Stamp Market Low?

I am not even sure that we are all on the same page when we use the term 'grade'. Is it just stamp design centering or does it include the overall stamp condition? And if it includes stamp condition (and I think it should), then we have a new issue.

What is the 'shelf life' of the grade? Obviously the grade is applicable only as long as the stamp remains unchanged (hence why they tried to promote slabbed stamps). Rough handling or other improper storage can cause the grade/condition to be impacted. For example, do some perf damage while putting the stamp in a mount and the grade no longer applies.

Ditto on certs. These paid opinions may be incorrect or the body of available knowledge increases over time and makes the original cert invalid. And of course as technology advances it can also make older opinions obsolete.

But you don't see much written about the 'shelf life' of a grade or certification. Is it every 3 years? 5 years? 10 years? I assume the people who charge for these services don't want us to think that what we are paying for is ephemeral and might only be good for a relatively short period of time.
Don
APS #094826

Grading driving prices up?

It certainly is on those stamps that are getting high grades. I hope those people paying the big bucks for a grade 100J stamp are having a wonderful time chasing down "perfect" copy of a stamp.

I've looked at lots of old collections. They are filled with stamps with straight edges, poor centering, no gum, etc. And those collectors had a great time putting those collections together.

Personally, I am somewhere in between. I'm looking for sound copies of used US stamps. I upgrade,when I can, to the nicest copies that come my way. Maybe I have some that will grade high, but I'm not paying to have them graded; so I'll ever know. I go though those old collections described above, and still find gems that go in my collection. I don't begrudge those who pay big bucks for their "perfect" stamps, nor do I look down on the collections full of stamps in poorer condition. There is room for all of us.

Sorry. I am just not into highly graded stamps. Going back to ASHuber's initial post, I would have to say that the decline has allowed me to purchase stamps I never thought possible. Like the Zeps MNH. Like him, I came back into the hobby a a good time.

Jack Kelley

slub:

My words are clear and speak for themselves. No further explanation is necessary.

Long ago, I stopped paying attention to all those terms "FVF," "GEM," "LUXUS," grades, etc., in dealers' stamp description. Many sellers call utter garbage, woefully damaged stamps "Very Fine," without shame. Certificates can be wrong (sometimes). Experts' signatures can be easily forged, so "signed" is not a guarantee of anything yet.

Your own experience and judgement are the key factors here, as well as anywhere else in life. On the stamp market, as anywhere else in life, you are being cheated, this or another way, 80% of the time. Just take it into account as something inevitable within human transactions, like a law of physics.

Comparison is important. Even if you don't have many examples of the same stamp available, now you can see lots of images of the same stamp on the web, and make your own conclusions. Believe your own eyes!

The question "Is the stamp market up or down" is basically meaningless, because it is far too broad a question.
Since the beginning of collecting, some areas are very strong, and some are very weak, and most are a mixture of both depending on exactly what specific are of philatelic items are being discussed. Although some countries or areas have always been popular, overall popularity changes with time. Historically this has never had anything to do with politics or the overall economic situation. Arthur Hind had one of the great collections ever, and it sold to record prices at the height of the depression, a MUCH worse economic situation then is current today.
And there is nothing new about dealers and other sellers puffing their stamps; it used to be in magazine ads and now it's online. There is nothing new about people selling fake, damaged or altered stamps either, only that the net makes the world smaller in philately as in everywhere else.
Anyone who feels they are being cheated 80% of the time needs to find a new hobby; clearly they are either incapable or disinterested in learning enough to avoid this.

Learning enough to avoid the 80% cheating is what I advise.
It doesn't remove the fact that this cheating exists; it's not a "feeling," it is a fact.

I suggest you read my statement again. I did not say cheating is a "feeling". I said "Anyone who feels they are being cheated 80% of the time needs to find a new hobby; clearly they are either incapable or disinterested in learning enough to avoid this". As I said, there has always been cheating. However calling 80% cheating a "fact" does not make it so. There are 100% honest dealers and 100% dishonest dealers, but there is no realistic way to put a specific percentage on the amount of cheating which might of might not be occurring at any point in time.

My "specific percentage" comes from the old adage: 80/20.
Everything said or done on this planet roughly obeys this rule.

I did once a statistical experiment on ebay, though. I looked, after a random, generalized search of classic stamps (I've chosen 1870s, worldwide), at 100 examples of various stamps offered for sale, labeled as "Very Fine." Only 2 of these stamps would satisfy the Scott catalog definition of "very fine." European catalogs are usually stricter on this subject.

So, my empirical result was 98% cheating in that particular case. I invite you to try the same experiment, before you "feel" again that facts are not to your liking.

P.S. You are playing semantic games, revcollector.

Being "cheated" doesn't mean, in this context, buying a stamp, and only then realizing that you have been had. It means, rather, to observe and to recognize an attempt to mislead you. Which is a very different from what you are trying to imply by intentionally distorting the obvious meaning of my words.

That is the total answer, in my opinion. The internet has opened up and improved the stamp collecting industry. Before the internet, your supply and variety was so limited. Now, you can buy what you want. It is out there and for sale. From the cheap stuff to the expensive stuff. Prices dropped because of competition. There are a lot of stamps being sold on ebay daily. Prices are low so demand is high. If prices rise, demand will fall. The same amount of money will go into the market but for less material.

I love it. I have been able to buy stamps I could not have ever owned before. The downfall of the market is the new stamps. The governments are sucking up the stamp collector funds. They are making stamps that they have no need of for postage just to get the collector's money. That is why I put a cap on what years to buy. I would rather use my limited funds to buy older material.

Rick

To tvorog:

I think what revcollector is getting at is that you are trying to state as fact that which depends entirely on your level of experise or the areas you collect.

Furthermore, grading is entirely subjective and certain buyers and sellers grade more strictly than others. 99.999993% of sellers might be guilty of "cheating" by YOUR criteria, but that doesn't mean that others will feel the same.

Frankly, the number of sellers "cheating" eaither intentionally or unintentionally is IMO meaningless, as each listing stands or falls on its own merits. I see countless ebay listings on a daily basis that are misdescribed, overgraded, or overpriced. But that doesn't matter, as one simply hits the back button and moves on to the next.

Lest anyone think this disease is solely an online affliction or one that only impacts amateur sellers, I can tell you that so-called "professional" dealers at national shows engage in the same practices, in some cases as egregious as some of the worst offenders online. It's also not a recent development... there have been charlatans since time began.

Neither old adages nor one random look in one specific area comes close to being scientific proof of anything. And observing a listing that might involve cheating is not remotely the same as being cheated. That is not semantics, that is a factual difference.

"The only thing that scares me about this is the long term prospects for professional, full time dealers. Full time dealers handle a lot of material and become some of the most trusted experts in their fields. They're seeing dozens of examples of stamps that a collector might see one or two of in their lifetime. I think if everything went to collector-to-collector sales, a lot of knowledge would be lost and the potential for ending up with bad material becomes a lot higher. There will always be some full time dealers, of course, but they could become a dying breed, which I think would be a loss for the hobby."

Agree

"The problem with so many listings of the same material ,you get what I call the "race to the bottom" each new seller who wants his material to sell, lowers his price below the previous offers"

Agree.

For those that are thrilled with buying at lower prices, remember you will later be selling at lower prices.