EFO Pricing Approach

I am trying to understand the quantification of prices, specifically as it pertains to US modern EFO material. I will rule out catalog listed EFO, color omits and imperfs, since I believe they are well documented. What I am trying to come to grips on, is the pricing around color shifts and misregistration. Is there a methodology? With each degree of shift, does the price go up? Is it totally a guess based on visual appeal? I see some sellers create pricing scales based on how severe the shift is, in relation to a similar one. But is there a starting point? The pricing is all over the place, and grading or centering isnt relevant because the worse a stamp is borked, sometimes the better it is.

I buy them, purely based on visual impulse, fun and availability but I don't know how I stand in terms of actually getting a deal...

I do firmly believe these are the future of modern issue philately interest.

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Let's begin with a multi-color stamp in which all of the colors are correctly registered. Lovely.

A small color shift is a small defect.

A larger color shift is a larger defect.

Until ...

The color has shifted far enough that it becomes an EFO.

After that ...

An even larger color shift is a valuable EFO.

A still larger color shift is a still more valuable EFO.

So what means "far enough"?

In general - and, boy, do I mean general - color shifts begin to be valuable when the color invades or distorts some other design element.

For example, color shifts in the US 8c Liberty stamp start to go from disheartening to thrilling (more or less) when the red statue begins to fill the white letters of 'LIBERTY' or when the torch is passing thru the 'U.S.'.

In all cases, 1) people gotta care (I was fascinated by EFOs as a youngster, and yawn at them now) and 2) for those people, price = f/scarcity.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey

You are trying to make EFO pricing a science, when it will always be an art.
Nothing will substitute for experience.

EFO pricing, like cover pricing, is indeed an art.

Yes, the larger the shift (color or perforation), the higher the price. This is a combo of eye appeal (higher demand) and the fact that larger shifts are less likely to make it out (smaller supply). But there are many other factors. A popular topical (like Space) or a series that a lot of people specialize in (like Prexies) will command higher prices due to higher demand. On the supply side of things, there tend to be higher quantities of EFOs on definitive issues than commem issues simply because most defin issues are printed in higher quantities than most commems. But it is more complicated than that. Some issues had more problems (like color shifts on 1555) than others. So, no, there is no simple formula you can use. Plus you have the likes of Billy doing their best to distort the market.

(fixed a few typos)

Funny you should mention specific dealers distorting the market, because that was what I think was passive agressively asking around.

I recently have been looking at this stuff more recently but I apparently bought something a time ago not knowing who a dealer was in the space. It was a best offer, which he accepted at 50% off his original ask, like 90 for a 180 item. This gave me a little pause, since there was no back and forth, but in my first time deal with this dealer, I figured he just overlists and negotiates if people choose to.

Now as I have given it more critical thought, I probably overpaid short term but got a deal. Here's the issue, inside my head.

There's not much comparitive material, so I pick an arbitrary starting price, say 20, based on other shifts and misregistration. But this piece is unique. It's hot. Without identifying the item, it's like Elvis with green eyebrows and a purple mustache. A true find. It commands a premium. Not a color omit premium, but not a perf shift or uninteresting color shift either. It's an EFO dreamboat, where the inks performed magic on the press.

I think if he listed it for 180, and another dealer has it for 160, then that is the going rate. This is what they rely on. But it's nonsense.

As noted above, this is an art to price. But its not completely arbitrary. I think it's akin to bookmakers setting odds on football games.

I think it was probably a $50-75 community valued item in retrospect. The dealer probably bought the sheet for that price or less and reoffered a similar single a month or so later. He recouped his investment so he's now in gravy mode, where no reasonable offer is declined. He keeps the PB as the prize and moves along trying to get the next passer b(y)er to see Elvis is in the building.

Now, today as the stamps have no catalog ability, all future pricing analysis remains a visual, and a present day Google search reveals dealers asking 500 for it and average sellers in the middle looking to get 300.

Either way I am happy with my stamp and its present day value, but to me the volatility in low liquidity is hard to reconcile price on a per transaction basis.

I dont believe it to be random market pricing art, but rather a depictment of the landscape. It's like comparing photos of the same object on 2 days, years apart. The subject didn't change, but everything around it did. Which leads me to this question:

What will peoples perception of this particular stamp be in the future and how hard will it be to obtain it (rare?) ? That is the mysery

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One pricing strategy is to set what you know to be a high price, and wait (and wait) for someone to show-up and pay it.

But if you've listed an item, any any price, and it just sits there, and just sits there, and just sits there, you might as well take - without argument - the first bid to come along.

After all, if the only guy in the world who wants to buy this thing has made an offer, why make a counter-offer and (possibly) drive him away? If he's the only bidder, he might know a lot more than you about what that item is really worth.

Meanwhile, even at half price, you get some cash flow, your inventory turns over, that drug-on-the-market thing that nobody wanted is gone, and you can move on.

The stamps that sit on the shelf are not the stamps that pay your rent; it is only the stamps that move out the door that pay your rent.

I'm glad that you are happy with your stamp.

Cheers,

/s/ ikeyPikey