Market Value Vs Catalogue Value

Do you think it's the market value that influences the catalogue value or it's the catalague (Scott for instance) that influences the market value ?

If the true market values influenced the Scott catalog values stamps would be very cheap indeed. What perecentage of sales are done at catalog value? Seahorses are an excellent example. Catalog prices have zero connection to reality. They are something to use to establish a ROM.

There is no blanket statement that covers this. Market value clearly influences raising or lowering cat values for some items. Others it does not. Scott does seek out the opinions of a group of professional philatelists regarding current cat values in different areas. At the same time, there are plenty of stamps where the cat value has not changed in years. Sometimes many years. So the answer to the above question is both.

Right, like the very dealers who have interest in keeping wares prices high because otherwise they have no margin to work with. Got it.

I see fine specimen Siegel auction material fetching 50% being heralded as a win. If catalogs were honest, independent open source, you would see the markets drop on most stamps and perhaps a renewed interest in the hobby.

Scott uses auction realizations and completed sales figures from the overall stamp market to arrive at their valuations. Although not the final word as far as pricing is concerned, I find it difficult to believe they count on guesses / opinions.

And yet one is hard pressed to find many sales that achieve the catalog value. Sure, you can pick examples from Siegel but at the end of the day the premise of sales feeding catalog values does not compute.

Most stamp catalog "values" are simply equivalent to a "retail list price."

Just like buying a car or a refrigerator or any other thingamajig or doohickey, one can always pay more than list price, or, more often, less than list price.

Every semi-serious stamp collector has a "trigger price," which they will willingly pay for something that they really want, which is totally independent of whatever particular number happens to be printed in any particular catalog.

For some, this amount is set in stone and it won't go up another dollar; for others it is "I don't care what it costs, I want it."

Sadly, I am in the former group...

Jim

"Professional Philatelist " have a financial interest to keep prices were they are at . You can't sell in a falling market and make a profit if the trend is downward . They [Professional Philatelist] are trying to stabilise the market . The whole idea of suggested bid is getting nocked down when the bids come in at half the suggested bid . What your seeing is S.B. of $1500 to $2,000 and it gets bids at $750.00 and it is a good sale if the price comes close to $1500 ,most of the time it will not break $1,000.00

I was totally shocked when I saw nice early Great Britain prices at Kelleher two auctions ago . Price are falling but I keep buying because I enjoy working on them . The stuff I see coming up for auction in the last two years has me in shock ,last year I purchase a lot of German Colonies at prices 20 years ago would of sold at twice the price. Last year I spend the whole years extra money putting together a impressive Colonies collection .

There are still areas that are holding prices like Tibet and Egypt and Turkey has gotten stronger . I just returned from Rasdale's in Chicago and they had strong prices across there whole auction catalog last week with a lot of internet bidding . I purchased British Colonies but had to pay above suggested bids .

There are definitely times where the market tries to follow Scott. Examples include Germany and several other Western European countries. Scott has lost their grip on how low demand is and how many examples are available of some sets. A good example is Germany 670-85. There are literally dozens of these sets for sale all over the internet (assuming you can find a mint set without fingerprints on the gum).

Spot on rodgcam. Yes,the most desirable rarities might hit or exceed, or even break records but I don't see cat prices being hit in general, even for rarities. One can say it's all about quality, but if you just focus on one high end auction like Siegel, and do a powersearch across a favorite classic mid to high value stamp, you will see nearly all examples to have traded lower than cat. There might be a jumbo gem that is an anomaly, but more often than not, it's not happening even with a 15-20% vig factored in for a VF specimen. Retail valuing systems are dishonest as are the sources for the data.

If I was a dealer and someone asked me how much a CIA invert realistically goes for at retail, would I pass on 12k or 17k? If I am truthful, my entire investment is sunk. Markup on this is nearly 40%. What's worse is that if the cat goes lower, it appears everything is evaluated against it.

The issues I see is that for most stamps Scott lists two values (unused- NH after a certain date or used) in one grade - VF. They do have expanded graded stamps for more classic US. Yet, you see dealers reference Scott when not meeting NH if after the year or in strict VF condition. It would be interesting if Scott listed prices in F-VF (closer to what many are sold) as the base rather than VF.

Scott seems to cater to a "traditional" dealer model - a vanishing breed. They also list a minimum value but we know many stamps have no real value. Of course, a lot of mostly common stamps is still not worth month.

But some sellers like Mystic actually charge more than catalog value.

The true value of any commodity is the price a willing buyer will pay for it. Catalog value and price list influence this amount but do not set it.

As far a professional philatelist go, most stamps and covers are not economically worth their time and overhead costs to handle. But most would be an interesting addition to someone's collection. Here lies the economic dichotomy facing the future of our hobby.

Its future will be in the eyes and hands of folks who enjoy spending their beer and cigarette (and other more modern vices?) money on philatelic material.

This is an age-old argument that will never be answered to everyone's liking and will continue as long as catalogues exist. By definition, all catalogue values are inaccurate. Why? Because prices vary by venue/platform. ebay prices differ from dealer prices differ from auction prices.

