Pivot Point In The Hobby , This May And June 2016 .

This posting is directed to those old timers and serious collectors who have in the past and still continue to spend serious money on the hobby of stamp collecting .
It has started this week with a few pre-New York Show stamp auctions and the many stamp auctions at the show ,plus a few firms have listed major stamp auctions right after the big show . This time period of May and June is going to give us direction and a insight to the strength of the hobby . If we see low prices and a lack of aggressive bidding not only on the gems of philately but all the country collections and bulk lots then were going to be seeing the reduction of the collectors market .
First a little background about the money . In the last few months we have seen 40 Billion dollars pulled out of Hedge Funds and Equity Funds ,this vast amount of money is parked on the sidelines, it didn't go into real estate ,gold or into Bonds. It is just sitting on the side . A lot of this money is from Europe. So it is going to be interesting to see if a very ,very small amount is going to be attrached to the collectiable market place especially stamps .
On the subject of ebay sellers coming into this auction market place to support prices in the auction market ,I don't believe they are getting aggressive buying for their material, too much of their stuff is getting low bids or sits for weeks before a buyer is found ,but I may be wrong and they can come out of the woodwork and push auction prices higher .
Stamp Dealers have been loading up for a year and purchased a lot of material or cut deals with big collectors to stock up for the show in New York but if the Show turns into a bust of lack of collector buying then the heavy selling will begin after the May -June period.
THIS WILL BE A INTERESTING PERIOD for pricing ......as for me ,I sold out of the stock market ,but still holding precious metals and T-Bonds and other Treasuries , I am sitting on the side lines waiting to buy some serious collections especially well written material and unusual stuff mounted on pages .

Interesting post!

Maybe so, maybe no. I do agree that European interests have been active here in the USA. At last year's Rocky Mountain Stamp Show, a dealer I know who had been at WestPex a few weeks before said bidding was brisk on a lot of single items and collections due to Europeans and/or their agents. Don & Pat skipped this year's RMSS, so I didn't go. I did check this year's WestPex auction, for a few countries, and it seems to be a mixed bag, lot of good, non-US stuff, not selling. In particular, the KG V Rhodesian double heads have been popular, but a number in Rumsey's auction did not sell. Rumsey has an auction planned for the New York show and yesterday I got Kelleher's catalog for their auction in New York City. Lot of good foreign stuff in the Kelleher catalog. Not sure that I'll bid as I don't want to pay inflated prices, especially with an 18% buyer's premium.

I did not place any bids in Kelleher's collections auction this weekend. Will bid on a couple of things in Rasdale's auction next weekend.

Can't really comment on ebay. Couple months ago, hit a number of British colonial countries on the APS Stamp Store just to check the pricing. Lot of stuff is not moving there; but that should be expected when guys are pricing their stuff at 80%, or higher, of Scott catalog. I agree it will be interesting to see results of the auctions at NY 2016.

I have no idea where the "money sitting on the side," whether it belongs to the original poster or Europeans, will find sufficient, reliable, measurable data to determine whether to move a fraction of money into stamps. If anything, only the top, top segment of buyers will benefit, and what stamps to buy will be a crapshoot. Richard Lehmann, writing in the May 2016 "American Stamp Dealer & Collector," contends that a $12 million hypothetical portfolio of US stamps priced $1,000 and higher (with a whopping 78% of the basket priced $25,000 and higher) showed 5 and 10 year appreciation of 16% and 169% respectively. Meanwhile a seasoned collector of worldwide stamps on another forum is reporting that a comparison of Scott worldwide catalog values for 2015 and 2017 editions, across thousands of stamps, shows basically flat values and many reduced values. Auction results might give you a tidbit for that auction, such as the observation below about KGV Rhodesian double heads. But having noted good performance of that class of stamps in one auction, will you really be able to find the same material elsewhere when you want it, and can you ever fit that data into a trend that is the sound basis of an investment decision? Lehman never discloses all items in his hypothetical baskets, he carefully shields that information. Has anyone ever conducted a long-term, market-based pricing study for a fully-disclosed basket of stamps, and what were the results? In other words, whatever generalized sales results can be obtained from the New York show or auctions held in May or June, whether up or down, will they really tell us anything about long-term performance? They will just be single bits of data that can't be fit into any economically rigorous data about trends.

Is the original poster talking about a pivotal point in the US philately or a pivotal point in world philately. In my opinion what happens in New York in May or June will have no influence in either,

Pagoda

The DJI was at 11168 on 01/May/2006, which works out to a 157% price gain.

Never mind that many of those stocks paid cash dividends.

https://goscf.com/t/38527 ... The Investment Meme Must Die

As to current events, so many major auctions at an every-ten-year event means that there will be plenty of new price data, but in addition to 'upturn' and 'downturn', the list of potential outcomes must include 'muddle'.

Consider the possibilities for just the much-discussed Chinese money:

- economic conditions in China improve, swelling cash balances looking to leave China;

- economic conditions in China improve, so that cash flows to investment opportunities inside China;

- economic conditions in China decline, shrinking the cash balances available to leave China;

- economic conditions in China decline, so that cash flows to investment opportunities outside China;

- the PRC cracks down on the outflow of capital from China;

- the PRC really cracks down hard on the outflow of capital from China.

And we are to read the prices realized at WSSNY-2016 and conclude what, exactly?

Yes, WSSNY-2016 might be an inflection point: for the market, for the hobby, or for both.

Sotheby's were pleased with their first results of the season, but its early days, yet.

And Europeans fleeing negative interests rates know all about income-generating luxury real estate in Manahattan.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

re.

And Europeans fleeing negative interests rates know all about income-generating luxury real estate in Manahattan.


