So They Tell Me The Stamp Market Is Crashing?

Since only one stamp in one hundred thousand would have to grade 98 or better for there to be 14,000 examples, it does not seem preposterous at all.

I agree with Rhett here. I have looked through envelopes and stock books filled with hundreds of 2c Columbians and other denominations.... I have never found one worthy of grading! Occasionally I will find one centered around 90.

95-98... MNH, even used, I haven't even come close. When I think I find one, it's always faulty or has perf issues.

There are plenty of blocks and full sheets of these stamps on the market. They are also generally centered sub-90.

Most of these stamps have already been sifted through by "professionals" . Doubtful professional dealers such as Posner etc have not already looked through their inventory with a fine tooth comb.fir these gem stamps.

I look at PSE like a breast surgeon. Once you get a stamp graded, it has to be recerted and graded about every 12-15 years. ( just like a boob job--- have to eventually be redone). Repeat business keeps them alive... most, not all, of the well centered stuff has already been submitted. Business model of PSE is dumb when you have a finite amount of material to grade. If they are not creative in finding new markets they are doomed to fail.

You really believe that dealers have the time to sort through thousands and thousands of common inexpensive stamps simply in the hope of finding one that might be worth some real money???? They would go broke doing that. Sure, they look at whatever passes in front of them in other dealer stocks, collections, or small groups in a large lot, but they are not going to spend hours at a huge pile of a cheap stamp. It's like looking for a gradable C19, no one is going to spend hours going through envelopes stuffed with them in the hope of finding one when the time can be much more profitably spent. Obviously people keep their eyes open when looking, but most gradable stamps are happened upon in a normal day's looking, not by sitting down with a massive hoard.

Disagree Rev ... ask me 10 yrs ago, sure.... but by now dealer stock has been looked through for high end stuff.
No chance a dealer is leaving a mint nh 2c Colombian that sells for 2 grand sitting in an envelope

There's every chance. I spend my time breaking down and cataloging large lots and collections for a dealer. I know how most graded stamps are found; I have found a few myself.

You have no idea how much material is mixed together in envelopes. It's not unusual in a large lot to find one with 15 or 20 "#68" in it, and have 4 or 5 have grills; the same holds true for other values. I have found Z grill Black Jacks in piles of "73" and gradable stamps in piles of junk. Most collectors have no idea how much material is actually out there.

I am not going to get drawn into trying to quantify the unknown but Bart is at least using logic instead of pretending that every great stamp out there has already been graded. The actual truth may be that only a small fraction of the high grade stamps have been graded. I mean, nobody has seen a great stamp come to market without a graded cert lately???

Revcollector - I could not agree more. I break down large lots also but it is for myself. Last year I found a pile of MNH E1-E5 mixed in with a pile of old glassines containing common large banknotes. I just went through another pile of material and came out with a load of earlies that were mixed in with common commemoratives. I have learned to never ever leave a stone unturned and know from experience that there are amazing finds out there that are buried in peoples leftovers. I am always amazed that when a collector passes away there was no preparation done for the heirs and it all ends up in boxes and sold as paper for all intents and purposes. It is naive to think that all of anything has been discovered. Far from it.

It isn't just the undiscovered stamps. There are lot of people that dislike or don't need grading and have no intention of getting there stamps graded. I suspect grading is still favored by a minority of collectors.

I am also not going to continue to argue a point that is probably unprovable either way in my lifetime. But some food for thought here: I buy these type graded stamps from the leading graded dealers, including Posner. I can assure you they are not sitting on hordes of this type material; they are often unable to source what I am looking for even in the grade of 90. And for the record, I never said that every great stamp out there has already been graded; I do firmly believe that the contention that there are hordes of stamps like the 2 cent Columbian in this sale out there that would grade 98 NH is not true. P.S. rgstamp, I loved the PSE/breast surgeon analogy!

Isn't that the dang truth. That's one of the reasons I still love buying huge carton/accumulation lots, and not just U.S. revenues.

An example: Earlier this year I bought a stockbook of U.S. face value postage from a local dealer. One of the manilla pages also had some miscellaneous non-U.S. on it. Two items caught my eye, but not being well versed in modern (if you can call early QE British Commonwealth "modern"), I didn't pay them much attention other than to make note to look them up when I got home. The dealer ignored them as well. Both are MNH.

Well, you could have knocked me over with a feather. Given that these were effectively freebies, it turned out quite nicely... I sold them on ebay for roughly 10X what the stockbook cost me.

Ahh, the thrill of the hunt!

Rev - Nice! I probably need a twelve step program because I am completely addicted to the rush I get when I find something unexpected. My best finds lately come from what I can only deduce were items socked away decades ago that were considered nothing special, oftentimes "new issues". Another favorite is old glassines and 102 cards that were priced up in the 70's and forgotten until I rediscover them. Love it!

Disclaimer and note to less experienced people: The majority of casual collectors will NOT find hidden treasures on ebay with regularity. You will need to spend a LOT of time and money to get the kind of experience that those in this thread have achieved. A less experienced person would be better off buying lottery tickets than thinking that they will stumble across a rare stamp on ebay.

We have a constant stream of new people joining the community with unrealistic expectations. Any help with replying to this never ending task is greatly appreciated.
Don

Excellent disclaimer Don. I should note that the material that I process is never from ebay. I gave up on that a long long time ago. But you are right, it takes experience to zero in on a potential buy that could pay off. And there are failures. Start small and work your way into it.

Don,

Not to pick nits, but that isn't entirely true. A novice/inexperienced can get just as lucky as an experienced collector... the difference is in whether the collector can spot potential diamonds in the rough before hand in order to gauge which lots/collection have better potential than others, *AND* do they have the expertise once the material is in hand to recognize better items.

In other words, they may find them with the same regularity, but may not ever be aware of what they have acquired.

Gambling on stamp lots on ebay, at shows, at auction, at brick & mortar shops (the few that remain) is not for the faint of heart... or experience.

My words of advice in a general sense:

1. Like traditional forms of gambling, always purchase primarily for enjoyment rather than investment or return.

2. Never spend (gamble) more than you can afford to lose, in the event that what you purchase isn't what you thought it was.

3. Only ever purchase on what you can actually see in online auction lots, not on what MIGHT be there. This catches people up. They will see the overall characteristics of selected images and infer inclusion of better items that were never actually implied to exist, only in their mind.

4. When it comes to ebay, never rely solely upon verbal description for scope of material. When in doubt, ask for more pictures. See it before you buy it.