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Feeding Frenzy In Australia Over The 2016 30c Provisionals

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Pillar Of The Community

United States
772 Posts
Posted 01/29/2016   5:04 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this topic Add DJCMHOH to your friends list Get a Link to this Message
Earlier this week I posted over in the Global post-1940 subforum about the set of six 30-ct provisionals produced in Adelaide in early January due to a lack of 30-ct make up rate stamps for customers in wake of the price hike in basic postal rates from Au$0.70 to Au$1.00

That thread, with image of the two sets I purchased, is at https://goscf.com/t/47586

Since then news of the existence of the provisionals has broken in the Australian mainstream media :

From the Sydney Morning Hearld :

http://www.smh.com.au/national/rare...xzz3yVhhI4Rd


Quote:
"Want to turn 30 cents into $500 or more in just three weeks? It's very simple: just stand by your post box and wait.
The catch is you will have to be very, very lucky - and have friends in Adelaide.

Australians will have noticed that in 2016 it now costs $1 to post a standard letter, up from 70 cents last year. But even Australia Post wasn't completely ready for the change, so on January 4 the Adelaide GPO cranked up an old printing machine and quietly produced an "emergency" run of 30 cent stamps to allow the public to make up the difference between the old rate and the new.
These six counter produced stamps (three depicting kangaroos, three koalas and all marked "Adelaide 2016") are plain looking, but very special.

They were produced in very small numbers at the Adelaide GPO. They were only sold at a few South Australian suburban post offices for three or four days, until the supply shortage was overcome with the regular 30 cent "Crocodile" design stamps printed in their millions in Melbourne.

On top of that, this is the first time since Federation that Australia's postal issuing authority has released emergency printed stamps. Members of Stampboards.com, the website for the stamp collecting community where the emergency printing was revealed on 18 January, believe that whatever supplies each post office had are now long gone.

So the hunt has begun in the wild for mint versions of the stamps, but also those used on letters. Across the global stamp collecting community, it is what you might term a frenzy.

When one set of all six stamps appeared on ebay last week, the price rapidly rose. With a combined face value of just $1.80, they soon vaulted over $200, then $400 before finally settling on an astounding $1,051.11 as two bidders fought it out to the end.
A letter with a 30 cent stamp next to a normal 70 cent stamp, sent to the Adelaide suburb of Salisbury Heights, is expected to easily exceed $500 by the time the online auction finishes this Sunday.
Any Australian could be a winner; an unknown quantity of the rare stamps were sold to people who simply wanted to use them to post a letter at the new $1 rate. And those letters have now arrived in Australian homes or are on their way.

A prominent Sydney stamp dealer, Glen Stephens, managed to source
multiple sets of six of the unused stamps from an Adelaide collector, which he readily sold even as the price rapidly went up to $550.

One stamp collector fanatic managed to overcome not actually being on the planet to buy a set from Mr Stephens - he's the Russian cosmonaut presently circling the Earth commanding the International Space Station.

Another veteran stamp dealer, Rodney Perry, who specialises in complete letters (or "commercial covers" as they are known), said on Stampboards.com he believes this is where the real value will be, especially for any letters posted on or around the first possible date of January 6. He termed this issue "a modern rarity".

This is not the first time stamps have been printed in a rush to meet demand. The most celebrated case is the British Guiana 1 cent Magenta, locally produced in Georgetown in 1856 because the ship that was meant to bring stamps from Britain did not arrive.
Like the 30 cent Adelaide stamps of 2016, the key is that it was also an official product carrying the imprimatur of the local postmaster. That 1 cent stamp is the only one of its kind to survive and in 2014 was sold in Sothebys for a world record $US9.5 million.

An Australia Post spokesman said they were aware of the sudden interest in the 30 cent stamp, and while there have been recent requests for these to be reprinted, there is now no need and this will not occur."


