Trends In Collecting?

Going through somebody else's 70+ year old stamp collection has given me lots to think about. Among other things, I can see areas that were focused on for awhile, and those would be followed by others.

This makes me wonder: have you folks noticed trends in the hobby? Does it seem as if interest might be very intense (and values might inflate) in a region or country (or topic?) for a period of time?

Do current events (wars? geo-political upheavals?) have any impact on what people seem to be interested in? Have you ever seen an intensely negative event have a negative impact on a region / country's collectibility?

Just kind of curious as to what you've observed, and would be interested in your thoughts.

I think it tends to be based on what is perceived as the "next big thing market," sort of like real estate in Chicago: this neighborhood is going to be the next Lincoln Park (which gentrified and values skyrocketed) decades ago. In stamps it was China (because of the growing wealth) and then Russia because 20 years out from fall of the USSR people now look differently on those Soviet era stamps and then it was India because of that putative growing middle class. In each case there was some truth and a lot of hype involved.

That's one kind of trend. I'm sure there are others, longer term and differnt, upon which other SCF members will certainly comment.

John Apfelbaum often comments on this kind of thing in his blog entries. He sees himself as something of a philatelic historian (family business for 3 generations) and has a lot of good insights into the trends over time. (He thinks that no one has really begun to expore the history of philately properly; whether that's an exaggeration, I leave to others to decide). He also tends to recycle material on his blog, but it's worth exploring if you've not followed it. There's a lot to learn there.

For instance the growth of first true philatelic marketing drove much of the issuance of French and other colonial stamps in the 1890s and following. Same thing with the Columbian Exposition issues--entirely directed at collectors, not at the postal system's actual needs. In that case they overestimated the market and issued too many and too expensive and most collectors couldn't afford them.

Or the appreciation of one or two of the first souvenir sheets in the 1920s, which led people to think that souvenir sheets would always appreciate in value rapidly and started the whole trend of buying quantities of new issues and socking them away as an investment--so many people did it that most of the later souvenir sheets did not appreciate and, as a result, all US commemoratives from 1930 onward are worth less than face value today. Pat Herst has some good commentary on the souvenir sheet crazes of the 1930s running through his Nassau Street book.

But I've now exhausted most of my limited knowledge. Others can add more substantive ruminations.

I think Chinese stamps might be the hot thing. I base that only on my limited experience and observations.

Up to the 10 cent there were legitimate rate uses for the Columbians, but all the values above were just for collectors. Up to about 1923 the mint $5 could be bought below face.

So carrying forward along those lines, Hieronymus, might we expect to see a change in Cuban values / collectibility?

And what about (for instance) the recent (or even current) wars in the Middle East. Was there an increased interest in Iraq or Afghanistan, or currently Syria?

When there is a middle class and upper middle class with money available to collect and buy stamps, then that country can become hot. Until Cuba, Syria, Afghanistan and Iraq have peaceful times and a solid economy, stamps will be far on the back burner.

revcollector yes, I can see that. But what about interest from people in places not affected or involved, where people have the $. For instance, do you think people in the United States might be more interested in Cuban stamps now that they are accessible (I think?). Or might it go the other way and because of the increased accessibility, would Cuban stamps be less attractive now?

Actually Apfelbaum had his sights on Cuba about a year or so ago, but that was predicated on the Castro brothers eventually disappearing into the sunset and the economy and society opening up. I'm afraid the Obama administration has just pretty much guaranteed a brass-knuckles Communist regime there indefinitely--no China-type boom on the horizon in my view.

Apfelbaum was also suggesting Brazil a year or two ago, on the grounds of prosperity and growing middle class. Of course top-down, command or hyper-bureaucratic economies and societies are vulnerable to sudden lurches in one direction or another. Predictions are cheap (help to fill a daily blog quota). The trick to the predicting is that you have to guess what the "next China" will be long before it becomes the next China, otherwise you won't have time to lay in a huge stock at cheaper prices in order to make a killing. So when one is predicting a bright future for a basket-case banana republic, one has to be operating pretty much on blind optimism.

India was probably a safer bet but the appreciation has already started there so it's probably too late to make The Killing there, just as is now true for Russia and China.

My tongue is firmly in my cheek. We all know that stamp collecting is different from stamp speculating and no one here really cares that much about the speculating side of things.

Polimom asked about trends--there are other trends apart from price fluctuations and Polimom was really asking about that. So with apologies for steering this in the speculation direction, I'll sign off in the hope that others will have things to say about other kinds of collecting trends.

When used, poorly centered low denomination classics become hot..., I'm gunna be rich.

Countries do certainly go in and out of fashion, but fashionability has less to do with geopolitics and much more to do with economics and demographics.

Not all that long ago, Italy and the Vatican City were very fashionable. They're still collected of course, but the oomph has gone out of them. Europa-themed stamps were highly fashionable ... but just try and sell a Europa collection now. Twenty-five or so years ago, people were paying crazy prices for mint Australian stamps: I know, I was there.

