carnage caused by the economic damage will make the virus look like a trip to Disneyland. Full speed ahead!

Editorial Note: Businesses will be opening again very shortly and testing will help tremendously in providing granular data to make informed decisions.

40,000 people die each year in auto accidents
88,000 people die each year in alcohol-related deaths
260,000 people die each year due to medical mistakes
480,000 people die each year due to cigarette smoking (includes 41,000+ deaths resulting from secondhand smoke exposure)

Not too many headlines or folks freaking out over these people dying around us every day.

I guess I am just used to living with the grim reaper after having 5 years of doctor after doctor telling me that I had a 5% chance of living longer than 6 months. I still live day-to-day and have many more gray sky days than blue sky days. But…so what? Everything eventually falls apart. The computer you are using right now will fall apart. The chair you are sitting in will fall apart. The floor and house you are in will fall apart. The earth will eventually fall apart. And most certainly we will all fall apart. I see little value in focusing on falling apart. Turn off the news, they are sowing division and hatred. Live each day to the fullest; try to laugh, cry, and learn something new every day.
Don

Deaths due of firearms are on the list as well.

I guess all the these deaths are not clogging up hospitals ICU's. I would expect ICU's full of flu patients so they must be passing away outside of the ICU's. (have no facts to know about the flu treatments.

Hi Al,

Understood.

It is just a bit hard for me to get too worked up over something that currently has a mortality rate of 1.4% when I have faced a mortality rate of 95% for half a decade.

Here is some context from my chair...
Want some doom and gloom? Try driving home for 4 hours with your spouse hysterical after being told for the third time that you are going to die and should get your affairs in order immediately. Want some pain and suffering? Try having a camera put up your penis, or have 10 inch needles inserted through your back and into your kidneys 8 time with no anesthesia, or become a member of the '1000 stick' club. Want something to impact your life? Try going to over 1000 medical procedures in a 5 year period.

Yet right now I cannot get the medical supplies that I need, my dialysis center cannot get the resources they need. All over something that has a 1.4% mortality rate.
Don

(not trying to argue, just voicing my opinion). :)

Well whether it is a 1% death rate or 15% of the infected - which we do not know because we are barely testing (except for maybe New York), I will do my part to help save even one life if I can. I can't stop Auto accidents (aside from not drinking and driving - which I would never do), medical mistakes, and well gun deaths - we know that will never be fixed in the US (sad), sooooo I choose to stay inside, and I choose to flatten the curve for as long as it takes over flooding businesses and streets before it is the right time to do so (not saying anyone said that). I believe the scientists who study viruses and communicable diseases for a living, data, facts, medical experts and those countries that have been hit hardest. I also am protective of our frontline healthcare workers, emergency response and Military professionals. Anyhow,I know everyone is entitled to their own opinion, so it is all good. Virtual Hug.

I wonder exactly how long some of these attitudes would last if it was suddenly their friends and family among the "few" who will die. I suppose that as long as their money is rolling in they won't care.

Any risk calculation is comprised of two parts; 'likelihood' and 'impact'. Considering just the 'impact' certainly plays the emotional card but I think it important to also factor in the 'likelihood' component.

So when I think about the risk of flying I do not only think about 'how I might feel if my friends and family died in a fiery plane crash' but also consider the likelihood that a plane will crash.
Don

There were an estimated 10,000 suicides in 2009 directly related to the economic crisis of that period. Money and more specifically the lack thereof is a real factor that needs to be considered. We are not talking about folks being able to purchase that second Escalade for the wife or husband. We are talking about people living on the financial edge that will not survive an economy shut down for months. We are talking about the depression and anxiety and substance abuse and homelessness and crime and general societal damage that goes along with a dead economy. Pick your poison.

Betcha that people that say "shut it down for as long as it takes because people will die" are not the ones that will be on the street looking for a meal. They will however paint as selfish and callous the folks that want things rolling again in a way that has balance and is based on real granular data, not media babble and hysteria. And I wonder where the "shut it down" people were when 50,000 died from the flu. It was oddly silent although in all fairness they had not been subjected to a media onslaught that is virtually unprecedented. There are numbers/percentages regarding people that will be infected and die being thrown about by the media that have zero basis in reality but they do whip up the masses. I read a slew of dire articles and listen to the media hair hats and then I listen to Dr. Birx at a briefing explain why the media numbers are just plain dishonest. That the 70% infection rate assumes no preventative actions at all and three reinfection cycles.

