Cv To Sold Price - Store Data

The topic of how CV compares to real world prices is one that comes up often. I do monthly stats on that (among other things) for my stores on HS/Delcampe. Thought it would be useful for further discussion to have some real data - although it's a smallish sample size, can see some definite differences between geographical regions.

Below are 10 largest categories of stamps sold since mid-2020 in my stores (out of 29). I sell mostly mid-range classic era material at fixed price, all these categories have 200+ sales, so individual oddities shouldn't skew the results much. CVs are from Scott, except for a few cases where I've taken Yvert/Michel/Sassone as varieties were unlisted in Scott (and the "European CV discount" was then applied naturally :)).

Canada & BNA - 27%
China/East Asia - 50%
France & Colonies - 35%
Germany & Related - 37%
Italy & Colonies - 28%
Latin America - 50%
Portugal & Colonies - 41%
Russia & Area - 44%
Southeast Europe - 43%
Spain & Colonies - 48%

Biggest eye-opener for me is the high CV% & demand for Spanish & Latin American material, was not expected when started out.

I have more granular data down to country and period, but its accuracy diminishes as the total # of sales gets lower. Not covered in the above data as they aren't broken out separately is that colonies generally sell at a higher % of CV than the "mother" country - presumably due to lower supply vs. the demand.

Finally, have to mention Great Britain, coming in lowest at 18% of CV (not included above since I list little GB).

~Greg

Great stuff! Thanks for sharing Greg. It was interesting to see where Russia came in and your data fits with my retail purchasing experience. I used to collect Canada and was always surprised at the low % of cv everything seemed to realize. Same with Italy. I have noticed even pre-pandemic that LA collection lots were attracting a lot of attention and competitive bidding at auction. I would guess that France proper is holding back the combined percentage for that category since Colonies seem to be smoking hot.

How has Mongolia done?

Excellent - thank you for sharing. Yes me being a Mexico collector- where I'm looking for better material, I'm having a tough time finding some items and price is pretty high. Climber Steve gave me some good recommendations on dealers so that helps some, but I've had to pause my Album a bit as some of my missing early stamps are really too expensive for me right now. On the flip side I'm enjoying starting my GB album :)

Are all the mint stamps in this analysis in the same condition?

Absolutely, France is 27% CV, Colonies at 40% (I sell much more colonies than France proper).

I also track percentage sold of items listed - and there's a pretty good correlation between the areas selling for a higher % of CV and the top sellers by % of listings sold. Top % sold to listing major country was Peru last I checked.

Re mint, no of course not - I wish they were all perfect MNH! CV is based on MNH/MH and then I set my price based on condition & demand - same for used obviously.

Mongolia - oddly enough, only have a few but haven't sold one. Guess I should have bought one of those crazy lots that came up a few months and stocked up!

Interesting analysis. Thank you for providing it.

I often wonder if there's an opportunity for someone to compile a serious valuation of real stamp values using online and auction sales. The amount of data now available is enormous. I don't think Scott takes the updating of their valuations seriously.

I don't know how many times I've come across a >$50 catalog valued Canadian or Great Britain stamp in a mixture and thought I could sell it on ebay. These just sit and sit no matter how low you go.

I am puzzled. Gmot, correct me if I am wrong, but this data comes from sales at net prices, and not from a free-market auction format.

As an example, if I broadly priced my Canada at 50% of catalog, my France at 40% of catalog, and my Japan at 30% of catalog, then my statistics would show:
Canada, 50%
France 40%
Japan 30%

To get an idea of the the % of catalog value, don't we need to have auction-format data instead?

Great point. Yes, to get a pure "free market" view we would need data from someone who sells auction in volume with low starting bid. It would be very enlightening I'm sure.

I could list all my Canada at 50% of CV, but I guarantee my sales would be minimal... You do see some interesting approaches to pricing - some sellers list everything at a set % of CV regardless of supply/demand, others list at a very high % of CV but have a permanent sale.

What I provided is a measure of "at what average % of CV" I am successfully selling at for different countries/regions. With the hope it may be of interest in discussions re CV relation to market price. It can only be suggestive, given variations in sample size, period, condition, focus, etc...

Something that would help ascertain if pricing is in line with market expectations re % of CV, is average number of days between listing and sale - i.e., how long does an item sit before selling. I have the data, but haven't done a good analysis as yet (frankly, because right now I'm selling almost as fast as I list). If there's interest, I'll look to provide data on that sometime.

~Greg

"I don't know how many times I've come across a >$50 catalog valued Canadian or Great Britain stamp in a mixture and thought I could sell it on ebay. These just sit and sit no matter how low you go."

The trouble with GB is that QV and KEVII issues tend to have been cancelled by Bigfoot and the last QV issue and forst KEVII issue also are often faded.

There is a huge note in Scott that read "Cancellations on stamps from the 1847 issue to the 1900issue, and in many cases beyond, are usually heavy. Values quoted are fir stamps with better than average cancellations. Poorly centered stamps and heavily cancelled stamps may sell for 10 to 20 percent of the values listed here." [the last sentence is in bold]

Anyone who sells typical classic GB and then complains about a disconnect between the prices they get and Scott has their head in the sand.

"I would guess that France proper is holding back the combined percentage for that category since Colonies seem to be smoking hot."

ebay's choice to lump the mother country and their colonies together for both France and Germany is absurd.

My Target is 25% of Scott CV
which may explain my stamp examples can be poorer than MUH.

Biggest (Imagined) Percentage rise, are "Cinderellas"

I was outbid last week on 4 lots, averaging $30 -$50 a page.

Good post. Would be curious to see how other seller's sales statistics compare with yours.

Not surprised about Latin America though. Only viewing this through the prism of Ecuador (which is South America of course;) but there are probably 30 stamps that I've never even seen or had a chance to bid on/buy. Wonder if the number of harder to find stamps drives the % of Scott value up for countries/regions with a larger number of harder to find material?

Where is USA in all of this?

I agree with Andyrich74. I have spent years (ebay, hipstamp, delcampe, stamps2go, APS stampstore, etc.) looking for certain foreign stamps that have CV's less than a dollar without any luck. However, if I wanted to get a set of US Zeppelins (from faulty to 95+ graded) there are thousands available just a mouse click away. I doubt Scott, or any of the catalog companies for that matter, focus much attention on keeping lower CV material up to date pricewise. I guess with the number of stamps out there, it would be impossible.

I thought there was a poll/post a while back asking which low CV stamps have you looked for high and low and come up empty handed. Anyone remember that?

Given how scarce these materials are, Scott cannot be expected to be able to value them correctly. There has to be sales data to draw from, and these items clearly trade only rarely.