Fun With Mythbusting

Spurred on by the influence of a number of you on this list, I finally reached a point that it was high time (overdue, in fact) that I do something about the key gap in my collection regarding the issues of 1847 and its reprints - US numbers 1,2,3 & 4. For all these years I have not had a set of them. For many years I had a two-margin #1 with a small hole in it, and that was it for the bunch. But you lit a fire under me, and I went after them. However, in the effort I also observed something else that you deserve to hear about too.

There is a common perception afloat that the quality of classic material available on ebay is invariably inferior to what one can get from the big auction houses, and that, conversely, the price/cost of material from the established houses is so much higher than what one pays on ebay that the houses might as well be avoided by the average collector. For this and other reasons, many people who are regular buyers on ebay shy away from the big houses. I think this is to their mutual detriment. So I have put together a little comparison.

The five items in this image (click on it for a much larger view) were all obtained online within this past month. The stamps of the top row are Scott #1 and two examples of #2. The bottom row has two proofs; a card proof of #3 and an India proof of #4. The #1 and the #2 next to it, and the #4P3 all have what were described as small thins but no other damage. The #3P4 has some scuffing and minor staining. The #2 hanging over is sound but has had a pen cancel removed.





Two were purchased on ebay, and three from major auction houses; i.e. one each from Kelleher, Siegel, and Michael Aldrich. Can you tell which is which; ebay versus house?

In relation to 2014 catalog value and actual grade, which ones do you think were the best deals?

Cat:
1 - 425
2 - 1000
3P4 - 200
4P3 - 250

I hope you'll be willing to discuss this subject and put your guesses and thoughts out there.

[I know I haven't given you the cost info yet, that will come. First - who was who, and then how well did they do? You tell me what you would expect.]

I have to be honest, I don't consider any of the above stamps to be a good deal - although you didn't say how much the #2 cost (with removed pen cancel) - I consider the prices to be full retail.

I personally like the #2 best (next to the #1) because of the huge margins and sharp impression, but considering it has a small fault, I would price it at $700-$800.

Brian

Edit: I misread your cat values given as actual prices.

I would expect the #1 to sell in the ~$200 range. I think the #1 and #2 are auction house items - because the small faults are identified. The last #2 I would expect to be an ebay item. I would expect the 3p to sell for $50-$75 and the 4p to sell for $200.

Those are my best guesses!

Brian,

Sorry for the confusion. I have not given the prices paid yet. The numbers are the 2014 cat values for each type of item. Any thoughts on which came off ebay and which off an auction house?

I think they were all purchased on ebay

[quote] ... I think they were all purchased on ebay ... [/quote}

You can see further into essayk's heart than I can.

I was taking his "... one each from Kelleher, Siegel, and Michael Aldrich ..." at face value.

Silly me, eh?

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

Oops!! I guess I forgot that.

I would guess the last two were the ebay items.

I would not buy any stamp over $150 without a valid positive certificate. Too many things can happen to those stamps in 175 years.

Glenn, I would be one of the first to say you should not do anything in stamps (or anything else for that matter) that you are not ready for. It's a question of familiarity. In my field of interest I am confident that I can service my needs without dependence on the certification committees. Heck, I used to serve on one myself. But outside my field, there are lots of things below $100 I would not buy without a certificate.

The nice thing about thought experiments and challenges like the one I have set before you here is that you can explore the market without taking the plunge. So, if your imagination is at all stimulated by the first US government issues, then looking for the most economical way to get access to them is a good idea.
Even if it's a stretch, what do you think of buying at a called public auction versus the online style from a price/value standpoint? Got any theories about that? Here's a chance to put them to the test.

eyeonwall: what led you to your conclusion? Just a hunch?

Who else besides Brian is ready to take a leap? Or, if risking an estimate isn't your thing (its a public thing, I get it) then maybe a comment on the relative merits of these buying venues is in order? Your thoughts?

With the 1847s, I'd want good certs before I laid out cash for them ... unless I thought that my expertise was such that I could be sure of their status (it isn't).

I guess that the #1 and #2 were purchased on ebay and the other three at relatively good prices at auction houses.

This is a wild guess based on some subtle (probably flawed logic). As far as I can tell there is no concrete evidence you have presented pointing to one venue or another. I could be guided by my prejudices, i.e., the myths about ebay vs auction houses, however that would be even more of a wild guess.

The only real evidence to go on is the post title and introductory remarks about this post, regarding myths. You state its commonly held that material on ebay is inferior, hence I postulate the #1 and #2, which look pretty good to me, even with minor thins, were purchased on ebay. Since the other half of the myth is that auction houses are more expensive, I postulate you got really good deals on the other three.

OK, here's my plunge...

I think the first two (top left, middle) were purchased at auction, and bottom right reprint proof at auction. This is because the top two have handstamp cancels, and described thins. The bottom right stamp has nice margins and sharp appearance, hence auction house lottable.

The two others (top right Scott 2, bottom left 3P4) I think were ebay purchases. This is because the Scott 2 has a pen cancel removed (however you don't say whether it was described as such) and the bottom 5c looks a bit washed out - so both of these wouldn't make a Siegel auction lot.

I am looking forward to your summary on these...

Hard to say without seeing the backs of the stamps, did you have that opportunity when originally purchasing them? Were these a part of bigger lots? Did you buy other #1, #2, #3P4, or #4P3 and this is selection of stamps?
Don

Edit; I'll take a stab in the dark...
Top Row
ebay, Aldrich, ebay

Bottom Row
Kelleher, Siegel

Don asks good questions here that I did not touch on earlier. Let me fill in those blanks.

In all cases I had the description and a front view only. The descriptive details on condition I have given here. Each item was lotted and purchased individually. There was one other item that was purchased from the same sale as one of these. I have previously shown it to you here: https://goscf.com/t/39657


Don's "stab" makes me wonder. For the next phase should I tell you the sources or the prices? If Don knew the prices and could compare them to catalog he might be able to figure out the sources. How about the rest of you? What should it be?

I'll wait and see.

I would tend to agree with Orstampman that the removed pen cancellation on the second #2 would lead me to think ebay. The first #2 and the #4 India proof just appear to be catalogue material. The stains and scuffing may not exclude the #3 from a catalogue listing, so to be different I could see the #1 on ebay and described with a thin. For my two cents I would like to have sources revealed prior to the costs. It adds more intrigued to the thread in my mind to save the cost for last. Thanks for a very interesting post.
Hobsun

I am at a loss to understand how you expect anyone to guess whether or not you got a "good deal" unless you disclose the prices you paid for each of them? There are "good deals" to be had in ALL venues if one is knowledgeable. In public auctions, the vast majority of the better material is bought by dealers, so a collector needs only to beat the dealer by one bid to get a "good deal". On ebay, I suspect virtually everything is bought by collectors (I'm sure SOME mainstream dealers buy online, but not many).

My guess is that you bought the three 10c stamps/proof from public auctions and the two 5c on ebay.