Pivot Point In The Hobby , This May And June 2016 .

I heard U$D 300 per chair but, then, its for 8 days, so its really only ...

... and I also heard one wag complaining that there were no ads on TeeVee or radio, so the news of the show would not reach older collectors who did not frequent online forums or subscribe to Linn's. That hypothetical victim would also not be on the mailing list of any of the major auction houses, not attend his local club, not attend regional shows ... but would have a wallet-full of Tubbman's ready to drop at the Javits Center.

Visions of hypothetical victims always set my teeth on edge.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

I once worked for a company who was inexperienced with the big trade shows in our industry. A Co-worker and I showed up to set our booth up, only to find out the show fee was just for the space. Well, if you needed a table and chairs and carpeting in your booth, all of that was extra. A LOT extra - to the tune of thousands of dollars. My co-worker and I basically ended up maxing out our credit cards paying for all the "extras" (thankfully we were reimbursed). Dealers will indeed need to make a lot of sales to make the show pay off for them.

"and I also heard one wag complaining that there were no ads on TeeVee or radio, so the news of the show would not reach older collectors who did not frequent online forums or subscribe to Linn's".

I heard this same thing a few days ago at a local show. The same person expressed concern about the attendance Tuesday through Thursday as well. However the older collectors are not the problem, the younger collectors are the ones who might not have heard. Yes, there are younger collectors, who buy online and don't normally go to shows and may not read collector magazines.
"Hypothetical victims" not withstanding, a little advertising never hurts.

Heck just attracting some curiousity-seekers through advertising is an admirable enough goal in itself. Some of them might be impressed enough with the hobby to start collecting, as I think stamp collecting kind of attracts the curious (in a good way) sort to begin with...

It was EYEONWALL ,who posted on 5-15-16 that this New York show was the "last hurrah" for many dealers, wonder how many older collectors are going to feel the same way .
Don't get me wrong about the hobby , it will continue and sales on ebay will continue worldwide . But there is a whole generation out there ,like myself who grew up with 2 cent stamps at stamp bourses/shows and dime packets at WOOLWORTHS who grew up and spend thousands ,if not tens of thousands of dollars who now see the end of the road. We see Auction firms charging 20% commissions on purchases and also see 20% if we want to sell at auction . So a 40% turn around cost with no increases in value of what we purchased years ago .
So a well to do collector pays 40% in juice just to buy a valuable stamp or a decent collection .So I ask you why should I purchase a $10,000 Cape of Good Hope collection if in 10 or 12 years the best my daughters are going to get is $6,000 for it .That doesn't factor in some dealer offering $2,000 to take it off their hands because nobody collects that country .
It is going to be interesting what I am going to post at the end of June 2016 when results of the show and stamp auction results are posted . Maybe I will be wrong and the excitement of the show and strong stamp auction price will send everybody scrabbling to buy .

I don't think I said "many". Also, I don't know how much this is a vote on the state of the hobby and merely a case of it just being a natural point for some dealers to retire. I can imagine a guy who otherwwise would have retired a year or two ago deciding to stick around for "the big show" and then retiring after, but there could indeed be others who are retiring due to their view on the state of the hobby. Short of asking them we can only speculate. All I know is I've heard rumors from a well placed delaer that some are planning on retiring after the show.

I only know of one dealer that is retiring after this show, and he is 80.

Aha. I get it now. Your goal is pure financial gain with no value ascribed to the pleasure or enjoyment of ownership or admiration. By pivot point, you mean a decisive signal about whether your "investment" in stamps over decades is to pay off. Trust me. The post-NY2016 signal will be, it didn't. At "thousands" or "tens of thousands," you are nowhere near the spend level that you would need to be to earn a significant long-term gain on a stamp "investment". You need to be at the million-plus level, in "investment grade" stamps. Phone Richard Lehmann.

The reason to purchase that Cape of Good Hope collection is the non-financial reward of seeing, studying, and appreciating those stamps. If you gain nothing from that, might as well go back to tungsten and tin.

The NY show may have some affect on US markets, but on global scale IMHO far more influential will be what happens with European economy in May and June. Some big (and long term) decisions such as BREXIT and axing of Greek debts (and the new EU online privacy act) coming ahead... They will have either negative or positive affect on life of regular joes (a lot of uncertainty about personal finance in the air) as well as those with more money (rates are dead low, stock market is not great either, there are very few good/reliable investment targets).

For example if UK leaves EU that's pretty much the end of my UK stamp purchases (postage alone can be pretty bad with bigger lots/collections, but adding non-EU customs fees on top of it all would be the last straw). Way more affordable to simply buy from German or Dutch dealers (and in general switch into Delcampe instead of ebay). I'm just one collector, but I would imagine many of the European collectors would follow the same logic.

Likely some of the european 'big money' will try to find a haven from stamp investments. But whether or not that's a wise move is beyond my comprehension; I just like to collect stuff and not think about what they might/will be worth some day.

-k-

From the WSS NY 2016 website:




I have not seen the show budget, but I do note that four of the five sponsors draw their membership from the non-beginner non-curiosity-seeker end of the hobby, and the USPS might think that posters in nearly every post office pretty well covers their end of the bargain (never mind the commemorative stamp & show cancel).

"Push" advertising on TeeVee & radio is wildly expensive and, were I sitting on the board of any of these five organizations, I would vote against it. Loudly.

Hiring a publicist to draw 'news' coverage is vastly more cost-effective, and we'll see how well that was executed if/when we see/hear "opening tomorrow" & "opened today" reports/stories on the local news ... local, because drawing curiosity seekers from outside the local market is wildly unlikely.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

While I agree with that thinking for most common stamps, my thinking would change quite a bit when we start talking higher sums of money, such as the aforementioned $10K. I would probably forego the purchase and buy something else if I thought I would really take that much of a bath if I ever wanted to sell it. I likely wouldn't get, in my estimation, $10K worth of enjoyment out of them, or even $4K if you just want to talk about the spread. I may well spend $10K on stamps cumulatively over the next few years, but that's a few years worth of enjoyment rather than one quick shot. Others' opinions may vary.

scb
We don't know how matters will play out - and the level of debate doesn't help - but I'd be very surprised if a UK departure from the EU led to a material - indeed, any - change in tariffs. I suspect that would not be in the interest of either party.

cj
I didn't read Floortrader's comments on COGH as indicating a primary financial interest - simply that it's a big chunk out of a dependent's future income if values nosedive.

Geoff

Yup. I saw this firsthand at CHICAGOPEX 3-4 years ago (I forget the exact year). For whatever reason (I don't think it was solicited by anyone representing the show) a reporter from the Chicago Tribune came out on Friday of the show, did some interviews and snapped some pictures, and in Saturday's paper there was a huge article about the show on page 1 of one of the interior sections, "Lifestyles" or something similar. You cannot believe the traffic it brought out. Everyone was talking about it at the show.

There needs to be more of this, including show organizers actively reaching out to local newspapers, radio, and TV stations.

"but I do note that four of the five sponsors draw their membership from the non-beginner non-curiosity-seeker end of the hobby"

Of course it does, who else would you expect to sponsor a show like this? Along with the major auction houses, the big players with the largest stake invested in the hobby are going to be the financial backbone of the show. The dealers are the ribs, and the collectors are the flesh and blood.

It is unfair to say that there needs to be more before we've seen if there has been any/enough, and we won't see that until the show opens.

No publicist is good enough to get 'stamp show opens two weeks from today' stories placed in the non-hobby press.




My point was not that the sponsors were somehow inappropriate, but that attracting curiosity-seekers could not be a primary goal.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey