How Many Old 1800 Stamps Still Exist..??

Was having a coffee one night and started thinking about what my friend Jim ( big stamp collector ) told me and a dealer told me when it came to how many 1800's stamps still exist.

They told me the general theory is that approx.10% of old 1800 stamps may still exist.Now remember in the 1800's heating houses used wood burning stoves and the prime starter for fires was paper, even today it is done. This would include newspapers, mail and other forms of paper.

Now lets use a stamp I am familiar with ( for an example ), the Newfoundland Scott 57 ( 39a in N.S.S.C. catalouge ) dog stamp.

There were 20,000 orange/red stamps produced...If with use the accepted theory that only 10% survived, that would be 20,000 divided by 10% which is approx. 2000 stamps that survived. Now if we take into account the new "dog scratch" variety which is position 95 and appears in only 1 out of 100...That means only 20 stamps still exists, IF...IF they all survived, that means only 20 stamps are available for collectors...

It took me 4 years to find one, and I have seen one more...Now, how rare is this stamp, and how rare are other stamps in the same situation..??

Any comments or theories on how many old stamps may still be around for stamp collectors to collect...???

Robert

Nothing going on today eh ? :)

Peter

There is no reason to believe that the stamps that are left mirror the original distribution. Some stamps may only have 1 or 2 percent left, while others have a significantly more than 10%.

We can be pretty sure this is true knowing that there are a couple US stamps (Scott # 85A, Scott # 164)with one known copy and print runs larger than 10.

It is entirely possible that no copies of some varieties survived.

An important factor is how early the flaw is recognized. If it is not recognized until many years later, then they were not searched for at time of usage, and consequently "got tossed" with the rest of the daily mail.

I wouldn't be absolutely sure about the 90% disposal rate for Newfoundland stamps, because they have always been popular with stamp collectors. Don't know how you could do an accurate census on this.

Plate flaws seem to be widely disparaged by general stamp collectors..."fly specking" is the term used. I have sold just about every plate flaw I have put up for sale in circuit books and on the internet.

alub..You could be absolutely correct..No telling who has example to further classify how many of rare and not rare stamps existed till today.




Exactly what I was trying to get at bookbndrbob...The Scott 57 newfie dog scratch variety was only found on April.4.2015..Now you are correct saying if nobody was looking for the variety, a lot of them got tossed with regular stamps...Very hard to figure out how many Scott 56,57 and 58 "dog scratch" variety still exist...No one so far has produced a 3rd copy of the Scott 57 (N.S.S.C.39a)..Very frustrating to come to any conclusion.

Robert

Great discussion!

Of possibly equal importance is when a flaw or other variety gets listed by a major stamp catalog. Many collectors are unaware that certain varieties exist before a catalog decides to list them. And if the given variety has a decent to high catalog value, suddenly the motivation kicks in to look for examples, which makes new ones come to light along with many new potential buyers.

The percent remaining would also differ by type of stamp. For example, we would expect to see a considerably higher percentage of Jubilee stamps still existing due to it being a "philatelic" issue and thus very collectible from the get go. As compared to a "workhorse" low-value QV definitive of the same era. Of course much more of the QV would have been issued, but people wouldn't have saved them as collectibles as much as a Jubilee issue.

10% as a general rule of thumb seems extremely high to me - think of all the things that could happen to a stamp in the last 120+ years, given the vast majority of people don't care about stamps. I would think something like 2-5% would be closer.

In the absence of a modern-day census for an typical stamp issue - not just the real rarities - the percent that actually have survived is really a guessing game, isn't it?

And here I was, thinking I could corner the market on #65......

gmot...I did not want to belittle the amount of stamps that survived, BUT, your percentage is probably closer to reality that my 10%.

Now using my example of a variety and your percentage (lets say 4%), that would make the Scott 57 having only 8 stamps that theoretically that survived over 130 years...That is scary. WOW.




Keep looking Laurie 02...Took me 4 years ( Scott dog scratch variety) to find one.

Robert

I think gmot's figures are probably a good estimate.

bookbndrbob (I agree)...That would make rare stamps even rarer that most collectors think they are...Wish we could get information on Canada, USA and world stamps collectors to see what is really out there, or what is not out there.

Robert

Those "workhorse" stamps may not have been saved in large quantities by collectors, but they were saved by the general public who kept the letters letters they were used on.

Higher denomination stamps, used on packages and/or overseas mail, were more often tossed. I expect the percentages of those stamps that survived to be on the low end of the curve.

Just talked to a major stamp collector last night on the phone..He said "Robert, 10% is way to high, it is more like 2% and as low as 1% in some cases."

That really was an eye opener..Makes my Scott 57 even rarer...10% is 20 stamps...2% equals 4 stamps.

Robert

Here are a couple of examples how many may exist and are available to collectors at 2% survival..Remember if it is down to 1% then available stamps are cut in half...I have more examples.

Robert

There are many 19th century issues, mostly those intended primarily for collectors, that had survival rates exceeding 90%. Dollar-value Columbians or Jubilees come to mind.

Others had much lower survival rates, of course. There were billions of UK Penny Reds printed, there probably still are hundreds of millions, but I wouldn't be surprised if 80%-90% of them were destroyed as waste paper over the years.