Stamp Market Low?

I am getting back into stamp collecting after a 10+ year absence and I was really amazed by the price drops since the 1990's - early 2000's.

Does the community think we are witnessing a historic low in stamp values - or will prices continue to decrease at a similar rate into the future?

You are correct ,prices are falling and their is a huge void between the investment grade material and top quality material which seems to be holding steady and the bottom feeders who you see on ebay . So what you got are the top blue chips collectors holding their own and the steady market of the penny a stamp crowd . The middle range collector is disappearing causing prices to tumble to lower levels .

The drop in prices is consistent with the economy. If you follow Antique Roadshow's "then and now" episodes, where they compare valuations made on antiques a decade earlier with today's valuation, you will see about 40% of the old valuation are now less or significantly less than 10 years ago.

ashuber like anything else, it depends on what area you collect. The prices for early British Commonwealth, Germany, China, etc. are healthier than ever. Prices for more common material, which is being dumped in great quantities thanks to internet sales, are being reflected at their actual (instead of catalog) collector value.

It may be a function of a sketch economy, but its also the fact there there are fewer philatelists these days.

Jack Kelley

Six and one half years of war on the middle class will have an effect.

I've heard grumblings from the trade that AR's valuations were always very generous, so I've interpreted the drops as more a matter of AR needing to correct their more ridiculous valuations (especially as they are so much more easily contradicted nowadays) versus a broad decline in the market, but that's me.

As to prices in our part of the collectibles world, I think the big driver is the explosion in the number of sellers. Time was, you took your duplicates to your local dealer, got offended by his offer, and buried your unsold unsellables in a stock book.

Now, all of those stamps can come to market, and the P2P nature of internet auction sales makes that same low price less of a personal insult and, therefor, easier to take.

So, buy prices may always have been that low for most material, but the dealers' offers were less visible, while the internet auction results are public.

My 2c.

Cheers,

Good points made already. I'd also add that the ease of buying and selling stamps in the Internet Era has also put downward pricing pressure on stamps. It used to be if you had duplicate stamps that were worth much of anything (relative to you as an individual), you had to get in your car and take it to a local dealer who would make you an offer, or maybe you could find someone who wanted that item at your local stamp club. Your options were limited and they required a certain amount of effort, and the monetary returns would probably be relatively low. As a result, a lot of middle-grade, middle-value stamps sat in collectors' duplicate piles gathering dust.

With ebay and other online sites, you can now advertise your stamp to the entire world. The net effect of this is that a lot of middling material has come out of the woodwork, so to speak. It's also much easier to shop and compare now. Whereas before you might have had a handful of printed dealers' price lists to compare, now you can compare dozens of different options within minutes, usually including pictures. A prospective seller has to be aggressive on his pricing or he won't sell much, as it's just too easy for buyers to shop around for a lower price.

Unless one is looking at stamps as an investment vehicle or at least as a store of value, low prices aren't a problem, per se. If one collects stamps for their own sake, low prices are a good thing.

Agree with Ikey and AH, the transformation of retail brought about by the internet has dramatically altered the nature of the business of selling most collectibles. The -meat & potatoes- stamps of middle value are now available for purchase just a few key strokes away for any collector with an internet connection, and the rise philatelic marketplaces such as Delcampe, Stamps2Go, ZillionsOfStamps and until recently Bidstart, never mind the goliath of ebay, means there are plenty of venues for part-time dealers or even just the collector wanting to sell duplicates to offer their wares. More sellers equal lower prices on all except the truly blue chip philatelic items that are in short supply for the demand that exists for an item. Will values on these items recover? Hard to say considering quantities of most stamps issued in the period between say 1935 and 1995 were huge and large amounts were saved (perhaps should say hoarded) at the time. But if you look at values for issues from the period after 1995, especially those issues with low printing runs of a popular topical nature, values already are well above face value and do seem to continually rise each year.

Long term this overall development is good for the hobby I think in that it makes it easier for collectors to not just complete collections at lower cost, but more easily find new material to whet their interest. With tech-savvy baby boomers beginning to retire now, combined with expanding collector communities in non-Western societies and to me it seems a growing number of under-50s also dipping their toes into the hobby, I think philately is on the edge of a new era of expansion. Some of the old structures that shaped the hobby - local stamp clubs, brick & mortar dealers, regional bourses - are probably on the way out, but they are being replaced by interconnected doppelgangers that perform the same kind of tasks in the new digital form.