Current ebay Australia auctions have mint sets of six with maximum bids of between Au$450.00 to Au$1025 [~US$300 to US$700], and one auction with a mint set with an extra single, so 7 stamps, at Au$1675.00 [~US$1175.00] while covers with used singles and clear datestamps are running in the Au$150-400 [US$100-US$275] range depending on quality and clarity of the cancel. Most of these auctions are still ongoing with 4 or more days left until they close. It is definitely becoming quite a frenzy in Australia as collectors and, most likely, speculators, are going after what likely will be the most valuable Australian set of the 2010s.

As I said in the other thread, I was very lucky to take a risk and bought two sets when information about this issue first came to notice, and I can safely say this is the most financially rewarding philatelic purchase I have ever made. One set is staying in my permanent Australia collection, the other is being set aside for a rainy day once the initial euphoria of the discovery of the issue calms down and the marketplace figures out what the value for the mint set of six will be.

I do know one thing, this will be one of the biggest stories of 2016 for philately, and it will be interesting to see how the market for this set evolves.
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APS #173088
Edited by DJCMHOH - 01/29/2016 5:08 pm

Pillar Of The Community
Norway
1661 Posts
Posted 01/29/2016   5:19 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Blaamand to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
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Pillar Of The Community
United States
772 Posts
Posted 01/29/2016   5:40 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add DJCMHOH to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
And Linn's has just posted its article on the issue, and the growing market frenzy

http://www.linns.com/news/world-sta...on-ebay.html
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APS #173088
Valued Member
United States
466 Posts
Posted 01/29/2016   7:54 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Crouse27 to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Very cool! Who wouldn't want a set given the story's romanticism? I predict catalog values will continue to move higher. Upright Jenny sheets selling at $50K and there are supposedly 100 of those contrived items.
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Pillar Of The Community
United States
772 Posts
Posted 01/31/2016   10:02 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add DJCMHOH to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
And the market frenzy is gaining force. Here is an update on several ebay auctions for the stamps currently in progress. Note Au$1.00 = ~US$0.70 so Au$1000.00 is US$700.00 approximately.

Set in two se-tenant strips of 3 at Au$611.00 with 2 days to go : http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Australi...191795543574

At Au$1050.00 with 2 1/2 days to go : http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Australi...151966683778

At Au$930.00 with 3 days to go : http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/30-cent-...321991500447

At Au$1725.00 with almost 4 days to go : http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Australi...272118562126

At Au$1025.00 with a bit more than 4 days to go : http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Australi...272118834944

At Au$800.00 with 5 days to go : http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/30-CENT-...NUARY-STAMPS

Short set of 5 out of 6 stamps at A$200 with 6 days to go : http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/AUSTRALI...351643000474

At Au$500 with almost 7 days to go http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Rare-Set...182009225230

At Au$700.00 with almost 8 days to go : http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Adelaide...182007268691

prices seem to be all over the board atm, but as the first auctions close in a couple days there will probably be some massive sniping at the end that could push a lot of these auctions a lot higher.

Stay tuned....this ride is gonna get crazy!
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APS #173088
Edited by DJCMHOH - 01/31/2016 10:38 pm
Pillar Of The Community
Canada
5821 Posts
Posted 01/31/2016   10:40 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add lithograving to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I read about this when it first appeared on
Stampboards on January 18 .

What a thrill for the few lucky ones who scored
them at some Adelaide post office.

This is good for stamp collecting in general
I believe.
A little greed is good for the hobby.
As long as stamps are still being issued, bought
and used for postage there is hope for the hobby.

We in Canada of course had the $1.20 Dinosaur "Hoodoos"
error and reprint last year.
I'm still peeved about that though since I usually
buy souvenir sheets with the international denomination
for postage for my mail to Europe.
I went to my local Post Office two days after issue
and they told me they didn't get the SS which is nothing
new at that place.

Later in the week when I went to the Shoppers Drug Mart
post office,the clerk said she had them but they
had to send the SS and $1.20 booklets back.

Out of luck again.