They have plenty of Auctions to bid on almost every day to spend their money without worrying about auctions in the US where they know that the expenses of the auction houses will be enormous,

Pagoda

Excluding the external financial forces (depression, recession, etc), the pivotal point is likely coming in about 25 years when generation y/z (born 1997-2012) and later get to be 50 years old. When they were growing up stamp collecting was more pretty ignored (no exposure) so nothing to come back to when they get older. The recent ones are raised on smart phones and social media and less likely to show interest in stamps, etc.

More and more collections will be offered for sale in the years ahead as estates are liquidated. The high end market will have a life of its own but the larger broader market will likely see a flooding with fewer and fewer buyers.

APS dreams that they can restore some members against this.

Al

floortrader
You mean stamp market attract more or less Investors depending what are the economics conditions. They are not collectors. I believe the stamp market is a multi market from the beginners to the big bucks investors that want to invest in stamps. They do it for material that they believe keep his value or increase. Worldwide they are not that many. Stampex is a big show but one among hundreds in the world this spring. For myself my main concern is having a $can at 0.76 US. Always appreciate your posts. Thank you. Daniel

With so many auctions taking place (both at the show and also others around the same time) it is possible it will be too much stuff at one time and this could depress prices.




Ji (nystamps) already became less aggressive about 1 and a half or 2 years ago in one of the auctions he used to be a big buyer in. We also have to remember the ebay sellers are not generally selling to the "old timers and serious collectors who have in the past and still continue to spend serious money on the hobby of stamp collecting", and their market will not likely be much affected by the big show and the surrounding auctions (plus the auctions at the show won't likely have much material that the ebay sellers would likely be buying - it will mostly be high end stuff, not ebay fodder).




Unless they have a REALLY good show, we can anticipate some post show dumping of inventory as they are taking a larger than normal inventory into the show. Also I have heard rumors some dealers plan on retiring after the show.

The other thing to consider is at the high end of the market the big exhibitors have ben spending the last months trying to add additional material to their exhibits and once the show is over some of that pressure may ease up.

Meh.

Unless you are playing up in rarified air with other one-percenters, I don't think this May and June is pivotal in anything other than that it's finally nice weather outside. It's not going to tell us anything about the hobby for the everyman collector.

For material that most can afford, these auction results aren't going to tell us anything more than any other period when there are several auctions. The fact that they are all at NY2016 means nothing. Geography doesn't affect auctions any more. People buy through agents or more frequently now, by bidding themselves online.

Depending on your collecting area, the auctions may not have ANY impact at all. For example, the auctions in question are very weak in U.S. revenue material, so NY2016 is not going to have any effect in that area.

I know several national dealers deliberately NOT attending NY2016, due to the expenses involved. As one put it: "Why should I ravage my inventory just to cover table fees and expenses for this one show when I will net far more doing my normal show schedule? Not only would I not be making as much, but then I have to try to replace all that inventory!" This makes perfect sense to me, depending on the dealer in question. Tripling your sales does you no good if you are quadrupling your expenses. On the other hand, if you have an overabundance of inventory, then that is less of a concern.

I realize that it's a once-in-10-year event from a collector perspective, but for me it was a nonstarter from the get go. For one thing, it comes at a horrible time of year for me in terms of being able to take time off from work. Maybe if I ever retire I'll go to one. More importantly, the expense overhead of travel and hotels would be thousands of dollars. Given that outside of some international dealers (who aren't that likely to have strong stocks of U.S. revenues anyway), all the high-profile dealers are ones I will see when I drive to CHICAGOPEX in November anyway. Those thousands of dollars can go to buy stamps rather than hotel rooms and airplane tickets.

Different strokes for different folks, but when I go to a show it's for the bourse, not the spectacle, the society meetings, or any of the ancillary events. If money were no object or someone else were paying the expenses, then sure... but it is an issue, so it's not for me.

revenue collector wrote: ".......but for me, it was a non-starter......." I agree totally. I'm retired with a somewhat limited income (the energy "bust" has not done my portfolio any favors).

I'd rather buy stamps than spend money on overpriced hotels and meals in Manhattan. As for air fare, I'm taking a short trip to Europe late next month to a couple of nice, but lower priced, countries. Much better than a stamp show in the middle of New York City. As rev hints, NYC is no longer the center of the philatelic universe.

Ah, the world of domestic overpricing, and not just the New York/London style micro-climate in the case of the UK. I just stayed for several days in a hotel in the centre of Paris (not high end, needless to say) for much less than the prices my daughter found when looking at nondescript B&Bs in small English towns a couple of weeks ago.

The show is also happening during prime graduation season. I live in New York and could make a day trip, but nope - I'm going to a high school graduation for a family member out of state. How many others have such commitments? I also rather go to the local and decent size show in Albany at the end of July. I'm sure to find more bargains than NYC.

I think only one of my local dealers will have a booth at the NYC show - Azusa Stamps. Doubleday won't have one - he refused for many reasons listed by revenue collector. I overheard remarks at my local monthly show - the NYC show is charging dealers $200 just to have a chair for themselves and they can't bring in outside chairs.

I'm evolving closer to the view of the original post. May-June may well provide useful data, but for the top 25% or less of the market. By this I mean people who have a steady annual purchase budget of $5,000 or more. The New York show will appeal to collectors who appreciate the opportunity to buy higher-quality material (my theory is that the dealers who can cover the costs that others have noted will have to offer and sell higher-priced material), attend society meetings all in one place where they may be members of several, avoid a trip to Europe to access European dealers and auctioneers of higher quality material, and also see rarities. There is also the social aspect for this segment - the dinners - although at least one (the Palmares) appears to have had a low response thus far because they have sent several promo messages to sell tickets. At $260/ticket, black tie, I can understand.

The show is 6 days long. Maybe you could make a day trip on the Wednesday or Thursday?