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 Replies: 15 / Views: 2,936 |
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Valued Member
United States
49 Posts |
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Can anyone give a brief summary of recent market trends for unused US Classic stamps? For example, which areas of these stamps are hot, which ones may be good values, etc? I'm not interested in errors, inverts, etc, but just regular stamps with major Scott #'s. I'm a relatively new collector so I've just started relatively recently. I have a Davo album with tons of empty pages although starting around Scott #300, there are more and more stamps on each page. I can probably afford one big purchase say around $1000 every 3 months or so, so this is going to be a very long haul to fill these pages. (I'll probably start another thread on collecting strategies later.) I just won this Scott 88 for ~$900 in the current Siegel auction. After doing some research, I probably overpaid a little bit there, but I understand that will happen as I gain more experience in these things. So basically, since I have a lot of stamps that I still need, I would prefer to purchase stamps that may current be a bit undervalued right now rather than buying stuff at the top of the market. For example, I think Columbians may be a priced a bit high because there is so much demand for these relatively to the # that exist out there. A less popular issue may have much fewer unused examples, and have a better price. Therefore, I'd prefer to target these and loop around for the stamps that have a greater pool later. Thanks again!  |
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Pillar Of The Community
United States
1756 Posts |
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Quick note about Columbians...
Some of the series have appreciated (finally) after a very long
draught in pricing... however, you'll still find many quality
copies available for sale inexpensively by amateurs...
Be patient and don't make hasty decisions because you want to
"fill those holes"... go through the listings number by number
beginning with the 230 and choose wisely and in accordance with
your budget...
If you see any items which you're unsure of, upload the image
here from the listing and the auction/listing link and many of
us will advise you, accordingly... |
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| Edited by disi123 - 04/29/2015 2:37 pm |
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Pillar Of The Community
United States
1942 Posts |
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Are you looking for investment grade stamps or simply nice appearing stamps for a collection? Here's one way that choice makes a difference: uncancelled classics with full original gum are rated in a completely different scale from identical stamps with no gum at all. Buying the classics is not a straightforward listing of prices, but requires estimating the impact of several factors. As for a quick answer, I have tried writing a response to that 5 times, and can't do it briefly. Too much to juggle.  I had to try uploading the pic of your stamp since your image was so different on my monitor from the Siegel image. I just had to see if it really changed that much. |
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Pillar Of The Community
United States
2952 Posts |
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Your question is not as black & white as I wish it were.
Your gut feeling about Columbians (among other stamps) is accurate in that the prices were highly inflated for a long time. The Columbians, in particular, reached the height of inflated prices back around 1983 and have seen huge drops in prices over the years.
Have prices reached bottom? I don't know. But if you're concerned about collecting with the expectation of breaking even (if not making a profit) then you are in the wrong hobby.
I would encourage you to collect what you enjoy first - even if it means paying fair market prices - then look for bargains on the items that don't excite you (for me, that would be Scott 246-284).
I think you will find the hobby much more fulfilling with that approach.
Brian |
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Brian Riley
APS 223349 |
| Edited by Rileysan - 04/29/2015 4:25 pm |
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Valued Member
United States
344 Posts |
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I have been expanding and improving my collection of US Classics over the past two years, with a budget very similar to what you have stated. I have been buying at shows in Michigan, as well as some carefully considered ebay purchases. Frankly, I have been amazed at what I have been able to add to my collection. Here is what I have personally experienced with show purchases from Michigan, Ohio and Indiana dealers: - Sound Fine material is selling at 20-30% SCV.
- Sound Very Fine material is selling at 40-60% SCV
- Sound Extremely Fine material is selling 80-125% SCV
- Superb and up material is asking at 250% and up.