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Pillar Of The Community
1515 Posts
Posted 02/01/2016   02:39 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Jenny2U to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I'm curious how much they'll be worth in 12 month's time as more and more of these issues come to light.
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United States
12330 Posts
Posted 02/01/2016   05:22 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add 51studebaker to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Wasn't there previous history with some dealers who used 'pump and dump' marketing tactics with some Australian issues a few years back? If so, are some of the same personalities involved now? (I don't mean DJCMHOH.)
Don
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Edited by 51studebaker - 02/01/2016 05:23 am
Pillar Of The Community
United States
8420 Posts
Posted 02/01/2016   09:06 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add floortrader to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
JENNY2U and 51studebaker ------I did a search of Australian Counter Printed Stamps ,these are collector who collect this stuff. I am happy to report very very few , so the supply of these recent issues are about 100 to 200 X the necessary supply . Most Australian stamp collectors don't even bother with all the recent stuff .
So this comes down to a feeding frenzy of getting the stamp to sell to a bigger idiot ,this is the old Ponzi game of the "BURNING MATCH " pass it around to someone else before you get your fingers burned .
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Rest in Peace
United States
4052 Posts
Posted 02/01/2016   09:26 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add ikeyPikey to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
While a provisional does not have the broad appeal of an error - you have to explain what it is, for example - I would think that there are enough all-Commonwealth collectors & provisionals collectors around the globe to easily sustain a price north of the current bid range of U$D 500-1000.

Q/ Still no word on the total number printed, or have I just missed it?

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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Pillar Of The Community
1515 Posts
Posted 02/01/2016   09:30 am  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add Jenny2U to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I think it was reported that 2,500 were printed.
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Pillar Of The Community
United States
772 Posts
Posted 02/01/2016   4:11 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add DJCMHOH to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Floortrader, how in the devil do you see this as a Ponzi scheme? The base printing might have been on a Computer Value Printed Stamp but they were produced as a bonafide emergency temporary release in Adelaide to meet a shortage of regular 30-cent stamps, and were sold to the public for less than 72 hours. This isn't some gimmick issue thought of by some marketing guru at Australia Post. Best estimates are that 2500 sets were printed in total at the GPO in Adelaide and distributed to retail branches in the metro Adelaide region starting on 5 Jan, and lasting until the arrival of new stock of regular 30-cent definitives from the main production center in Melbourne on the 8th of January. The stamps were sold only in strips of 5 or 10, over the counter only. Of the 2500 sets of six, the vast majority were sold to ordinary consumers, not collectors. In fact outside a few collectors in Adelaide who made the initial discovery, no one knew of the existence of these provisionals until news broke on the stampboards forum on Sunday 17th January, and then it took a good week for news to begin filtering out to the masses. The first set to be sold on ebay was sold on Sunday 24 Jan, and since then less than two dozen sets have been offered for sale on various auction sites. It is probably going to take a few weeks for the market to settle, but estimates I have seen on stampboards suggest that perhaps a couple hundred full mint sets may still exist, and that may be a generous estimate. Several covers, some regular commercial mail, some philatelic, are also coming into the marketplace and the commercial covers with clear dates are generating winning bids in the Au$400-Au$700 range the last time I checked.

Calling the market being generated around this issue a Ponzi scheme just seems to be a very inaccurate conclusion to make, given the circumstances of how this issue came about and entered the public marketplace in the first place. Even if all 2500 sets printed were sold to the philatelic marketplace, that would likely not meet demand coming not just from collectors of contemporary Australian stamps, but the large number of topical collectors of Australiana, Koalas, Kangaroos and general fauna that exist as well.

Like I said, the next few months will be very interesting to watch and see how this marketplace evolves.
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APS #173088
Rest in Peace
United States
4052 Posts
Posted 02/01/2016   5:14 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add ikeyPikey to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Perhaps floortrader mis-spoke, keying 'Ponzi scheme' (the principal of new investors is distributed as "income" to old investors) (a very specific arrangement) when he meant 'self-correcting asset bubble' (as with the Tulips, when new bulbs kept coming to market until the prices broke).