But look at which philatelic threads here and elsewhere attract the most interest: the Classics never go out of style. Someone mentioned Afghanistan as being on the philatelic outer. Well, it is and it isn't. Noone is making money out of modern Afghan stamps - but just offer a genuine first issue Afghan Tiger on cover, and stand aside for the rush of collectors waving money.

India has also been mentioned. Like China, this is a story of economics and demographics. There are more collectors, with more money, in India and China. Never mind that stamp collecting only appeals to a tiny minority. Tiny minorities of the populations of India and China are still big numbers. Then there's the example effect: China and India are simply more prominent in the world, leading others outside to collect these countries as well.

The Classics of these countries always had a following, and so weren't cheap. But the addition of a just a few new collectors has put a rocket under the prices of the Classics. And here is where I come in: when I took up the Indian States back in the 1950s, noone in their right mind collected them. The Classics had a limited following, it's true, but they were generally despised. This stamp of Jammu & Kashmir



(SG 3 - the 1 Anna royal blue watercolour on native paper of 1967)

was catalogued at £450 in 1984. By 1998, it had stretched to £550, essentially on the strength of non-Indian demand from collectors of the Classics. In 2002, it had reached £600, and then it took off. Today, it's a £2,000 stamp - if you can find one.

Prices for the good stuff go up, pretty well regardless. Prices of the common stuff stay common, pretty well regardless. Some prices of good stuff will go up faster than others, but if you ask me which I'd prefer, $1000 worth of mint recent Australian commemoratives or an equivalent value of, say, early Guatemala covers, the answer's obvious to me.

Of course, I've been using prices as a proxy for interest, but I can't think of a better one.

It's also true that 450 pounds in 1984 is about 1260 pounds today, and in terms of relative income is about 1950 pounds (you would have to work enough hours to earn 1950 today to equal the number of hours needed in 1984 to earn 450), so it actually hasn't gone up as much as it seems at first glance. All a country of area really needs to become popular is 3 or 4 serious collectors with real money, and they will often drag along a lot of interested collectors with less funds to buy the more readily available material. Especially if a couple of the top people start exhibiting regularly.

Revcollector, you reinforce my point about fashion - unless you choose to consider inflation since 2002, when that Jammu & Kashmir began to move.

However, take a considerably less lofty stamp: this Cochin SG 76, the 1942 3 Pies surcharge on 1 Anna 8 Pies:



In 1984, Gibbons priced it at £3; by 1998, it had dropped to £2; from 2002, when it was £2.75, it's risen to the lofty heights of £13 - and that all without a few well-healed collectors fighting for it.

I could go on and on, over all the price points, if anyone else needs convincing.

Cuba has had "peaceful times" for fifty years, aside from botched assassination attempts on Fidel and a botched invasion. And Cuban stamps have been accessible to most of the world during that period. Don't see a surge there.

Very nice thread with great opening questions and well-stated responses. Thanks for participating. I am not a trend kind of person so I can't contribute, but I enjoy reading this.

Cuba has had peaceful times but it's a poor country unlikely to have a serious collector base at home. The political situation also means that many expatriate Cubans are not going to be currently interested in the stamps. For most current countries a home collector base is needed to produce real popularity, especially since one of the most likely collector bases has been essentially cut off for the last 50 years.

Having my living depend on my ability to understand trends and profit by it ,gives me a unparell advantage over all of you combine .-----I traded trends for years ,matter in fact my whole trading experience is trend trading .
But your here about stamps not the Bond market or the Silver market which I posted about on National Market Research sites . So lets see about trends in stamps .
The first thing you need to understand about price trends is ----IF IT IS GONING UP IT CAN GO HIGHER ,IF IT IS GOING DOWN IT CAN GO DOWN MORE . ---some how more people don't follow that rule .
What can go higher in the stamp market ?
Easy to answer -----more people are collecting the cheap stamps that fit the pre-1940 classics International Albums . More interest is in the WWI stuff that's because of the 100 th. anniversey . The trend for low price stamps is strong ,people are buying the $5.00 to $200.00 stamps are selling better and at a higher price percentage wise than what you see for that $5,000 item that is stuggling for a $500.00 bid . Big ticket items are now taking a beating at the major auction houses .
What is hot and what you should be doing now is the research and making very specialized studies and mounting and writing it up on pages . They sell well and are getting good prices .As a example if you make up a few pages of cheap stamps but all the perforation varities that you can find at .20 each and mount 50 or 100 on pages ,at auction those pages can realize a double in cost or even $100.00 or more .
So my advice is take a cheap stamp, study the types and varities ,then mount it, to write up the study .----------I got a collection of Brazilian watermarks ,that is filled with cheap stamps but I wouldn't let it go for $500.00 it is that unusal and seen lesser studies go for more .
My advice is to enjoy the hunt and study of your stamps and not to get caught up in the buy and hold mentality of a investor .