At the recent Plymouth Show in Metro-Detroit, asking prices from East Coast dealers were generally 20% higher than what I have seen from Mid-West dealers, and they were less receptive to negotiating on price. Members of my local club have told me that prices are higher on the east coast, but I have also been cultivating relationships with many of the "regular" dealers at my local shows and that certainly results in some better prices. I will also add that I was given a good recommendation by one of those guys to a dealer I had never done business with. Once he was assured that I was a legitimate buyer, I know that I not only got to see material I wouldn't have had I simply been a walk-up, he was also more willing to work on price for multiple items. During this time, I have - added #2s to two collections
- completed my 1869 pictorials and upgraded #114 to VF-MOG
- upgraded my 90-cent banknotes (144/155/166) from faulty to sound VF
- upgraded my 4-cent #211 to VF-MOG
- completed my Columbian $3/4/5 and upgraded the $2 from faulty to sound VF
- completed my Trans-Mississippi with a VF $2
- added a full set of VF-MOG Zepps, with the 65-cent being MNH
I go into a show with a prioritized list. For the Plymouth show, it was $5 Columbian, $2 Trans-Miss, upgrade 166, upgrade 144, upgrade 155, superb-gem 371, check out fancy cancels. I stop at every dealer with appropriate material. I tell them what I am looking for, and that I will be checking on everything available before making any purchases. As I am compiling that census, I am also ranking items in order of desirability. Then I start shopping. The best Columbian had sold while I was shopping, but I got the next best on my list along with the T/M from the same dealer. I was fortunate in that I was able to complete my want list with about $400 left to spend on fancy cancels. My budget there, as well as what I expect to spend at the APS show in Grand Rapids is admittedly higher than usual due to a fortuitous business deal, but my approach remains unchanged. I realize this isn't really a "brief" response, but I hope it will be helpful. Happy hunting! |
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| Edited by kollectorkurt - 04/29/2015 8:17 pm |
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Valued Member
United States
49 Posts |
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Thanks for taking the time to write such a detailed reply. I've never been to a stamp show before, so I'll take your advice and start looking into this. I live in the San Francisco area, and unfortunately, I saw that I just missed Westpex 2015. Has anyone been to that show before or know how the dealers there are? It looks like the one next year is in New York, however. Quote:I have been expanding and improving my collection of US Classics over the past two years, with a budget very similar to what you have stated. I have been buying at shows in Michigan, as well as some carefully considered ebay purchases. Frankly, I have been amazed at what I have been able to add to my collection. Here is what I have personally experienced with show purchases from Michigan, Ohio and Indiana dealers: •Sound Fine material is selling at 20-30% SCV. •Sound Very Fine material is selling at 40-60% SCV •Sound Extremely Fine material is selling 80-125% SCV •Superb and up material is asking at 250% and up. At the recent Plymouth Show in Metro-Detroit, asking prices from East Coast dealers were generally 20% higher than what I have seen from Mid-West dealers, and they were less receptive to negotiating on price. Members of my local club have told me that prices are higher on the east coast, but I have also been cultivating relationships with many of the "regular" dealers at my local shows and that certainly results in some better prices. I will also add that I was given a good recommendation by one of those guys to a dealer I had never done business with. Once he was assured that I was a legitimate buyer, I know that I not only got to see material I wouldn't have had I simply been a walk-up, he was also more willing to work on price for multiple items. During this time, I have •added #2s to two collections •completed my 1869 pictorials and upgraded #114 to VF-MOG •upgraded my 90-cent banknotes (144/155/166) from faulty to sound VF •upgraded my 4-cent #211 to VF-MOG •completed my Columbian $3/4/5 and upgraded the $2 from faulty to sound VF •completed my Trans-Mississippi with a VF $2 •added a full set of VF-MOG Zepps, with the 65-cent being MNH I go into a show with a prioritized list. For the Plymouth show, it was $5 Columbian, $2 Trans-Miss, upgrade 166, upgrade 144, upgrade 155, superb-gem 371, check out fancy cancels. I stop at every dealer with appropriate material. I tell them what I am looking for, and that I will be checking on everything available before making any purchases. As I am compiling that census, I am also ranking items in order of desirability. Then I start shopping. The best Columbian had sold while I was shopping, but I got the next best on my list along with the T/M from the same dealer. I was fortunate in that I was able to complete my want list with about $400 left to spend on fancy cancels. My budget there, as well as what I expect to spend at the APS show in Grand Rapids is admittedly higher than usual due to a fortuitous business deal, but my approach remains unchanged. I realize this isn't really a "brief" response, but I hope it will be helpful. Happy hunting! |
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Valued Member
United States
49 Posts |
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Quote:
Your question is not as black & white as I wish it were.
Your gut feeling about Columbians (among other stamps) is accurate in that the prices were highly inflated for a long time. The Columbians, in particular, reached the height of inflated prices back around 1983 and have seen huge drops in prices over the years.
Have prices reached bottom? I don't know. But if you're concerned about collecting with the expectation of breaking even (if not making a profit) then you are in the wrong hobby.
I would encourage you to collect what you enjoy first - even if it means paying fair market prices - then look for bargains on the items that don't excite you (for me, that would be Scott 246-284).
I think you will find the hobby much more fulfilling with that approach.
