Future Value Of Stamps

What do you guys think will be the future valuation of stamps
? I understand most of the 1950s doesnt have much value now but do you guys think it will be much higher after say - 50 years?Do you guys see scott values of stamps increased compared to 10 yrs before?
I think in future it will be all barcoded stamps and I think most colored stamps will not be used.. this could mean old colored stamps gets an antique value or it could be considered worthless.. let me know your thoughts..

Stamps that were common and cheap 100 years ago are still, by and large, common and cheap. Most stamps will continue to be worth pennies - or may not be sellable at all if the collecting market continues to contract.

As catalogue value sometimes increase over the years, your stamps will technically be worth more. So if catalogue presently gives a catalogue value of 25 cents, the value in 50 years could be 50 cents catalogue value.

But...

As Geoff mentioned stamps that are worth a penny now will probably be worth 2 cents but just like today more than likely the demand would not exist.

Dan

Historic trending of the US Zeppelin stamps
http://www.stampsmarter.com/learnin...gTrends.html

When accounting for inflation, the catalog value has not really increased over the decades.
Don

@51studebaker That was interesting..so it looks like values peaked in 80s and now came down..i think as Geoffha mentioned , collecting market contiunues to contract..youth is not interested in taking this up as hobby..

AravindMichigan: here is the issue. Stamps in the last 100 years, were nearly all printed (there are exceptions) in quantities in the 10s and 100s of millions. These stamps will NEVER increase. Anyone who wants them, can get them in bulk from 100s of sellers, that have no shortage of material. Anyone who tells you otherwise is trying to sell you on an idea that isn't real. There are millions of stamps on ebay, priced under face that sit there month after month without a buyer in sight.


The hobbyist trying to complete year sets for the last 100 years will have a fantastic looking album, but no value within it (outside of a maximum of face).
In fact, now that the post office began printing forever stamps, you are downside protected. Instead of a 3c stamp, still being worth 3c, a forever stamp has staying power locked in. So this has been an improvement.




This may be true, but 50cents will be worth 10c.


As far as the future is concerned, I have put my money where my mouth is, and that is in the modern error markets over the last couple of years. I believe that the last 100 years of stamps include some really interesting rarities/scarcities that are underappreciated in value and viewing desirability. For a few hundred bucks you can get a stamp under 1/50 available. Now whether someone will pay more for it in 5,10,20,50 years, is something noone knows. It will probably pale compared to a similar investment in AAPL, but if you treat it like a hobby the reward is immediate. This much I know.

Prices peaked in 1982 and declined again?

If you compare buyign a mint Zepp set in 1982, versus a similar investment in the MSFT ipo in 1986, your opportunity cost would be ~3 million. The finest c3a, only sold for ~1.6M.

I found this interesting paper on future of philately ..a good read.

http://www.abps.org.uk/Philatelic_C...hilately.pdf

Like anything it is about supply and demand. Anything.

I would love to get a hold of the historical catalog values for all stamps for all years (probably limited to singles mint hinged and mint used). There would be some very interesting results of an analysis of that data! I think the zeppelin issue is likely not a representative one. Based on the handful of old Scott catalogs I have, they spiked more than any others in the 80s when people were speculating with them. I still don't know why they sell for so much. Every auction has at least a handful and usually more than a dozen, ebay has hundreds, and dealers have tons of them. There seem to be more zeppelin stamps than collectors and they apparently change hands all the time.

Like the dollar value Columbians, German zepps and the Posthorn set, the Penny Black, USA #1, the 5-shilling Sydney Harbour Bridge, etc. they are stamps that are commonly seen, but popular with collectors for one reason or another.

There are lots of stamps that are scarcer, as you note, but not many more popular; hence they tend to trade at a higher value than stamps of similar number with lower demand.

I am at a project right now but I will let you you know.

What you describe here, is a market inefficiency and one can expect on an unknown timeline for this contradiction of efficient-market hypothesis to correct. The only issue is with time. It might take 50 or 100 years. For me, I rather hold the scarcer issues, than yet another Zepp set when push comes to shove. My belief is the deluge for this will hit, when some big dealers and collections die off and the heirs liquidate en masse. People holding out, will be left...holding the bag so to speak.

hey rismoney, how did you get that quote in a box in your response..i dont see that option to reply to someone or to a point when I reply ..

(quote)hey rismoney, how did you get that quote in a box in your response..i dont see that option to reply to someone or to a point when I reply .. (/quote)

Easiest way to explain : I copy and paste, like the above line, and then replace the round parenthesis, with squares brackets.