As I've suggested, I disagree, and suspect that there are more than enough end-user-buyers (collectors buying to keep) to support the kinds of prices we've seen so far.

<good_advice> If you wanna bet, don't bet on me. </good_advice>

The PNG surcharges are probably an awful comparison - genuine collector interest being so narrow - but whatever happened to these?

http://www.linns.com/news/world-sta...w-rates.html ... Papua New Guinea surcharges appear in 2014-15 for new rates

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey
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Pillar Of The Community
United States
8420 Posts
Posted 02/01/2016   6:16 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add floortrader to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
I can't believe we still have people here ,who can't read what is written .-------read my posting correctly please !!-------How in the world did you read "PONZI SCHEME" when I am talking about the "BURNING MATCH" which is a popular PONZI GAME of selling something higher and higher until the last person gets burned due to their greed and desire to sell it even higher and is left holding a rapidly price falling commodity .
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Pillar Of The Community
United States
772 Posts
Posted 02/01/2016   9:27 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add DJCMHOH to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
So what exactly is the difference, other than semantic, between "Ponzi Game" and "Ponzi Scheme" - they both involve selling something at higher prices even though the original item does not have the value to sustain the increased valuation. The idea of the "Game" involving the "Burning Match" evolved from the original Ponzi Scheme of the 1920s.

In any case no use getting caught up over semantics, I don't think in this case this issue can be labelled as something that lacks the inherent value to sustain the market prices which are currently selling for in online auctions. The market is still of course in its infancy, we won't know for several months how many full mint sets of six, how many commercial covers with clear date stamps denoting use within period, and how many philatelic covers exist for this issue, but if the original print run was approx 2500 sets, and most were sold to the general public with little awareness among the philatelic community of the issue's existence until well after it had been removed from sale, then the likelihood is that the numbers will be fairly small in comparison to the market for such material (collectors of Australia, topical collectors of Australiana, Koalas, Kangaroos, collectors of modern postal history, etc). I think it more likely that we are seeing what will become the "floor" of the market value for the sets being determined and from there as awareness of the issue grows among the global philatelic community the market forces of supply and demand will work their ways to determining a fair market value over the next several months.
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APS #173088
Pillar Of The Community
United States
772 Posts
Posted 02/01/2016   10:10 pm  Show Profile Bookmark this reply Add DJCMHOH to your friends list  Get a Link to this Reply
Update on some of the current auctions for mint sets on ebay :

Set in two se-tenant strips of 3 at Au$910.00 with 26 hours to go : http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Australi...191795543574

Currently at Au$1545.00 with 1 1/2 days to go : http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Australi...151966683778

At Au$940.00 with 2 days to go : http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/30-cent-...321991500447

The Big one : 5 complete sets and bakers dozen of singles : Currently at Au$5105.00 with 2 days to go http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Aust-Sta...121881739813

Still at Au$1725.00 with almost 3 days to go : http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Australi...272118562126

Still at Au$1025.00 with a bit more than 3 days to go : http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Australi...272118834944

Set of 6 in two setenant strips of 3, still at Au$800.00 with 4 days to go : http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/30-CENT-...111890262769

Short set of 5 out of 6 stamps still at Au$200 with 5 days to go : http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/AUSTRALI...351643000474

Still Au$500 with almost 6 days to go http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Rare-Set...182009225230

Still at Au$700.00 with almost 7 days to go : http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Adelaide...182007268691

Some new listings

Complete set of six singles, at Au$720.00 with 3 days to go : http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Rare-Set...182007115097

Se-tenant strip of 6 mint, currently at Au$511.00 with 4 days to go : http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Australi...151969507167

Set of 8 singles, includes one complete set and two extras, at Au$1700.00 with 6 days to go : http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Australi...111892215083

And a BIN set of six for Au$1999.00 (two available) : http://www.ebay.com.au/itm/Australi...262270421544

By my count that makes 17 sets available on ebay.au currently. Will be interesting to see what the initial auctions ending Weds AM EAST/Tues PM EST North America bring.
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