I appreciate your thoughts, and it's good to know that the current prices for Columbians might actually be a valley rather than a peak. I think that the approach that you suggest is fair. I come from collecting baseball cards the last few years, and I think I developed a similar collecting focus in that area. That is, I try to spend most of my funds on items that have nice eye appeal and that I like looking at almost every day rather than just paying $$$$ for items that just fill a spot, but that I don't really enjoy too much. I think that stamp collecting can work with a similar approach. The other thing that I've been thinking of is to just try to collect one "nice" stamp of each expensive image, and I can go "cheaper" on the rest. For example Scott #'s 5-9 have practically the same image except for some minor spots. I might just try to collect a nice, cheaper unused stamp for one of the spots, and then leave the others empty or choose a cancelled one there. About collecting with the thoughts of breaking even, to be honest, I do have that expectation somewhat. I mean I know that many stamps I buy won't be worth much more than to use them as postage. However, I think over time, I do plan on spending tens of thousands of dollars on the collection if not more. So even though I will have enjoyment value from the collection, I wouldn't want to be in a situation where I'm taken to the cleaners on it. I can probably stand a 10% loss, so I hope that I can stay above that level. From my card collecting experience, I'm actually able to sustain a lot of my new purchases just from selling cards that I've upgraded, so no longer need the lesser copy. It's probably going to be a lot more difficult in stamps, but I'll see what I can do. One thing that I've found from selling cards on ebay is that it's a lot easier to sell for the price you want if there aren't many cards in that condition currently being sold at the same time. So absolute scarcity and condition scarcity matter. If practically the same stamp is being sold every week starting at 99 cent auction, you're probably never going to be able to make your money back on that stamp. Also when I say "sell for the price you want," I'm not saying huge markups, something more of the line where you can roughly make back what you paid for it after fees. Again, I may be in something that I had completely never thought of when I try to sell stamps, but I guess I'll learn for that. And again, I'm not in this to sell stamps to try to make money. It's more of, if I purchase lots for just a few stamps, and try to sell the remainder, or if I upgrade a stamp, that sort of situation. |
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| Edited by glchen - 04/30/2015 03:40 am |
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Valued Member
United States
49 Posts |
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Quote:
Are you looking for investment grade stamps or simply nice appearing stamps for a collection? Here's one way that choice makes a difference: uncancelled classics with full original gum are rated in a completely different scale from identical stamps with no gum at all. Buying the classics is not a straightforward listing of prices, but requires estimating the impact of several factors.
As for a quick answer, I have tried writing a response to that 5 times, and can't do it briefly. Too much to juggle.
I had to try uploading the pic of your stamp since your image was so different on my monitor from the Siegel image. I just had to see if it really changed that much.
I noticed the same thing on that Siegel image. The one I posted was from the Siegel Comparables for that stamp where it seemed a lot browner. However, the stamp image that you posted is from the current auction listing, where it seems pinker. I'll have to see what it looks like when I receive it. In regards to your question, I think I'm looking for a collection of nice looking stamps. However, I'd like to have the collection roughly hold it's value somewhat. So, it's not really an investment, but I wouldn't want to be taken to the cleaners on it if I sold it in 10-15 years to help pay for the kids' college tuition or something similar. |
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Valued Member
United States
49 Posts |
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Quote:
Quick note about Columbians...
Some of the series have appreciated (finally) after a very long
draught in pricing... however, you'll still find many quality
copies available for sale inexpensively by amateurs...
Be patient and don't make hasty decisions because you want to
"fill those holes"... go through the listings number by number
beginning with the 230 and choose wisely and in accordance with
your budget...
If you see any items which you're unsure of, upload the image
here from the listing and the auction/listing link and many of
us will advise you, accordingly...
Thanks for the advice and the notes on Columbians like the other poster. This is a great forum, which I've already used to help identify some stamps. I'm a newbie so this forum has really helped. I'll try to be as patient as possible. However, from my experience from card collecting, I've come to know that sometimes you don't really learn until you have the items in hand where you can really examine them. For example, with cards, after you've looked and touched a lot of them, you develop a feel for what is authentic card stock for that period, and it can help you determine which cards are genuine and which are fake. It's the same thing w/ making mistakes in the beginning that you learn from, and hopefully become better at in the future. One thing that I saw was interesting in the Robert Hall Collection currently being auctioned by Siegel was the comments in Lot 974 for some Revenue stamps: "...the stamps present which catalog more than $1,000.00 have been checked and most determined to be fakes (including virtually all the better part perforated)" So, it shows how difficult stamp collecting can often be where even such a long time collector with a world class collection can be duped by fakes sometime. |
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Bedrock Of The Community
United States
10625 Posts |
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The nature of first issue revenues makes many part perfs VERY difficult items to know well or collect. In depth knowledge on shades, dates, impressions, and paper is essential. The higher catalog part perfs are very scarce and there are plenty of fakes out there of them. Although he had an extensive collection, Mr Hall was not a revenue specialist and some fakes can be very well done and require serious study and discussion. |
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Pillar Of The Community
United States
2055 Posts |
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Quote:
About collecting with the thoughts of breaking even, to be honest, I do have that expectation somewhat. I mean I know that many stamps I buy won't be worth much more than to use them as postage. However, I think over time, I do plan on spending tens of thousands of dollars on the collection if not more. So even though I will have enjoyment value from the collection, I wouldn't want to be in a situation where I'm taken to the cleaners on it. I can probably stand a 10% loss, so I hope that I can stay above that level. Bear in mind that even if individual stamps hold their value over time (no sure thing) that you will build your collection in bits and pieces, and you'll pay the going market rate for each item at the time of purchase. If you sell all at once - particularly to a dealer - you'll take an immediate hit because collections will invariably sell at a lower % of cat value than individual stamps and sets will. For example, if you were buying a collection of 100 stamps each with a retail value (purchased individually) of $100 each ($10,000 total), you would expect to pay significantly less than $10,000 for them as a collection. For the majority of "collector-grade" stamps, the only way you're going to come close to breaking even is to sell them the way you bought them - individually or in sets, directly to other collectors. A dealer has an expectation of making a profit on selling the item, so the market value to a dealer will probably be half or less of the retail price that you paid. If you sell at auction, there are auction fees to consider, etc. I'm not saying that it's impossible to break even, give or take a small percentage, but it's not likely. If this is a major concern, you want to buy the best quality you can find for any given stamp, as super-high quality stamps generally hold their value better than average, run-of-the-mill stamps. The overall market trend for most stamps is that "average" material is trending downward whereas the high-end is holding its value or even appreciating. |
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Pillar Of The Community
United States
1414 Posts |
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If you expect to recover a reasonable percentage of the money spent on a collection, most or all of the more expensive stamps should have certificates. In my experience a significant percentage of stamps without certificates may have undisclosed faults or alterations that will kill their value. Unfortunately, many ebay and some show dealers either don't know the difference. There will be little or no recovery from lower priced stamps, but a dealer will pay more if the collection does not contain faulty or altered stamps. When buying more expensive stamps without certificates, buy subject to certification and send them in immediately. If a stamp comes back bad, go back to the dealer for a refund. If several stamps from a dealer are bad, avoid the individual or company in the future. Unfortunately, many dealers do not have the skill or expertize to fully vet their stamps or they simply lack the time to thoroughly check their stamps before offering them for sale. The best dealers are often well known for their expertise and may exhibit, expertize, teach or write articles for philatelic publications. Buying from a wide cross section of dealers based on price will probably not achieve cost recovery goals outlined in some of the posts above unless the buyer has enough experience to be able independently verify the identify of each stamp and the ability to detect common alterations or condition issues. I would not expect much success buying at much less than Scott Valuing Guide or SMQ prices unless the buyer knows more than the seller. Many dealers have to make enough selling to collectors to make up for their losses selling to philatelists. Clark |
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| Edited by cfrphoto - 04/30/2015 10:53 am |
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Pillar Of The Community
United States
1942 Posts |
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Based on what I have been seeing this past weekend, and the testimony of a couple of dealer friends, perhaps the most cost effective way to build a collection that will hold its value is to purchase high grade bulk/remainder lots out of name sale auctions. Judicious buying of this sort of material at the early stages of collecting, will jump start your collection, give you a base for upgrading, and give you material to work with to generate additional capital. If you don't want to "deal" in stamps, then build small collections out of the material and "flip" them as whole collections. |
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Pillar Of The Community
United States
4092 Posts |
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Quote:
I live in the San Francisco area, and unfortunately, I saw that I just missed Westpex 2015. Has anyone been to that show before or know how the dealers there are? It looks like the one next year is in New York, however. Westpex is one of the two big west coast shows (Orcoexpo is the other). It will be held again in late April next year. The big show in NY next year is in addition, not instead of Westpex. |
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Pillar Of The Community
United States
1017 Posts |
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Also the APS StampShow will be in Portland next year, in August. PIPEX is this next weekend in Portland, 40 dealers and 240 frames of exhibits. |
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Valued Member
United States
49 Posts |
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Thanks for all of the responses and advice received here and via private message. I really appreciate it. I'm definitely learning a lot, and trying to keep my expectations on resale value as realistic as possible. I'm not looking to sell stamps regularly. However, I do know that there may be a time in the future where I may need to sell based upon financial need (hopefully not!) or more likely, I will be upgrading stamps here and there or have duplicates that I want to sell later. I was looking through my album the other day, and although there are still huge amounts of blank spots, there's still nothing like looking at these beautiful stamps on album pages. As mentioned before, I collect cards also, but it's just a different experience. |
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Posted 04/29/2015 2:29 pm
