Winds Of Change In The Philatelic World

The whole discussion was about 'bottom feeder' being derogatory, until someone, as usual, started patronising and focusing on its application in the field of investment.

The whole discussion was started by the" winds of change " that we are seeing in the MIDDLE SECTION of the stamp community .

Stamp prices are weaken ing in this section and as these prices stay low for the past few years it will reflect in the stamp auction business and hopefully we don't start seeing more auction houses closing . As mention in the O.P. ,auction houses are seeing less aggressive bidding .

Too many lots get no bid or the lot goes for one or two bids from the opening . THAT IS THE WINDS OF CHANGE .

It has nothing to do with high price stamps or "bottom feeders " those will live on in the philatelic community .

Lots with no bids also might simply be opening to high. And there have always been plenty of lots that sell for only 1-3 bids over opening.

Exactly this. Without context, the statement means nothing. If it's an auction house/platform that normally opens lots high, and lots closing 1 or 2 increments above opening bids is the norm, there's nothing to see here. If, on the other hand, it's a house that normally opens lots way below likely market value and the lots are still only closing 1 or 2 increments above open, then that's a different matter.

Same thing with ebay: If I offer a lot with a $0.99 open and there's a bidding war to $100, it looks like there was a feeding frenzy and "Wow! L@@K!" activity, but if I offer the same item opening at $99 and it sells for $100, it looks outwardly like there was no interest, when the end result is exactly the same... now add the scenario that I list the same item with a $100 Buy It Now and it sells in short order... was it underpriced? Did I leave money on the table?

In the first 2 scenarios, it depends who was watching or searching at the time of the auction. Whose eyeballs saw the lot and decided to participate?

While online is a different model than traditional auctions, I perceive a trend over the last several years to shorter lead times between auction announcement and the actual auction, in many cases less than a month... which doesn't leave a lot of time to plan or budget. Yes, for those who play in the highest echelons, money is of no moment and they are not as constrained as us mere working mortals, but it does impact overall participation. For example, the actual lot composition of the upcoming Siegal auction of Brian Bleckwenn's First Issue Revenue Collection was published yesterday, November 15... for a sale being conducted December 12-13. Not much lead time.

Everything relates to the overall economy. You can look at auction sales records from just before and after the 2008 disaster and see the massive decline in results. The firms that were well managed are still operating.

The other definition of bottom feeding is of course bidding the least amount hoping to snag a deal. Done that too. Lots of stamp collectors are virtue signaling their love for the hobby and their joy of paying high prices. I look for deals and am happy to do so.

The stamp market is in steep decline once the boomers die off. GenX not enough of them. That is the story. How many young people collect like myself. Hint I don't have a single friend not even one that does.

I've been hearing similar predictions since approximately 1990.

There has never been a better time to be a stamp collector.

Increased competition has helped rationalize pricing so building a collection of choice is now much less expensive. And since we all understand that stamp collecting is a hobby involving hard assets, there is unpredictable risk regarding market adjustments. If it's really a hobby, then why are so many of us worried about what our collection is worth when it comes time to sell? Skiing, smoking, travelling, photography, camping, and many other hobbies have basically no return on investment but people pursue such hobbies with passion.

If you buy well (and yes I am cheap when it comes to pricing of items in the $50 to $500 range), and then sell your holdings intelligently, you may be able to break even as was mentioned earlier in this thread by Rogdcam. If we remove our concern over money and simply seek to enjoy stamps there should be no concern over collection value and reselling. And, there should be no concern over a "shrinking" hobby (like Don/Studebaker I believe the hobby is transforming rather than declining); it just means there is less competition.

Things have never been better in Philately.

Both can be true, right? revenue collector could be right: people have been wringing their hands about this for decades. That doesn't mean that the first statement isn't also true, to some extent. I don't think there'll be a cliff, per se, but I don't think the rate of decline is going to taper off for some time to come.

Not to rehash the 'does organized philately represent the true extent of stamp collectors' thread, but APS membership is an okay (not great) proxy for more committed stamp collectors, and they're shedding about 1000 members a year.

I agree with shermae - this is a boon to some of us who will be able to afford material that's currently out of reach.

Somewhat tangentially related news story here from the WSJ on how younger Americans just don't check the mail very often: https://www.wsj.com/lifestyle/mail-..._featst_pos5

Regarding the middle levels of the market, it really depends on what part of the world you are talking about. Classic Continental Western Europe up to c. 1960 is definitely deflating from the boom it had in the 60s-90s as newer generation of collectors do not seem to have much interest in stamps featuring a bunch of kings in different shades and perforation, but stamps of these eras from the Newly industrializing countries that began their economic boom in the 1980s and 1990s are still strong as these stamps are being repatriated back to their homelands. In that sense the markets are a reflection of the global economy and demography. But unless the stamps have strong topical interest, most Continental Western Europe is in decline in the mid-range. Glut of product and lack of demand.

