So They Tell Me The Stamp Market Is Crashing?

funcitypapa, don't mistake getting a graded cert with getting a cert. The stamps you mention (67, 121-122, 95-101, etc.) are probably all worth getting certs on if sound (& legitimately Fine or better), but IMO they're not worth getting GRADED certs on unless they'll grade >90. Subtle but important difference that may have gotten lost in that long thread. The value of a graded cert increases as the stamp nears perfection... Stamps that are Fine benefit little from having a "70" on the piece of paper in addition to the expert's opinion.

Since it is possible to get a cert without getting a grade, there are plenty of stamps that get certs even when they don't grade 98.

When you send in for a cert you can stipulate that they not assign any grade beneath "X".

You can establish a minimum grade. Above that, they'll put the grade on the cert. Below that, they'll just issue a cert with the opinion and no grade.

I have about 12-15 certs in my collection, I only ever directly purchased one. Other than the one I purchased, the rest came indirectly from collections/lots that came my way. Bill Weiss offered to do certs for any of my stamps at no charge (I had given him a lot of hours for things like his website and digitizing his books) but I never took him up on his repeated offers. I don't collect certs I collect stamps, some postal history, and really want a 1963 Studebaker Postal Zip Van!

If the bottom fell out of the stamp market tomorrow I would still collect stamps. I consider the money I have spent on them as already being returned in the enjoyment and education that they have provided me. So if some cash value is returned before or after my death, it is all 'bonus' income.
Don

The Scott #'s I had mentioned in my prior post would never be purchased without a cert; that is why I have as many Certs as I mentioned previously. But I also purchased from dealers who understood that those kind of stamps should not have been offered for sale without a cert in the first place. As we all know there are on line dealers offering stamps that should have Certs but don't leading to the obvious conclusion. The unused 78b with PSE graded 90 was not purchased because it had a graded cert (although that certainly was a bonus), I was just looking for a quality unused 78b and this was the one that came along.

I am well aware of the game or should I say strategy of resubmitting a prior non graded but certified stamp in the hopes of hitting the magic numerical threshold. While I understand this as a business calculation or gamble I regard it as a contamination of the hobby subjugating someone's qualitative opinion to all else and consigning all specimens of the same Scott # falling shy of this subjective threshold to something akin to the philatelic equivalent of Siberia.

I currently have 79 certed items in my collection. Of those, I believe 1 is graded (it came that way, I did not get it graded). Most items were purchased already with the certs, but probably about 20 are items I submitted myself. That number also includes some items purchased as fakes and also a few "learning experiences" of my own.

Virtually none of my certed items were certed for condition, but rather authenticity. First issue imperfs and part perfs and silk papers, second issue vermilion errors of color, proprietary roulettes... all those areas can be a mine field for the unwary.

Link to certed items in my collection here:

https://revenue-collector.com/cgi-b...rchType=Cert

Two things to add. First, everyone needs to remember this is a hobby and the true value we get from it is the enjoyment. If there's anything left monetarily when we are done for our heirs, great.

That brings up the second point. While many of us, if not all, have specialized knowledge about what we've been collecting for years and decades, that knowledge will by and large, go with us when we pass. Even leaving detailed notes about what we have will only help our heirs so much.

If you have material which would make the grade, I can see why you might do that. It's one thing for you and I to KNOW what we're selling to a dealer, but anything we write for when we are not here any longer would be subject to dispute by any dealer making an offer. Just look at all the opinions on this thread and you start to get an idea of the problem for our heirs.

I have some graded material in my collection and will probably have some graded which isn't. Like others have posted, I know what it is, but my non-collecting daughter doesn't. I have other items which will be certified but which I won't bother with getting graded. It's nice, probably in the 85-90 range, but not worth grading.

Just my thoughts, so be kind

Very thoughtful post by Stampman2002

1.4 billion is about 20 stamps per citizen at the time. Yes I am saying that 3% of 1.4 billion surviving mint is a gross overestimation. That is 42 million. Perhaps you don't realize just how many 42 million is compared to the number of collectirs of US stamps. So what if a giant dealer like Posner MIGHT have 1000? That only leaves another 41,999,000 to reach your figure. If there were that many floating around, their value wouldn't be anywhere near what it is.

I think your forgetting about the hoarder. I'm talking about that guy that stacks stamps like silver. I'm a hoarder. For example I just counted I have 5,236 two cent Columbians. Heck I didn't even know I had that many. It is probably the first time I have looked at them since I got them. Well I probably didn't even look at them then. My point I have duplicates on top of duplicates. You will never see these on the market until I am not around to keep them. I can't believe I am the only hoarder.

I am with you mkfarm. I have three stockbooks packed with lower value columbians including 56 broken hats. Thousands of banknotes.

The only reason the catalog value is what it is is because it's a popular set. Plus no one wants the price to drop, so people are in no hurry to unload large quantities. And the price has dropped quite a bit over the last several years anyway. Look at all the other commem's still around; there were 10-12 times as many 231 issued as any post 1940 issue and people are still drowning in them. Anyone can still buy many hundreds of mint 286 at any time, and there were barely more then 10% of those issued. Or 295, or 324, or 398........every one of these is a common stamp with a nearly unlimited supply despite having a billion less printed.

Folks, we're not talking about ordinary 2 cent Columbians here; of course you can have a lot of them as there are tons available. But the original assertion was that there were 14,000 of them that are NH that would grade 98 (i.e. equivalent to the one in the auction) that still exist. Nothing in my experience indicates there are anywhere near that many of those in existence. Most 2 cent Columbians were printed with bad centering, some had their gum soaked off, others were hinged, tons were used. The number 14,000 seems preposterous to me. Any of you can prove me wrong and make a handsome profit by submitting all your potential NH 98's for grading. We can keep count here and see if you reach 14,000.