Value Of 1502A Error Stamp

oldtriguy1960

Can you tell me how much a US Scott 1502a in the 1980 Brookman catalog? I'm curious to know how a modern rarity priced from 7 years old compared with today at 5x it's age.

Hi rismoney,

The 2004 Brookman catalog does not list 1502a, just the 1502.

My 1994 H.E. Harris US/BNA also doesn't list 1502a.

My 2012 Scott USA Specialized lists the 1502a in unused at $1,000.00

I have a SCOTT 2005 US Pocket Stamp Catalog. It lists the 1502a in unused at $1,350.00

I have a SCOTT 1985 US catalog that lists the 1502a in unused at $1,500.00

So looks like value has been declining since 1985.

Dave N.

Thank you for this info and taking it off topic. I find it wild, that a true 20th century rarity with an alleged count of 50 of which I own 1 and can account for a few others, expect a few lost to philately, has had no appreciation and rather depreciated. I truly believe these type of issues will ultimately skyrocket, but until collecting behaviors adjust to realizations around modern rarities, such is life.

This one sold yesterday for <$675
https://www.ebay.com/itm/1502a-15c-...AOSwiHZbBEsa

Some scarce stamps are just not "sexy". US 272a comes to mind. 72 known and stuck at $1000 +/- for many years. A great example of unrealistic catalog values since most of them sell for sub 25 percent of cv and can be had for 15 to 20 percent frequently unless they have amazing centering.

I get that rogdcam. I like studying the economics around these items.

272a having 72 known...Stamps have equilibrium when the buyer and seller align satisfying need and therefore there will be no appreciation on this. This is normal abiding scarcity principle. There are a slew of them on ebay alone priced for every condition. Only if demand were to ramp up against the waning supply would there be appreciation. But there isn't, because a seller will emerge each time they can get their #, until every 1 of the 72 owners acts and pulls it off market (cutting off supply).

In the case of 1502a, there is an "ask" on hipstamp for $1000. This then sets an upper boundary, albeit negotiable. So between the sub $675 and $1000 is where the stamp price lies (assuming conditional equivalant). The only way for appreciation to occur is, not just for supply to dry up, but also for demand to emerge. I suspect that yesterday's buyer conforms to 1 of a few scenarios: - 1 being a seller lined up for a higher value, or a longer term value proposition based on current supply side excess, where they think they can garner a bump. Clearly the long term holders are underwater, who bought in > $1000, so they're either holdouts for future appreciation or liquidation ready. This person could dollar average down, and accomplish a secondary goal of further limiting supply and reduce their cost basis.

Say I corner the market on a sexy stamp- lets pick 3835a. But I price it out of bounds with no sellers, say $20k. You effectively put the stamp out of reach and your target stamp buyer is gone. With the exception of nyse/cia inverts noone (which are roughly at equilibrium themselves) nothing modern is trading in that range. So people treat it like the Z-Grill, a never going to happen philatelic fantasy and move on. So scarcity isn't trivially about cornering and rocket pricing.

Now when you move into the upper echelon of the best of the best stamps, a new market occurs with unique actors. These are not people plopping stamps into albums to joyfully look at with their grandkids. These are investments with motivations from tax perks, diversification, speculation or study. If you can push transition a stamp into this sphere, is where you get a payoff. I tend to think it becomes the PB of the 1502a, and everything else is relegated to common + the rarity vig say $600.

I'd be interested to know which stamps have appreciated in the last 100 years of issues outside of the classic era. Not from face value to Scott, but from first SCV to present SCV, for stamps say over $100 and then factor in inflation.

Hi ris,
I am not sure that an 'ask' price sets anything meaningful since people 'ask' all kinds of ridiculous prices. Even online 'sold' prices' can be a bit dicey since there sellers who shill bid and otherwise manipulate the sold listings (aka Cartel).

When you factor in inflation and in general, stamp prices have not really moved much over the last 75-100 years (of course there are exceptions).

Here is a study on the US Zeps that includes inflation based upon catalog pricing. http://stampsmarter.com/learning/Ze...gTrends.html
As you can see by the graphs and once inflation is factored in, the catalog value of a set in 1940 is about the same catalog value as today. As we all know, catalog value is not the same as actual market value but they are relative to each other.

During the 1980s, there was a period when we all should have sold our stamps, prices appears to have taken a jump for 4-5 years before they came back down. Then of course the advent of the internet in late 1990s and early 2000s brought massive, instant availability to all kinds of collectibles.
And sellers were no longer mostly dealers but rather hobbyists who did not mind cutting loose of all the extra (and often lower quality) material they had sitting around.

To understand an actual market value you have to put away any catalog and instead invest time and effort into studying 'sold' values. Ideally you would have multiple sources (i.e. auctions, dealer sales, online auctions, websites sales) for 'sold' history.
Don

The modern error market is not very good right now. I was just discussing this yesterday with a dealer friend in connection with a 632b that I spotted in a collection he had.

Revenue stamps have done well.

2016 Scott Specialized Sc #1502a cat. $900.

The modern error market isn't good right now, in terms of appreciation, which I tend to believe is really good for buying (yes a speculation). But I think that is what people will consider collectibles of note of the post 1940 stamps produced in such high quantities. They are cool to look at. Other niches may also prevail like PNC but it's few and far between. If people were fighting and driving prices up, you want to be a seller in those conditions.

The ask price isn't fictional because regardless of it's absurdness, it reflects a top minimum. It would be idiotic to pay $1k for a 1502a but there is that liquidity. That's good for stamp markets overall, since you have true market context to reflect upon Scott or other catalog valuations. Are these prices and other online manifestations of cartels manipulation, yes but my belief when dealing with small quantity issues, this becomes the reality within the landscape of auction prices realized and other public pricing reveals.

An example- I am speculating on a 5306 error because I think that might be a highly desired product. I think it's got potential for tens of thousands. But my time frame is 25+ years. The last 25 weren't kind to most collectors, particularly because they bought common material.

This letdown for many, the shrinking total collector pool, the swarmy dealers through the landscape and a host of other factors around next gen collectors, will inevtiably lead to a more consolidated set of holdings. The TBD is will demand ever pick up? My guess is yes, but I get enjoyment from it regardless... And maybe some auction anxiety every now and again. :)

Why do you think revenue has done well? Do you think BOB has been an overlooked area? I thought about delving into random US areas, like that but I feel it takes a but of study to engage. I have thought about liquor, beer and playing card stamps but it's very, well bob

Partly because "revenues" covers a very wide range of possible collecting areas. Partly 2 high end dealers and several smaller ones, ebay, and a reasonably large group of fairly to very serious collectors.

Let me ask this, if you saw this offset on the back of a 1502a, would black omit be invalidated and classified as a var?

no, this would not disqualify it