The Lessen Learned From Game Shop

Morning all,

Oh what a tangled web we weave when our hobby becomes another excuse for economic skullduggery. The true value of any item is the price at which a willing buyer will purchase it from a willing seller. Anyone who steps in between the buyer and seller with the motive of seeing how much money will stick in their pockets for this detour cannot help the situation.

Our hobby is healthy and active, so far, with many younger folks enjoying playing with the 99.9% of our treasures worth less than an arm and a leg each. I say so far because the next generations coming up will have no functional use for these antique little pieces of paper. Given the glues and papers used to make them today will they really last forever?

Postal history may have more longevity since they will answer the inevitable question, "Grandfather or grandmother, how did you communicate with your friends back in the B.C. [before computer] era?

In very recent Australia kiloware am seeing the print of the stamp cracking and falling off the face of the stamps. Not a lot of them just some.

It is not a good look but believe it is about heat from direct sunlight at this point.

People collect all sorts of useless items. Collections could be considered history museums.

As for Game Stop, I thought one key intent was to punish hedge funds that were selling the stock short and it worked. It reminded me of movie "Trading Places". To me it shows how disconnected the stock market can be from reality and all the financial games that can be played to make money.

Is your concern about something similar happening in stamps but then there is no short selling in stamps?

Everyone is mostly "long" in stamps. No shorts that I know of, but not impossible. Steve Perlatein had a excellent column in the Washington Post on Sunday explaining the asset run up, the FED, and the markets.
No one is exempt from the economy. Stamps are in there somewhere.
Game Stop: some of the shorts took it I the shorts but then some of the hedge funds made out like bandits. Citadel.

Stamps don't have the day to day volatility that stocks do, and are not traded in the same ways. And stamps are not fungible, while each share of a specific stock is. Two completely different markets.

That s true Mr. Revenue. Every auction is a snapshot of value at that time. Overtime trend lines can be discretained. I imagine the stamp markets reflect the current money economy which the stock market does reflect. Stocks are much more vulnerable to manipulation, I grant you.
It's amazing to me that something printed 150 years ago on paper that the postal service was continually experimenting with to lower the expense, along with the ink that the post office was also trying to lower the cost of, have lasted to today. I tell myself they were only printed to last one trip thru the USPS

A small point, 150 years ago, it was United States Post Office Department rather than United States Postal Service.

Thank you, well taken.
I am continually amazed at the amount of stamp knowledge available here, In large points as well as small points

"Every auction is a snapshot of value at that time".

But it is only a snapshot of the value of the specific item being auctioned, and does not have to have any relevance to another similar item being sold elsewhere. That is the big difference; the specific condition of any item sold changes everything. Stocks never have to deal with that situation.

I'd somewhat disagree with you Rev; Stocks, like stamps or any other collectable (or really anything material) are subject to ups and downs as supply/demand dictates. Stocks deal with that all the time; just on a much much much larger scale; and the auction is simply conducted on an ongoing basis.

If I misread or misinterpreted your statement; my apologies.

Interesting and good thread! From reading this forum, the consensus is that most modern stamps do not appreciate beyond FV and often can be purchased in the resale market for below face value.

I agree that supply and demand ultimately determine the fair market value. However, what explains these following two issues (one from 2019 and one from 2020) selling for double face value or more on auction websites?

Scott #5359b, Quantity issued 400,000,000
Scott #5428 Quantity issued 24,000,000

Both are currently unavailable from the USPS. Scott 2721 (Elvis) had a quantity issued of 517,000,000 and yet they can be purchased for face value or less or auction sites. What explains this? Lack of interest in Elvis?

One would assume the more scarce an issue was, the higher the price, but that's not the case with the two examples above (5359b and 5428). Based on those examples, can one assume that this year's Lunar New Year issue and the forthcoming Garden Beauty are going to double in value in 1-2 years? Should the WSB crowd start buying this year's Lunar New Year issue and any forthcoming issue with a flower, since apparently those topics are in demand, as a way to help the USPS with revenue and as an investment LOL?

Is the interest in flowers and Lunar New Year cyclical to where perhaps next year, the aforementioned issues in the resale market will decrease in value and instead Elvis will increase?

Are there certain topics that are consistently in demand? Star Wars, Disney?

Looks like the Year of the Ox is a strong seller. One person bought 300 sheets. Maybe that person thinks their investment will double next year or they have a lot of friends born in the Year of the Ox.

https://www.ebay.com/itm/USPS-New-L...AOSw7FBgG-Id

"I'd somewhat disagree with you Rev; Stocks, like stamps or any other collectable (or really anything material) are subject to ups and downs as supply/demand dictates".

Yes, but each stock share for a specific company is identical, so the price for one is the price for all. That is never true for pretty much any philatelic item valuable enough to be an auction lot, because the condition and centering is almost never quite the same for each item. And those differences create different prices and different levels of interest.

A share of stock represents so much more than itself. A stamp represents....itself. There is no comparison.

The present value (price) of either a stock or a stamp reflects its buyer's expectation of its future value. To a true collector, the stamp always has value to its owner regardless of how it market value changes.

I started this before mr. Hoosiers comment. Then it reloaded and I lost it all. I don't know but I think stamps , to me at least represent desire. The value of any stamp is based on many factors that all create "desire to own". The more persons whom desire that particular stamp create the demand that will determine the value of that stamp. Each stamp is a particular, but so is each collector. Recently a collector on this forum was looking for "space fillers". And I under stood. Recently someone on this forum made the comment thatSiegels indicates the market. I understood. Two very different collectors driving different sectors of the same market.
Mr. Hoosier makes a pertinent point. I understand because I collect for my own sentimental reasons.
The intersection of art and history is what I understand in stamps. But that is just me. I don't want to pay too much, but I really don't care what the value is.
A stock on the other hand to me at least is an investment. I want the PEG ratio near 1. I want free cash flow, I want a cushion of value.
Stamps are desire, investments are about money. But when Mr. Coogle write about the "Stamp Market" it's a reminder to me that my hobby is another mans business.
I think this makes sense, but I am not trying to offend
Regards