The Sun Will Still Come Up Tomorrow After Scott Lowers Many Values In Its New Specialized Catalog.

Ken Lawrence has commented on another site we can expect the catalog value of many U.S. stamps to be decreased in the Scott's 2018 U.S. Specialized Catalog.

This would be a "market adjustment" reflecting the current state of our hobby. Do not panic. This is a normal economic occurrences in any market place. The market will continue to exist.

It may economically devalue our holding$ but does not reduce the enjoyment we get from this hobby, unless we let it.

Please practice positive philately.

*** Moved by Staff to a more appropriate forum. ***

The rare stamps will always be in demand. That demand will raise prices in the long term even if Scott is adjusting values.

They need to cut prices at least 50% ,there are a few exceptions but mostly a 50 % should help give a truer price .I can hear all the dealers and collectors screaming
It will not devalue anybody's collection because dealers are offering 10% of catalog and now you will get 20% of catalog ----nothing changes .

Since graded values are indexed from base Scott values will they change as well?

Ken is merely repeating what the Scott editors said in Linn's

Hoosier Boy you obviously do not follow the stamp market or it's trends. I would be very surprised if any values decrease by what I have seen in the auctions in the last 6 months. If you collect fualty stamps then yeah, that stamp you bought fora dime is now worth nothing. Please see my post "so they tell me the stamp markek is crashing" Buy quality, which is what Scott's values and you will do well.

I just received my new 2018 Scott US Specialized this weekend. I too was curious about how the trend towards lower CVs would affect graded material. After checking my stamps, I found the following:
graded value higher ..... 3%
graded value lower ...... 12%
graded value unchanged .. 85%
Undoubtedly my group of graded stamps is not large enough for statistical relevance, yet I found the results interesting. The main point is that the preponderance of the values are unchanged from 2017.

A catalog's first and best use is for stamp identification. Second is to see what you will probably pay a dealer if you don't know the true market value of a stamp. It's fun checking the completed listings for final bid price (minus the shill bidders), especially when I start collecting a new county.

Scott stated that the prices were dropping but I would not expect Scott to drop prices quickly even when the market is "crashing". There are too many other business factors.

It sometimes is like the old saying...what is the difference between a wholesale price increase and decrease? One you see, one you don't (as quickly).

I'll add that for many stamps a good measure of market value is what a similar stamp or set sold for on ebay, which today is likely the largest marketplace for all but the highest priced material.

Maybe in some areas, but certainly not all. Increases outnumbered decreases in the 2018 Specialized when it comes to U.S. revenues.

Tangent: Amos also hinted at more increases to come, although they are based on a forthcoming census to be published by Michael Aldich, and I question the validity of the numbers if they are anything like the supposed population numbers Aldrich uses in his auctions. They are laughably off in many areas, used as marketing puffery to hawk his own wares.

A dealer-published census or price guide is IMO potentially a huge conflict of interest. If the author has no ethics or moral compass, you cannot rely on the validity of the data.

Many listings today never mention which catalog the values used actually came from; I would assume that this practice would become more common if a new version of a catalog reflected significant value declines.

And I would also assume that catalog sales would drop with value declines over several years. I am not sure that some collectors would want to shell out hundreds of dollars each year just to find that their collections are worth less and less. Dealers would, of course, have more reasons to be aware of the current catalog values.
Don

Or simply reference older catalog values in your ads. Mystic had a particular back-cover Linn's add that touted "rare" wine stamps after the Smithsonian deaccession sales that for years referenced pre-sale Scott catalog values (values tumbled after the market was flooded). In my opinion clearly unethical, but they seem to get a pass from most people for some reason.

"Meat & Potato" stamps in that most collectors can afford and aspire to own will drop in CV because the internet now provides an international marketplace that allows for comparison shopping among a larger supply at any given time, compared to pre-internet days when collectors had to depend on a smaller number of professional and part-time dealers working the stamp show circuit or who had brick & mortar businesses.

But for stamps that exist in small numbers, or moderate numbers but few truly in VF+ condition, certified to be authentic and not reperfed, regummed, repaired or a forgery, prices will always be strong and probably grow stronger as those collectors who can afford to "upgrade" items to a better condition chase a smaller number of stamps that truly are in that condition or simply do not exist in large numbers in any condition.

"Common" stamps have been, and always will be, "common" and their value, low to begin with, will either remain as it or drop as more supply comes into the market than demand.

It is hard for some to wonder. For example, Scott lists the new Forever (49¢) Ted Hesburgh stamp with a catalogue value of 1.00 for a single and $20.00 for a sheet. You will find many dealers use this as a price. Except for initial stock dealers would never pay that for it...you will get less than face yet some still will try to sell at/near Scott. Dealers would be outraged if they reduced this to some smaller premuim. Scott's markup is based upon just doubling face and not related to fixed costs.

For example, I could see $1.00 for a single but $20 for a sheet?

Scotts values to me are just a pointer, a check point. I don't collect stamps for investment purposes. So Scotts values just indicates to me if I am buy ... ballpark value to pay.

If I am selling, ballpark value to offer.

My actual decision on buying is if I need the item and if the price is reasonable.

My sell decision is am I pricing this item to sell. Hate spending time listing items to sell and then not selling them. Waste of time.

Thanks, Scotts, for at least providing some recognized reference point.