Note this drop has been exacerbated by the decision of several Continental West European nations, Germany and Netherlands in particular, to demonetize non-Euro stamps in the latr-2000s-early 2010s, which meant the only market for the stamps is the collector market.

Long story short if you focused your collections on Germany, Benelux, Scandinavia and bought when that market was booming back in the 70s and 80s, selling now is rather painful if your focus is on the financial. Selling say China, India, Malaysia on the other hand if you were buying before the market took for those in the 80s and 90s off looks great from a balance sheet perspective, and will likely continue to do so as long as the macroeconmics continues to favor growth of middle classes in those countries.

So long as we don't fret too much over financial return in say 30, 40 or 50 or more years from when we purchase the items and factor in the cost of enjoyment and mental relaxation we enjoy while the stamps compared to engaging in other hobbies while the stamps are in our possession, then younger collectors such as you and I should see this as a buying opportunity in those areas that are coming off their high points in valuation in the last couple decades, as Shermae is also suggesting.

In the end the GenX and later generations are poised to benefit in building their collections from the current and coming decline in valuations caused by the glut of supply the passing of the Boomer generation of collectors will bring to the areas of collecting the Boomer generation tended to focus the most on. But with the caveat that the money you put into the hobby now likely will not bring much of a positive return unless you put that money into truly rare stamps (things with values over 20K. Truly rare items will always remain rare barring any new discoveries of supply).

Of course if you are coming in looking to make a positive return on investment in the stamps you buy decades down the road, I would probably suggest placing your discretionary income elsewhere, as the supply and demand factors we now see with continental Western Europe will likely hit areas that are currently *hot* like China and India and there will be corrections in those markets at some point.

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Exactly the point I have been trying to make. To me, it seems that since the 1990s in particular (when the boomer generation was starting to reach their peak income earning years in their careers, coincidentally) there has been a increasing focus on valuation of stamps in the philatelic media (print media in particular, where more than half the space in publications are taken up with sdvertising) and return over initial costs paid for stamps as signposts to how good a collector has been in developing their collections, rather than in the years of enjoyment they should have experienced building and owning the collection.

As I have said before, I believe it will be much better for the hobby as whole if collectors stop seeing stamps as investment tools and see them for the enjoyable and educational hobby they are. In the end if you are lucky in the end to financially come out ahead, all the more better, but don't bank on your collection being your sole nest egg for retirement either.

Alas from reading some of the comments in this thread, there seems to be many collectors who took that message of the importance of return on investment to heart, and now with the changing global demographics of the hobby many of these collectors now face the days of reckoning that, in the end, most stamps other than the truly rare are not really strong vehicles for investment of wealth seeking a positive return.

Stamps, in general and when you factor in inflation, have not been a good investment for decades and decades. (Yes, there are exceptions, please note that I said 'in general').

Yet the 'urban legend' persists, probably encouraged by increasing catalog values which, at best, reflect rising inflation over the decades. It is probably also bolstered by stories of the occasional 'rare find'. I previously posted a 1930s page which also lamented the promotion of any 'investment' part of the hobby.

I guess some urban legends often have long legs. Just like the stories I have listened to since 1974 that the hobby was dying. I am still waiting for a good answer for how many decades have to pass before folks finally stop repeating them. <shrugs>
Don

We seem to be trapped in the prison of two ideas. Value and enjoyment do not have to be mutually exclusive. For myself, retaining value AND enjoying my collections very much coexisted. The only reason I dipped my toe in pricier stamps was because I put in the work to alleviate my concerns about taking a bath down the road. It was easier to justify obtaining scarcer, and to me, more interesting material. If you can afford to consider your purchases as sunk costs than that is OK too. To each their own. I wanted completion and that meant a complete Columbian set and grills and a pink Scott 64 in my US collection. Since I am not Bill Gross, I wanted to know that if I had to sell, I was not throwing $100 bills out the window. If on the other hand you want to collect all minimum value stamps that is fine as well. No one should be telling others that they are wrong or bottom feeders or catalog queens or blah, blah, blah. There is enough fomenting of division in general, we don't need it in our hobby.

By the way, investment is not the worst thing for a hobby. It can keep it vibrant and alive. In a 2015 report it was noted that the global stamp market was three billion dollars with fully one third of that money spent by Chinese collectors/investors. That is a lot of money flowing into a "dying" hobby. Investing, collecting, who cares so long as it keeps the hobby alive. A lot of things we use every day would not exist if hobbyists did not spend money. Whether you lock the stamps in a safe deposit box or place them in your tattered album you have helped to keep the manufacturers, publishers, dealers and auction houses going. If buying from mom & pop ebay sellers you have kept the hobby churning as well. A healthy hobby has a healthy marketplace. (no offense to used popsicle stick collectors)