Understanding Classic Rarities

So I was looking at an ongoing spink sale, and I am not a US classic collector per se anymore since my interests here waned. But I do like perusing rarities to get a sense of market demand and depth.

I see a Scott 109. It is reported only 346 copies exist. It only catalogs for $5500. I don't know where it will end, but I'd guess say $2800.

Personally I do think these types of items are a steal. It's out of my league, but it seems to me that a 1/346 for almost a 150 old stamp should be _way_ more expensive than 2 or 3g, knowing next to nothing about it. Is 346 outstanding too high a number, where any collector that really wants it, can get it? We're not talking multiples, postal history, or other more subjective material, but rather a straight Scott play. Is demand so weak, that a hard to get Scott number is actually not hard because noone holds stamps anymore?

Has the online marketplace made rarities readily available where, despite being rare, are simply not hard to get? Does one other seller out there, undermine the entire pricing mechanism, whereby there is now marketplace choice?

I welcome thoughts on rarity buying.

The reprints of the 1861 issue are somewhat more available than other stamps that are as rare. As I understand it that's because when they were originally sold, they mostly sold to collectors. So most of the original stamps are still around and show up in sales fairly regularly. There is still a pretty wide range of prices depending on centering and gum condition. That doesn't completely answer your question. I don't get the impression that rarities in general have depreciated due to online selling. Some areas go up, some go down, many stay even. It definitely varies a lot by series. The Pictorial series of 1869 for example seems to go in and out of popularity a lot. Markets are weird.

The issue number may say rarity but the availablity says otherwise. Siegel records show that this issue for instance is frequently available and thus there are enough to satisfy demand.

https://siegelauctions.com/lot_grd....mitPrev=Prev

Does this then imply that there are less than 350 classic US collectors around the world in accumulation mode willing to spend > $3k for a stamp towards completing a series? Are higher end collectors themselves becoming the rarity, whereas at this end of the market flipping is the norm? I am merely just trying to understand what is going on. Over 10% of the supply flipped in the last 3 years alone. I get that many collectors are in retirement phase or inherited collections are being sold off. Dealers probably have a stock too. But are we amidst a glut that just can't be satiated? Could this spawn a new generation of collectors realizing that once hard to get material is now available and, dare I say - cheap? I focused on specifically the US classics here, because ignoring the mass printing of stamps helps narrow the scope of the market, in this case to 350 people - collectors, investors, dealers, heirs and unknowns. I doubt the sky is falling, and stamps are the next big thing, so my logical guess is some weird in between behavior.

I do think that the number of US classic collectors that are into filling these types of spaces are not many. I am assuming that once you are into this phase of your collection you are also acquiring all of the Special Printings and bluish papers and so on and you are in limited company from the perspective of assets allocated to this endeavor. I do not find it surprising.

Many collectors of 19th Century U.S. classic stamps collect only the regularly issued postage stamps, not special printings, reprints, proofs, essays, specimens, etc. This limits the number of potential buyers for this particular stamp substantially.

There are many items with 5 or fewer copies known - particularly in the revenue area - which are less than $1000.

I have no desire to own a #109.

I think the main factor is lack of people who are able to afford such items. After all, a collector serious enough to spend thousands on a single stamp is not going to buy Scott 109 and stop there. There are dozens, if not hundreds, more classic stamps in that price range. Few people have hundreds of thousands of dollars to tie up in a market in which interest has been shrinking for decades. Eventually demand will reach a bottom, but exactly when that is will only be known in hindsight.

There's a parallel in numismatics. Many classic gold coins of low mintage sell for little more than their bullion value. It's been that way for a long time.

I agree with previous posters. In my first collecting life, which lasted four decades, I avidly sought high-quality US classics and put together a fairly powerful collection of 19-century US stamps. But I never felt the need to add reissues or special printings, even though they have Scott numbers and there were empty spaces for them in my National album. They seemed to be a different animal that didn't fit into my collection.

Even if I could afford that level of collecting I would be wary that my collection will be wasted after I pass. Whoever inherits such a collection is unlikely to have the skill to appreciate it, much less identify the more valuable items within. Developing such a skill takes effort and time, more than a non-collector is likely to do. So, often grandpa's coins are hauled into the bank, and his stamps perhaps sold to a dealer at steep discount, or worse yet, tossed in the trash.

OTOH, something like stocks are readily valued and easily traded. Yes, grandson might still blow the cash, but at least he'll not toss it in the trash.

There are 2 #109 on ebay

Confucious say man who buys 109 on ebay has air between ears.

Just showing there out there not hard to find William lang is the seller
why would you not buy one on ebay if the price is right

I avoid ebay and Bill Lang. Just a personal preference.

Why ?

It is a complicated matter and rehashing it serves no purpose. I would suggest that you use the SCF search engine and look for topics/comments related to Lang and ebay. You can try searching for the words "feedback", fake, scam, cartel, Ryle, NYStamps, Anthony's and so on in conjunction with the word " ebay". The results are interesting.