By the way, and off topic, why the heck are members of Congress sticking solar panel credits and a payoff of the Postal Service debt in a pandemic financial relief/stimulus Bill?

Except that this not a plane crash, it is an invisible silent enemy that can attack from almost anywhere, and which only shows up after some days. This means that there is no realistic way to have actual probabilities. All anyone has is trying their best to do the safe things every day.

The likelihood is simple math and according to the CDC as of today it is 1.4%. This is the data that we have today.

But I agree that some unknown disaster could occur, something like it turns out that no one actually overcomes it but instead this thing comes back after you have had it once and kills you 6 months later. And there are countless ways that the world could end like gamma bursts from space, giant asteroids hitting earth, super volcanos, etc. We could speculate that the common cold could mutate tomorrow and take out every human on earth.

My position remains that risk needs a balanced perspective of both 'likelihood' and 'impact'. Likelihood has to be calculated with the data you have on hand, I agree that it does not account for additional speculations.

I hoped that folks might be able to glean a more positive perspective by describing my medical situation, but I guess doom and gloom is trending.
Don

I agree with you Don. My 61 year old wife has been plagued with and battling serious health issues since she was 18 years old and has very little in the way of an immune system, having had a pancreas transplant years ago. She has had untold operations and procedures as well and yet she has a level of enthusiasm for life that I am still trying to acquire. She feels strongly that the Country needs to reopen for business while we wait for the giant asteroids to hit.

I was born with a serious health issue myself, which eventually required open heart surgery to fix. So I am aware of what that can be like. I was very fortunate in that over time my particular problem became fixable, although it wasn't when I was young. I certainly understand that this is not always the case. I also understand the economic issues involved, and the potential for long term problems to many people. But left unchecked, this virus could overwhelm the health care system and potentially kill millions, perhaps even be as dangerous as 1918, or worse. Hard decisions must be made, and the people elected to do so are making them. Perhaps some making better ones then others. All we can do at this point is hope for the best, and that the shutdown will not be a long term affair.

People calling for things to go back to normal for the sake of the economy are missing something, and they're missing something that should be blatantly obvious. A scenario in which the hospital system collapses and a million people die is also one in which the economy is very, very bad. The idea that there's going to be any kind of normal for (at least) the next few months is delusional, and that's the case whether we do absolutely nothing at all or whether we shut everything down. Some politicians might think having a terrible economy AND a six or seven figure death toll will be better for their electoral prospects than a terrible economy with a low death toll. Call me crazy but I'm unconvinced that'll be the case.

Hi Artful,
If the direction is to speculate, then we should not limit ourselves to the negative scenarios. Just as there might be 'a scenario in which the hospital system collapses and a million people die' there is a scenario that 'a cure is found tomorrow'. The glass might be half empty, but the glass also might be half full.

I have found that most of the time I cannot control the environment around me. I can not change the fact that I have Stage 4 cancer, I cannot change the fact that my kidneys failed and that I have to be kept alive with a machine.

But the one thing that I DO have full control over is what goes on between my ears. It is a conscience decision to look at the glass half full or half empty. Many healthcare people have noticed and commented on my attitude, without exception they all have said that remaining positive plays a key role in the outcome.

It is a choice to come onto a social media and be either negative or positive. And when we do this we are influencing other people. Look at how many doom and gloom posts we have had about this topic, and when someone tries to be positive they get called out. Is this really the kind of community we want?

Of course no one wants a philatelic community which buries its head in the sand and ignores topics like Mystic not shipping, shows being cancelled, or APRL being closed. I think it is also fine discuss fears and concerns but having balance is good.

Why not be discussing what our hobby should be learning from this experience? In my opinion it would be a huge opportunity lost if our hobby learns nothing from the situation and goes back to its 1970s ways. This experience has shown us the importance of the online aspects of our hobby. Hobbyists, organizations, and companies should now plainly see the value of online philately and be discussing how they can use technology to enhance and improve the services and products they offer.
Don