Catalogues are a reference point to compare different stamps and varieties. They are not gospel.

As a professional dealer who is relatively new to the trade I feel compelled to weigh in, but also ask: Why do so many of you spend your time and energy discussing ideas that are detrimental to the future of the hobby and by extension the value of your stamps? There are several such ideas like "modern stamps are only good for postage" and others. Meanwhile I see very little discusion and effort spent trying to make the hobby appealing and attractive to the next generation. I hear endless complaining about how young people are not interested in stamps. Is it any wonder though? I mean seriously, if you were a young person and you read the above thread would it attract you or repel you? Very simple question.

I think this is a destructive topic to the future of the hobby for several reasons, the main two being that it creates, spreads and fosters the perception that dealers are dishonest and of no value to the hobby and because it sets in motion and accelerates the general decline in market prices. Let me explain:

There are really only two broad reasons to collect anything:

1. You enjoy the hobby aspect. or
2. You collect for investment.

From what I can see most collectors try to do both. But the problem with this is that most stamps are not investment grade. Now, you can collect, if you are diligent, an obscure area for a lifetime, become the expert and sell your collection profitably, pretty well no matter what you paid, because you put the area on the map as it were. But you cannot do that with a mainstream collecting area with an already established market buying hobby grade material. I just doesn't work that way economically.

If you collect for the pure hobby aspect then the only thing that should matter is whether you can collect what you like for what you can afford. Part of being a mature adult too is accepting that you may not be able to afford what you want. The good news though is that there is so much material to choose from tbat most collectors should be able to find an area that they like and can afford. Then what matters is having a reliable source of supply. But that will only happen consistently if people can make an honest living supplying it. THAT is why catalogue values are as high as they are.

If you collect for investment then it is incumbent on you as an investor to behave responsibly and intelligently. Generally this means learning what is scarce and undervalued, acquiring it and then promoting it or at least not trashing its image in the broader marketplace. Think about it. Do you see real estate investors going around and telling everyone around them that the market is about to collapse? Of course not! They are trying to convince as many people as possible to invest in real estate. Because for them it is good when more people enter the market.

So, if the true reason that you keep discussing topics like this to death is because you want to see prices keep dropping because you think that makes you a saavy investor, stop. It does nothing of the sort. All it does is devalue everything you collected up until your latest purchase. If you want your stamps to be worth more than you paid spend your time and energy getting young people passionate about collecting WHAT IS INTERESTING TO THEM. Generally this will be the modern stuff. It may eventually spread to the classics but it is not going to start there. I really believe that if we all do that we see a resurgence in this hobby. How can't it? Stamps are soooo cool. So, lets stop turning people away from it by being so destructive.

If the reason you want prices to keep going down is to get stamps you couldn't afford before, stop. Because you won't get your wish for long. Eventually when stamp prices go so low that it is no longer worth anyone's time to sell them, then your sources of supply will dry up, and then where will you be?

I am sorry if my tone seems harsh. It is. It absolutely is. But as someone who loves this hobby so much and wants to see it have a bright future I am so tired of the energy spent on negativity. If you just want to pontificate and be right, why not do it with a positive idea rather than a negative one?

I understand that maybe the question is just an innocent one in which case the answer is that catalogue values are different from resale market prices is because they are and have always been intended for dealers who need to make a living for the service they provide same as any other professional. If you like acquiring your stamps randomly only from other collectors then power to you. But just don't expect anyone to buy your collection for cash on the spot when life happens and you need to sell.

Be careful what you wish for.

I do not believe that the question was why sales prices are too high but the exact opposite. Why are realizations almost exclusively low to mid range percentages of catalog value. People question why the disconnect between Scott values and actual realizations. At least I do. Again, I am aware that a ROM or outline of value is a necessity. You could try and do your own markey data evaluation but ground zero will always be the catalog value. No escaping it.

rogdcam, I appreciate your point. The main reason why auction realizations are often below catalogue is because an auction markwt is very limited. It will only ever be as strong as its mailing list, and sometimes people who would or could be interested in particular stamps are not in a position to partake.

If you look around you will see an increase in the incidence of auction sellers over retailers. Most offer no guarantees whatsoever to consignors and many condition their consignors into accepting low realizations by telling them that the market has declined. Because these businesses have no skin in the game beyond their general overhead, they don't generally care what an item sells for. This is why you see so many e-bay auctions with starting bids of a penny. No reputable seller who believes he owes a duty of care to his consignors ever starts anything at a penny.

The only reason why there are so many getting away with this is because the consignors are not the collectors themselves, but the heirs of their estates who do not know any better. Collectors who want bargains are only too happy to take advantage of the imperfect nature of these markets to score bargains. That, in my view is why so many realizations are below catalogue.

Like I said before it comes down to choices. Do you like being able to shop for exactly what you want and being able to sell for cash when you need to? If the answer is yes, then you need dealers to thrive. If the answer is "not really", then the current state of affairs is just fine.