Winds Of Change In The Philatelic World

Man will that be great. I have hundreds, if not thousands, of revenue documents that *might* contain incredibly interesting (and informative) content, but I candidly can't be troubled to spend the time (and the eye strain) to glean the context of what is written on them.

Who knows how much historical information is locked deep within handwritten documents and letters around the globe...

That will be useful. Hopefully it will be trained to understand dated forms of writing, like use of the long "S" which is rampant in the 1800s and earlier.

There are online services now that can be tried for free (most limited to a few hundred words). You start by uploading a page or two for it to learn. You then correct any mistakes you find and feed it back to the AI learning algorithms, it then uses that feedback to improve on additional docs for that 'job'.

The current pricing models are 'per word' type subscriptions (which a dislike) but hopefully over the next year or so methods to purchase this tech will become available. I have also noted that much like other AI implementations, there is a lot of variability between AI models.
Don

"What is really needed now . Is two things .

First ---- We are in danger of running out of experts .

Second ---We are in danger of running out of serious buyers for better material . We are fast losing the generation who was spending $1,000 to $15,000 a year on stamps and related material ."

- Very true. You can also add stamp shows to that list. All the dealers are pushing 70 and also the exhibitors are mostly all boomers.

It is true that young stamp collectors are mostly in Asia now. I talked to multiple large dealers. It's about 20%. 20 percent of the stock goes overseas from US and Europe.

My take is that a young stamp collector; they will be able to rob the house with the amount of cheap product about to hit the market. 15 years folks and most of the baby boomers will have passed on. Then it's GenX and Millennials turn. This right now in 2023 is the high point for stamp values at the middle to lower end.

In my opinion, traditional pre-internet metrics like stamp shows, brick and mortar stores, and club memberships are no longer good reflections of the health of our hobby.

The internet paradigm shift drastically changed our lives in so many ways but without doubt changed how most people interfaced with this hobby. The trouble is no one has a good handle on how to include the explosion of philatelic activity that occurs online. Without online metrics being included in any assessment of the hobby's health, it will not be accurate.
Don

studbreaker - stamp collecting will not go away, but I am 100% sure that young people online or not are not stamp collecting in western nations as a whole. there is just less of them. Demand from western nations in 15 years is grimm compared to today. Today at least the boomers are still rocking.

We have had young people as members. They were online. They did collect stamps. They just did not stay with the boomers.

Studbreaker?... different... I like it.

Hi stampgreendragon,
Here is an image from the 1968 APS convention, not many younger people shown here. This looks little different than the philatelic gatherings I see today (although these folks are better dressed).


There are many, many articles from the late 1950 through 2000 that say the lack of young people in the hobby was a bad omen; that's two generations of predictions of an impending collapse. I think that other than the 1940s and into a bit of the post-war period, kids have never made up a significant percentage of the philatelic demographic.

But this community averages 5-6 new members per day most of whom are 45+ years old. There are hundreds of thousands of philatelic listings online. There are tens of thousands of philatelic websites.

Stamp Smarter will get 2 million pages views this year. This is a personal website that is only 8-9 years old and has been run without an operating budget and without any marketing.

I do not know the exact health of the hobby but when I factor in the online aspects of the hobby, it seems fairly strong to me.
Don

IMO when discussing stamp collecting demographics it is important to understand that it takes two primary things to collect, time and money, both of which tend to become more abundant as we age. You also have to acknowledge how humans are wired. In your twenties you are likely building a career and involved in the mating game. Hopefully, when you reach middle age, you have more disposable income and more leisure time. You may be settled down or just chasing men or women with less regularity .

The above are generalities but I think they apply to a great many people. You are never going to see 25-year-old men or women outnumber 50 somethings in the philatelic game. My apologies to Charles Epting et al.

OK ----I have to disagree with some of the statements here .

I just spend six hours sitting at my desk watching two things on two different computer screens , I have a level 2 quote system to watch the financial markets and the other was watching the bidding at a stamp auction ,it was Harmers International with lots of great material .

I come to the decision to reduce in a big way any stamp purchases for next year . My decision will be the same as hundreds if not thousands of other collectors . Stamp prices are falling and if they are top quality material the pricing is stable and have been the same for many years ,in other words prices are in a rut .

Watching todays stamp auction at Harmers ,it was like stuff was selling but selling at about at best 1/3 catalog ,but some at 1/4 catalog . But what was troubling to me most was the lack of aggressive bidding ,some but very little . If I can say it in my terms ,the auctionneer was looking for active battles between bidders but it was like sold close to opening bid was the rule of the day and I seen this at Kelleher and Dutch ,selling close to opening with one or two bids .

We are suffering from lack of "I got to have that lot " ok buyers will buy it if it opens low enough or a one tick up buyer .

Why the winds of Philately are changing simple answer ---INTEREST RATES .......If stamps prices have stayed the same for the past 10 years or in the rut ,Why buy now it is better to get above 5% per years now and build up my purchase power over the next year or two , if rates go higher the better maybe to 6 or 7%.

ROGDCAM ---- I have to disagree with you about having time for stamps at the age of 22 /23 years old ,I had plenty of time . Even when I lived 2 doors from the Strip Club "Bubbles of Love " here is my upstairs apartment . Which serve as a refuge for wayward girls or girl who were in the dancing profession and needed a place to stay .

Just my opinion but I feel that philatelists or just people who like collecting stamps don't weigh whether they can get x percentage on their money by investing vs. just buying what they want, that they feel are in their hobby budget. I don't feel savings and investment versus hobbies, eg buying stamps, are part of the same decision-making process.

If prices are stale or dropping, I would consider that the speculative bubble of 2020-21, when people had a lot more time to work on hobbies, could explain adjustments in stamp pricing within the marketplace.

without giving away my age. I can just tell you in my experience that there are very few young collectors left. I don't know a single one in hundreds and hundreds of young people. When I bring it up they all just laugh at me. Seriously, I can't think of a single young person who even collects cheap stamps. They are all into cryptos, gaming and the like.

Floortrader is correct. He is also correct about interest rates and opportunity cost. 2021 free money is over folks. It's recession time. That being said for the smart young person, there is going to be huge opportunities to acquire nice stamp collections for a song.