I agree with DJCMHOH that the ease of buying and selling is a good thing. Collectors buy their stamps for less, and collectors selling extra stamps get more for them than they would from a dealer, so it's a win-win for collectors. The only thing that scares me about this is the long term prospects for professional, full time dealers. Full time dealers handle a lot of material and become some of the most trusted experts in their fields. They're seeing dozens of examples of stamps that a collector might see one or two of in their lifetime. I think if everything went to collector-to-collector sales, a lot of knowledge would be lost and the potential for ending up with bad material becomes a lot higher. There will always be some full time dealers, of course, but they could become a dying breed, which I think would be a loss for the hobby.

The ease of buying and selling also depends on a trustworthy, efficient and inexpensive postal system. The three factors are not guaranteed for the future.

Everyone here has made great points to this discussion. Personally I am really happy for the lower prices. I enjoy stamps and anything that makes it easier for me to complete a set is a plus for me. I have also been surprised at some good prices I have gotten for duplicate material on ebay. You never know what some people will buy. It may take a month or two but I've been able to sell my excess stamps and covers at mostly very good prices.

Todays email from Bill Barrel (UK)

I havn't purchased a great deal from Bill, but when I have, he has been a real gentleman.

Dear Rod,

MARKET REPORT

It seems everywhere I go I am asked about Brexit, Trump and the stamp market - here is perhaps not the place to discuss the first two but a few thoughts on the stamp market. 2016 has been one of our most successful trading years to date and the demand for interesting GB items continues to increase. However we undoubtedly have a declining collector base ( as it seems do most collectable markets) accompanied by uncertain economic and trading times - so why such a strong market ? The 'baby boomers' are of course a very strong collector base but I am finding interest from many people not in this socio-economic group. People with a 'bit of spare money' each month wanting something tangible/cultural/'real' in an increasingly media driven world of images and promises. Stamps and covers can be touched, studied, discussed, and exhibited both on a very personal level but also on a social level.
The demand for good clean postal history from most reigns (King Edward VII is quiet - presumably because many collectors look back to their childhood issues), fine line- engraved, cancellations, usages in fact ..... 'anything that tells a story' ..... is in demand.

In this digital age it is a paradox that the demand for philatelic books continues to increase as collectors seek to learn about their world from the written word rather than the computer screen, we receive many orders from new clients all over the world. For instance our stock of the 'Brown Fisher' plating books on the GB 1d value has never been lower - and this is not an easy plating concept but demands time and patience - two aspects often missing in this fast age we inhabit. Now it could be that Bill Barrell Ltd is bucking the trend, I cannot comment on that. To succeed in philatelic retailing I think you need three things - product knowledge - a strong work ethic and an ability to get on with people - tick those boxes and whilst the journey may also need financial resources it should be rewarding. Our website continues to attract many orders, our illustrated lists are admired and recognised internationally, create much business whilst our very frequent attendance at many stamp shows - both national and international enhances our presence. I was at a show in Bolton recently and one dealer told me of a show in Manchester in the 1980's ? when doors had to be locked due to an attendance of 1100 people ! - those times have clearly gone but there is still much to be positive about concerning the future of our hobby.

I think this is as much due to the lack of this information being available via an internet format than collectors simply wanting the written word. This is one area I really think organizations such as the American Philatelic Society could take a lead. The Research Library is an amazing resource, but what if that information was available to collectors with just a click of a link on the APRL website rather than have to depend on interlibrary loan.

A lot of good points, although I wouldn't say that the Germany market is healthy as one person indicated. Just the opposite.

I think part of the decline in prices is by cutting out the middle man, you also cut out the person that has the incentive to keep prices high. Collectors selling their duplicates directly to other collector do not have the incentive to hold out for the best price. Dealers would hold onto material until they get the price they feel an item is worth. Dealers would also look for the best venue to sell the material. A collector is mostly trying to get rid of duplicates, and will take a lower amount to get rid of the material quickly.